李钜鑫：晚间美盘黄金上行暂遇阻?短期调整后蓄势再涨

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　　goldMarket trend analysis:

Wednesday(4month7day)亚市盘中，美元指数略微反弹，现报92.35附近；现货黄金短线快速下滑，一度逼近1735dollar/盎司，较日内高点回落近10美元。本交易日，投资者将迎来美联储会议纪要，预计将引发市场行情。分析人士指出，若假会议纪要将针对美联储加息的市场预期提前，则美元可能会上涨，而金价恐遭受打击。受美元走软和美国国债收益率下降的提振，现货黄金周二上涨近1%。现货黄金收报1743.27dollar/Ounces, up14.97USD or0.87%Touching in the disc3month25The highest level since the beginning of the day1745.51dollar/盎司。不断下滑的美国国债收益率往往有利于非收益资产黄金。然而，由于美国股市创纪录的上涨，黄金的涨幅似乎有限。此外，FOMC会议纪要仍是市场关注的焦点，市场将关注美联储对经济和通胀前景的新暗示，这可能对金价产生重大影响。与此同时，黄金交易员可以从更广泛的市场情绪和美元价格走势中寻找线索，这取决于美债收益率的动态。

　　根据日线结构，短线黄金很有可能会继续处在趋势线压力1750-55下方，以及均线带上方进行震荡，如果上破则再视其为有效突破，多头的反击将得到确认和延续，而如果行情跌回均线带下方，或者均线带1735-25内，那么都很有可能会将双底W形态演变为大周期的横盘震荡，加大中长线的看跌预期。小时图上，短线黄金上涨波段已经完成三波短线上涨，具备技术性回修调整预期，这是和日线级别走势预期相矛盾的地方，前两日也对此矛盾风险有所提及。从今日早间黄金出现一波回撤，回到1740下方的运行节奏来看，当前小时图按照技术走势预期运行的可能性偏大，日内黄金已经展开技术性回修，小时图回修可先看1730附近争夺，至于1720-20一带，依然是关键中的关键，是否回到1730以下，以及是否会回撤1722-20，也都会改变日线级别的预期。

　　近期金价持续收涨进一步维稳于日线移动平均线技术指标支撑压力位价格区间，短期金价形成对日线40日均线压力位回踩走势，技术指标压力位价格维持将进一步巩固当前偏多延续，整体日线移动平均线呈粘合收窄形态，随着短期金价走高日线短周期均线呈向上交叉金叉偏多排列形态。小时线显示短期区间上移逐步企稳，带来短周期技术指标较为规整向上发散排列，维持短线较为强劲偏多指引形态。4小时技术指标随着短期金价走高，较为规整向上发散多头形态逐步显现，显示出上行初期技术指标稳定性逐步显现，整体偏多走势延续。综合来看，今日黄金操作上建议回调做多为主，反弹做空为辅，上方重点关注1745-1750Frontline resistance, short-term focus below1725-1720Frontline support.

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This article is provided by Li Juxin. I interpret world economic news, analyze global investment trends, and conduct in-depth research on commodities such as crude oil, gold, and silver. Technical Director Li Juxin explains a set online, pays back losses, and provides one-on-one real-time guidance on WeChat:（GOLD68668）Due to the delayed nature of online push, the above content is my personal suggestion. Due to the timeliness of online publishing, it is for reference only and at my own risk. Please indicate the source for reprinting.