according tomysteel数据,国内54个港口铁矿石总库存为1.54亿吨,已经超过去年峰值。从上图来看,曲线未能出现筑顶信号,库存仍将继续放大。预计澳大利亚的出口总额仍将下降。需要提醒的是,库存有高企的时候,就有低位徘徊的时候。现在的高库存不可能一直持续,未来必将在某个时间点出现下降。综合来看,短期铁矿石下跌,长期铁矿石终将走强(转折点尚未来临,仅为逻辑分析)。
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