Wang Decheng: Consecutive Results of Midline Layout, Analysis of Short Term Market for Thread Egg Futures

    I wrote it this Monday night《4.13Main commodities such as methanol soybean meal and silverfuturesThe article 'Medium and Long Term Layout' provides information on soda ash, soybean meal, methanol, apple, ethylene glycol, palmPTAThe current prices of major commodity futures such as silver have a multi order layout in the medium to long term. As of now, Apple stopped losing and was eliminated on Tuesday before publication, while soda ash was eliminated on a breakeven basis yesterday, and silver was profitable111Profit from individual points and soybean meal77Individual points, methanol profit125Individual points, ethylene glycol profit153Individual points, palm profits202A point has reached our first stop profit target position7000Nearby, pursuing the second target location7300FrontlinePTAprofit223Reach our first target at a certain point and continue to pursue the second target position4820Nearby. This morning, I wrote 'Watching the Clouds Open and Seeing the Moonlight,',16The mid to long term layout strategy of Japanese palm soda ash futures has redeployed the mid line layout of soda ash and the second target layout of palm oil, both of which are currently making small profits at 20-30 points.

   

   You can take a look at this. This is the benefit of medium to long term operations. As long as you can hold onto the orders and see the big trends, the profits will be very considerable. Moreover, the time to hold the orders is not very long, usually about half a month, and a short week is enough, not as many months as many people imagine. Of course, the prerequisite is that you must have a stable mindset, be able to hold onto orders with composure, and not be eager to drop orders after making profits or losses of dozens of points. Only a very few people can achieve this. Is it difficult to make profits in futures? Actually, it's not difficult either. The difficult thing is mentality. So I suggest that all investment friends abandon the mindset of only operating short-term operations every day and have in their minds the idea of medium to long term layout. It is really difficult to make money purely by doing short-term operations.

   Okay, let's get back to business. Now we are starting to analyze the short-term market trends of thread and egg futures.

   thread2110Contract:

    In terms of fundamentals: Currently, the supply of threaded products is stable and weakening, and demand remains at peak season levels. Except for cold-rolled steel, the inventory situation is good. Before the implementation of high prices, high profits, and production reduction policies, price performance is sensitive and susceptible to significant fluctuations caused by various market news. It also takes some time for high prices to propagate downstream. Recently, there has been an imbalance in the prices of Tangshan steel billets and steel billets in other regions, with expectations of repair and rebalancing. The current price is seeking a balance between production pressure and raw material price control, and the price probability needs to wait for the determined policy to be implemented before starting the smooth market in the second stage. The thread continues to show a strong performance in both supply and demand, with a slight increase in production, currently rising to35710000 tons, compared to2019Increase over the same period of the year10Ten thousand tons, but with high profits, the operating rate of the electric furnace continues to rise, and supply may continue to increase without policy constraints. However, similar to the fourth quarter of last year, the current large price difference of coil coils will also limit the increase in thread production. With the influx of steel billets from other regions into Tangshan, the latter's prices are facing a decline, and support for thread prices will also weaken. Including the decline in strip steel and billets, poor transmission of downstream orders, and the attention of the Financial Commission to the rise of commodities, multiple orders need to reduce their positions at recent highs3The monthly sales of heavy-duty truck excavators remain at Aowei, and the demand for construction is still good. Before the slowdown in inventory removal, there may be limited room for decline. After a pullback, it is still recommended to operate more, and the high price difference of rolling screws is expected to narrow.

    In terms of short-term operation, the thread quantity can gradually increase, the trend range will rise, and the trend will break through pressure. In terms of operation, the author Wang Decheng suggests that5080reach5180High throw and low suction in the interval, rolling operation, mainly low with high altitude as a supplement.

   egg2109Contract:

    Fundamentals: From the perspective of column supplementation,2、3The enthusiasm of monthly farmers to supplement their livestock has increased, and the spot prices of feed raw materials such as soybean meal and corn have decreased after the holiday. The decrease in feed costs has led to an increase in farmers' enthusiasm for supplementing their livestock. Moreover, the current vacancy rate among farmers is high, and the potential for supplementing their livestock is also significant. From the market research results, it can be seen that there are significant differences in the replenishment of columns, with active replenishment of columns in the scale market and differentiation of small and retail investors' replenishment, which requires further attention4The situation of monthly column supplementation. Recently, the overall demand for eggs has been weak, not as high as the same period last year. The low spot price of eggs in the same period last year has stimulated consumption, but the current spot price of eggs is relatively high in the same period in history, which has a certain degree of restraint on consumption. This year, e-commerce has sold more goods than in previous years, squeezing out the share of the trade market. From a seasonal perspective, the demand for eggs is currently in the off-season of seasonal consumption. From the perspective of substitutes, the recent decline in pork and vegetable prices has also dragged down egg prices.

    In terms of short-term operation, the trend range of eggs is adjusted, with a focus on shape adjustment, while the overall trend range is consolidated. In terms of operation, the author suggests stepping back4900Lay out a multi order strategy on the front line.

    Investment carries risks and entry into the market requires caution. The market analysis of the article is delayed, and the analysis is for reference only. Friends who need real-time guidance and advice can. Persist in rational investment, don't think about getting rich overnight, and don't feel like you can't make any money at all. The market is there, and there will always be strong winners. Trading is a process of continuous growth. By constantly learning and summarizing experiences through trading, one day you will also become a person on the top of that tower. Author Wang Decheng, professional futures analyst, contributor to multiple financial media, futures industry qualification certificate numberT329796Qualification certificate number of financial planner:CICFPAGC1161851Contact WeChat Sync on your phone:15851503763。