Chen Yibo:4.7现货黄金期货原油今日行情趋势及操作建议

　gold伦敦金行情分析



　　金价周二上涨约1%，触及逾一周最高，受助于美元回落和美债收益率走低；陈亦博认为，美元指数下跌和美债收益率下降暂时给金价带去提振；这波涨势不一定是可持续的，我认为1750美元是一个阻力位；美元跌至近两周最低，令黄金对其他货币持有者来说更便宜，而指标美债收益率也走低；标普500指数周二连续第四个交易日触及纪录高位，受复苏希望重燃提振；数据显示美国2月职位空缺增幅超过预期；投资者也在等待美联储将于周三发布的会议记录，以寻找有关其货币政策的更多线索；克利夫兰联储主席梅斯特周一表示，美国经济前景正在变得光明，并称美联储应坚持宽松货币政策，以帮助进一步支持增长。



　　《黄金观点分析》



　　黄金从日线上来看，昨日小幅回踩未破5、10日均线，且最终又收在均线带上方，日线以小阴十字星收线，整体状态是略显偏强的，但力度较小，需要跟多的支撑推动，附图指标看MACDandKDJ的看涨信号仍然较强，短线行情或有进一步的回升，初步关注1750Resistance, further attention1755强阻力，所以上方空间也很有限，而下方关注短期均线1727-1722区域支撑，一旦行情回到其下方，基本可视作为再度转跌信号。四小时来看，黄金自低位1678一线直接拉起后，当前布林带即将收口，MAEqual-line bonding,KDJThree lines of random indicators converge upwards,MACD指标红色动能柱开始缩量，快慢线平行向前，短线量能稍有放缓，上涨的延续性也不强，短线还是倾向于拉锯震荡。综合来看，陈亦博建议上方阻力关注1750-1755First line, support attention from below1727-1722frontline.



Analysis of Paper, Silver and Silver Trends:



Paper silver4The hourly cycle is currently in a downward trend, and the upward structure of the four hour chart level fluctuation is extremely obvious. The moving average system presents a bullish pattern arrangement, and the thinking continues to be firm and bullish. Paper silver1The latest situation at the hour level. belong to1The overall hourly level maintains an upward trend, and there may be short-term setbacks within the day. The short-term operation maintains a much lower mentality, with the high point in the figure5.57-5.53Element is pressure,5.0Yuan is the support.4According to the hourly chart, due to5.0The yuan support has not been damaged, so Chen Yibo believes that paper and silver have risen again to5.32-5.57The probability is high. The paper silver cycle is still bullish, and there may be a rebound in the short term. In terms of operation, the main focus is still on low level layout.

Beautycrude oilMarket trend analysis:



US Energy Information Administration(EIA)Tuesday（4month6日）发布了原油市场月度报告，报告称，预计2021年美国原油日产量将减少2710000 barrels to1104万桶，降幅大于此前预估的16万桶。美国石油产量增长缓慢，尽管油价攀升，因大型上市公司在投资者的压力下保持资本约束，保留现金。EIA的预测包括了美国2月份原油产量下降8010000 barrels/日的估计，主要因为美国大部分地区受低温影响，尤其是德克萨斯州。EIAestimate2021年第二季度的平均产量将达到109010000 barrels/日，第四季度将增加到114010000 barrels/日。该机构表示，预计2021年美国石油和其他液体燃料消费量将增加13210000 barrels to194410000 barrels/日，增幅低于此前预估的14110000 barrels/日增幅。预计美国2021年的平均汽油消费量将为86010000 barrels/日，高于2020Of80010000 barrels/日，但低于2019Of93010000 barrels/Day.



　　原油观点分析：油价仍处于震荡走势，短线略微偏向震荡下行。周线级别：单边上涨后回调；K线相对高位的“黄昏之星”顶部信号仍在，KDJDead fork operation,MACD也有死叉趋势，油价初步见顶，后市偏向震荡下跌。日线上：原油震荡；MACDDead fork,KDJ金叉，留意布林线中轨62.12阻力和布林线下轨支撑57.06区域的突破情况；也可以参考59.33-62.32The regional breakthroughs are as follows:55Daily moving average support and21日均线阻力。鉴于3month18日大阴线后21日均线对油价压制明显，后市仍略微偏向震荡下跌。若跌破近期低点57.25附近支撑，则看向100Daily moving average53.73附近支撑。若油价意外上破21Daily moving average62.32附近阻力，则增加后市看涨信号。综上所述，操作上陈亦博建议反弹做空为主，上方阻力关注61.8-62.3First line, support attention from below58.5-58.0frontline.
Chen Yibo's WeChat account:18664848236