Wang Decheng:5.3Review of last week's mid to long term layout and analysis of future coke power coal market

     Traders need to listen to the market. To effectively listen to the market, traders need to pay attention to their trading methods, and also pay attention to themselves like they pay attention to charts and markets. The challenge faced by traders is:To understand what kind of person one is, and then firmly and consciously cultivate those qualities that are conducive to one's successful trading.

    Many investment friends have recently approached me and said they want to work with me in the medium to long term. It's good to do mid to long term business, but it's not as easy as everyone thinks. Now, based on my ethylene glycol layout, I will review the difficulty of doing mid to long term business. My actual trainees know that I have been emphasizing to them every day for the past two weeks to hold the list firmly and persist in holding it. Why do I emphasize every day?Because the vast majority of friends are unable to hold onto their orders, especially when the losses on their orders continue to deepen, they begin to waver and question whether the orders were made wrong.

   

    The first order for ethylene glycol layout was from4750In the end, I don't know where ethylene glycol can fall, so my strategy is to enter the light warehouse and make up for orders in echelons. If ethylene glycol continues to decline, I will make up the order in batches. This is my layout idea, but when ethylene glycol slowly drops to4650At that time, I suggested decisively covering the position and controlling the entry point at4680Nearby, at this point, there are friends who follow orders and see losses100At one point, it began to shake, and various complaints began. When ethylene glycol continues to fall to4600When I was nearby, many people who said they absolutely trusted me and listened to my guidance at the beginning of this time changed their faces and started all kinds of roast, abusive and even life attacks. They said that the lower I was, the more progress I made, the more losses I made. So at this point, some people began to constantly suggest reducing positions or stopping losses without permission. Until ethylene glycol continues to fall to4550When I was nearby, I firmly believed that ethylene glycol had already bottomed out, so I suggested supplementing the position again and controlling the average entry price to4620reach4640At this point, as a layout person, this is the layout result I want: to control the order at the appropriate number of hands and entry points. But things went against my wishes, and at this time, another group of friends who followed orders did not understand my layout and dared not replenish their positions. There were more voices attacking my life, and I tried to explain that they didn't listen, so they saw the orders in front of them constantly losing money.

    The process of following orders is roughly like the above. One layout is a test of human nature, with various expressions. They just like to use a short-term trading approach to view your mid to long term layout, and few people truly achieve absolute trust and cooperation in the end. During the process, there are always people who withdraw with goodwill or malice, and there are always people who fall before dawn. Of course, those who actively cooperate in the end will definitely receive corresponding rewards. So I have always emphasized that the most important thing in the layout of the medium to long term is to adjust one's mindset and secure a stable order. When the order is in a loss state, the process of holding the order is very difficult.

    Alright, let me start the short-term market trend of iron coke and thermal coal main contracts in the future.

  coke2109Contract:

    This week, the spot price of coking coal has accelerated nationwide, and the second round of increase in downstream coking coal prices has quickly landed. Steel prices have broken through new highs, and there is room for coking coal to rise. The COVID-19 situation in Mongolia is severe, and the import volume of coal from Mongolia continues to be low. Safety inspections across the country are nearing completion, and with the addition of measures taken by the National Development and Reform Commission to ensure coal supply, coal production is expected to rebound. The operating rate of coal washing plants nationwide has slightly decreased. The National Energy Administration requires that the coal energy output be steadily reduced, and the 14th Five Year Plan carbon neutrality Plan has been issued one after another to limit the coal output and the coking coal supply is generally limited. The inventory of coking coal in coking plants and steel mills has decreased, and downstream companies are actively replenishing their inventory. The operating rate of downstream coking plants has decreased, and the maintenance of blast furnaces in various regions has gradually ended, leading to a rebound in demand. The main contradiction in the fundamentals of coking coal is the joint impact of policy restrictions on production and environmental safety inspections on the supply side, resulting in a continuous tightening of supply and a gradual strengthening of demand. The supply of coke fundamentals is tight, inventory is decreasing, and the demand side is gradually recovering. During the peak season of steel consumption, steel stock prices continue to decline7 During the week, terminal demand continued to improve. At present, the short-term fundamentals of the coke market have improved, with long-term oversupply. The contradiction is concentrated in the supply side's production restriction and spot price game, and coke prices will fluctuate and rise in the short term.

    Short term operation: adjustment of coke trend range, upward pressure adjustment The author suggests that radicals rebound2622and2636Short on the front line, steady ones step back2588and2571Long in batches.

   Steam coal2109Contract:

    The second quarter is usually the off-season of the coal industry, but since March and April this year, the price of thermal coal has risen against the trend,futuresThe price has reached a new high in eight years. At present, the inventory of thermal coal is tight, and the demand for replenishment of downstream thermal power plants is strong, which has also led to continuous upward exploration of coal traders' quotations. The year-on-year increase in spot prices exceeded50%。 According to the data of China coal industry Association,2021China's raw coal production increased year-on-year in the first quarter of the year16%。 From the perspective of downstream coal consumption industries, China's thermal power generation increased year-on-year in the first quarter of this year21%； The coal management tickets in the Ordos region of Inner Mongolia are issued according to the approved production capacity, and some mining areas are in urgent need, with the expectation of production suspension; The safety supervision and environmental protection in Yulin, Shaanxi are strict, and some coal mines have stopped or reduced production. YoY growth in steel production22%； Cement production has increased year-on-year47%。 The trend of coal prices in the later stage will mainly depend on the implementation effect of measures to increase production and supply. In fact, the main producing areas of thermal coal such as Inner Mongolia and Shaanxi are affected by factors such as safety and environmental protection, making it difficult to quickly release coal mine production capacity in the short term. At the same time, the summer electricity peak is approaching, and since5Starting from mid month, downstream power plants are actively preparing coal to increase downstream demand, and there is still support for steam coal prices in the short term.

    In terms of short-term operation: adjusting the range of thermal coal, breaking through the form, and gradually increasing the capacity, the author suggests stepping back782and778Long on the first line in batches.

    Investment is risky and entry into the market requires caution. The analysis is for reference only. The publication of articles is delayed, and friends who need real-time guidance and suggestions can do so. Persist in rational investment, don't think about getting rich overnight, and don't feel like you can't make any money at all. The market is there, and there will always be strong winners. Trading is a process of continuous growth. By constantly learning and summarizing experiences through trading, one day you will also become a person on the top of that tower. Author Wang Decheng, professional futures analyst, contributor to multiple financial media, futures industry qualification certificate numberT329796Qualification certificate number of financial planner:CICFPAGC1161851Contact WeChat Sync on your phone:15851503763。