Xie Hongyuan:4.24黄金跳水式暴跌,黄金走势分析附操作建议

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美国媒体纽约时报周四援引知情人士称，美国总统拜登下周将提议上调富人所得税和资本利得税税率，以此给儿童保育、普及学前教育和工人带薪休假等重大投资筹集约1万亿美元的资金。这项计划是白宫推动对美国税收制度进行全面改革，让富人和大企业缴纳更多税款的努力的一部分。据消息人士本周透露，拜登将提议将收入超过100万美元的个人的边际所得税税率从37%Increase to39.6%，将资本利得税税率提高近一倍至39.6%。路透社称，对于美国总统拜登准备调高资本利得税的提案能否获得参议院通过，华尔街人士抱持怀疑态度，但投资人认为，加税议题引发的卖盘仍可能打压在疫情期间飙涨的科技股等板块。拜登增税提议的消息，冲击市场情绪。

On Friday, the optimistic prospect of European economic recovery offset the market's concern about the sharp increase in the number of Indian COVID-19 Crown infections, and oil prices were basically stable for the day. As some European countries relax their pandemic restrictions, analysts remain optimistic about the recovery of oil demand. However, concerns over the worsening pandemic in major oil importing countries such as India and Japan continue to cause oil prices to fall more than this week2%. Adding to the optimistic expectations of economic data from Europe and the United States last week, the number of Americans applying for new unemployment benefits decreased to13个月低点。金晨熙认为“美国的石油需求前景继续走强。最新的每周失业救济人数为世界上最大的经济体带来了更多好消息。”进入夏季假期，大部分人被压抑许久的旅游和度假需求将得到释放，并进一步推动运输燃料的需求。他说：目前汽油和柴油的需求已经恢复到疫情前93%and100%。

黄金技术面：日线级别金价周四下跌，并在受到下行趋势线的支撑后小幅反弹，日内需警惕金价再度跌回趋势线下方。不过鉴于多头仍然占据上风，回调可能只是出于技术面指标修复的需要，后市重拾涨势的机会仍然较大。谢鸿远认为上行方面，需关注初步阻力1800关口，一旦得以收复1800一线，将大幅提振多头的信心，并有望再度挑战50%Retreat position1818，再进一步的阻力关注1850附近。下行方面，初步支撑关注下行趋势线所在的1775.94，进一步看向11month30Daily low point1764and23.6%Retreat position1743。金价日线需收需于1800美元上方，才能恢复双底看涨反转，下一个看涨目标为100Daily moving average1804美元，若金价突破点位，将测试2month24Daily high point1814美元。若金价跌破周四(4month22day)Low point1777美元，将测试本周低点1764美元，若进一步下跌，空头将指向21Daily moving average and50日移动均线汇合处1747USD. 综合来看，下周一短线操作思路上谢鸿远建议回调低多为主，反弹高空为辅，上方短期重点关注1800-1805Frontline resistance, short-term focus below1765-1770Frontline support.

Analysis of Paper Silver Market:

Paper silver4The hourly cycle is currently in a downward trend, and the upward structure of the four hour chart level fluctuation is extremely obvious. The moving average system presents a bullish pattern arrangement, and the thinking continues to be firm and bullish. Paper silver1The latest situation at the hour level. belong to1The overall hourly level maintains an upward trend, and there may be short-term setbacks within the day. The short-term operation maintains a much lower mentality, with the high point in the figure5.57-5.65Element is pressure,5.0Yuan is the support.4According to the hourly chart, due to5.0元支撑并没有受到破坏，所以谢鸿远认为纸白银重新上涨到5.57-5.65The probability is high. The paper silver cycle is still bullish, and there may be a rebound in the short term. In terms of operation, the main focus is still on low level layout.

silverTDTechnical analysis:

SilverTD: Silvertd早上开盘来回拉扯，产生全天最低点5324，随后反弹震荡，晚盘开盘下跌最低至5327随后快速拉升，最高至5398为全天最高，但行情并未延续，很快再次回落，收盘在5341点。白银td日线周二收下影线小阴K，行情延续周一的跌势，昨天晚上行情再次冲高回落，目前依然围绕60线附近展开震荡，多头量比进一步减弱；4小时震荡向上，多次收十字星，行情略有犹豫，白银进入盘整节奏，无明显方向，日内小周期进入粘合，整体来看，震荡偏空，日内还是先关注5300-5400区间的运行情况，如果行情选择突破，则进一步关注：上方5465-5495,Below5220-5250。