Chen Yibo: Gold rebounds and remains sideways, while crude oil continues to rise or may be hindered in the short term...

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　　【goldAnalysis of the Latest Market Trends

Tuesday(12month7day)International gold prices rebounded, but the United States10The higher yield of one-year treasury bond bonds has limited the rise of gold price. Important inflation data will be released later this week, and the Federal Reserve is expected to be more proactive in tightening monetary policy. The data shows a significant decrease in unemployment rate last month, indicating that the labor market is tightening. This Friday(12month10day)The upcoming US consumer price index(CPI)The report will become a key determining factor in measuring the Fed's next steps. Federal Reserve policymakers may accelerate the reduction of stimulus measures at next week's policy meeting. The code reduction and interest rate increase of stimulus measures tend to push up the yield of government bonds and increase the opportunity cost of gold as a non yield asset. Analysts say: "Under the prospect of policy tightening, gold prices should gradually weakenCPIBeing hotter than expected will only lead to expectations for more aggressive actions by the Federal Reserve Analysts also cautioned that "the actual yield is still negative, so investors may plan to diversify their funds from bonds to other hedging targets, which may support gold." He added that this will ultimately depend on the hawkish nature of the Federal Reserve next week, andOmicronThe impact of variants on inflation expectations. The demand for physical gold has generally rebounded, coinciding with the Perth Mint2022The release of the Australian kangaroo series in. The feedback from our global distribution network is excellent.

From a technical perspective, the daily level gold price has recently seen mixed ups and downs, with bulls1800Struggling below, investors continue to wait for this Friday'sCPIThe data and next week's Federal Reserve resolution guide the direction. Technically speaking, bears are still strong, which is very unfavorable for bulls. Gold prices may resume their decline at any time. To turn the situation around, bulls need to regain the upper trend line1800Gateway. It is expected that the gold price will continue to fluctuate in the short term, with limited fluctuations. Investors can continue to wait and see, waiting for better trading opportunities. Preliminary resistance focus above12month6Daily high1787.75Further focus on psychological barriers1800.00as well as11month30Daily high1808.72。 Preliminary support and attention below10month29Daily low1772.07Further attention12month2Daily low1761.97as well as10month6Daily low1745.99。 In summary, Chen Yibo suggests that gold's operational strategy for today should focus on rebounding from high altitude, supplemented by a pullback from low, with a focus on the above1795-1800Frontline resistance, short-term focus below1755-1760Frontline support.

　　　　crude oilLatest Market Analysis

Monday（12month6At the beginning of the Asian market, US crude oil rose by more than2%Current report67.78dollar/Barrel, although non farm data disappointed last week, the unemployment rate decreased, and due toOPEC+Last Saturday, it was stated that if more and more COVID-19 lockdowns curb demand, policies to increase production in the short term may be reassessed to boost oil prices. local time12month5On the day, Iran's Chief Nuclear Negotiator and Deputy Foreign Minister Bageri stated in a media interview that Iran's position in demanding the lifting of illegal US sanctions against Iran will not change. He emphasized that it was the United States that2018The United States should take the first step as it withdrew from the nuclear agreement in. But last weekOPEC+If measures to curb the spread of the Omicron variant affect demand,OPEC+The door has been opened for rapid policy change. They said that next year1month4They may meet again before the next meeting on the th. Goldman Sachs, an investment bank, said that the current oil price level provides investors with an "irresistible" opportunity to readjust their positions to cope with the current round of structural bull market, while the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries(OPEC)The decision to increase production also supports this optimistic view. Overall,OPEC+Or adjust production policies based on the epidemic situation, coupled with the short-term favorable geopolitical situation in the Middle East for oil prices, oil prices may slightly increase in the short term. However, as the Omicron variant gradually emerges in various countries and confirmed cases in South Africa and other countries surge, concerns about it remain, and oil price increases are limited; Pay attention to the impact of the geopolitical situation on oil prices, and whether countries will further increase their epidemic restrictions under the spread of Omicron.

Technical analysis of crude oil: The trend of crude oil rose first and then fell last Friday, and ended lower in the early trading session67.59dollar/Barrel, continuing the previous day's upward trend after opening, fluctuated and rose, with the highest offer after the US market69.17dollar/The barrel level is obstructed, and there is a rapid drop in the tail end, with the lowest possible65.58dollar/Barrel, closing at66.33dollar/Bucket. The daily line includes a negative line, which first fell last week and then rose on Friday. The weekly level includes a negative line with a long shadow line, easing the weekly pattern of rapid decline in oil prices. Oil prices are rapidly falling to62.4After the first line, oil prices have rebounded. Currently, the fluctuation indicator is operating in the oversold area, and the indicator is inactive. It is expected that the oil price will62.4-69.4The interval has completed the vibration and bottoming. From an hourly level perspective, oil prices have shown a continuous downward trend of fluctuations this week, showing a pattern of slow rise and fast adjustment, but touched on Thursday62.4After the first line, there has been a surge in oil prices, breaking through the constraint of not breaking the previous high and further rising. For the future market, oil prices are expected to stabilize. The focus of today's opening is on whether oil prices can persist65.5-65.0Frontline, further breakthroughs69.1There will be a continuation of the upward trend in the future. Overall, Chen Yibo's personal suggestion for the short-term operation of crude oil today is to mainly focus on retracing lower prices, supplemented by rebounding higher, with a focus on short-term operations above69.5-69.8Frontline resistance, short-term focus below66-66.5Frontline support.

This article is provided by Chen Yibo. I interpret world economic news, analyze global investment trends, and conduct in-depth research on commodities such as crude oil, gold, and silver. Technical Director Chen Yibo explains a set online, returns losses, and provides real-time guidance on WeChat one-on-one. Accuracy and profit are the only criteria for testing strength! There is a current price list every day, you can come and experience it! Due to the delayed nature of online push, the above content is my personal suggestion. Due to the timeliness of online publishing, it is for reference only and at my own risk. Please indicate the source for reprinting.