Chen Yibo:4.5Analysis of the trend of gold bullish market and operational strategies for gold bullish market

goldMessage analysis: As the gold price changes from1700There was a double dip rebound below the US dollar, and Wall Street analysts' bullish sentiment towards the gold market has increased. However, gold prices still face key resistance levels, and retail investors still question whether they can continue to rise. Since this week, the upward momentum of US bond yields has faded, and the previous upward trend has been sluggish. Now large Japanese insurers are considering buying US bonds again, suggesting that the further upward space of US bond yields may be limited, which also reflects the changes in market sentiment, which also implies that the further downward space of gold prices may be limited. Especially when it comes to gold prices1677After gaining support nearby, Kuaixun rebounded to1730Nearby, there is a hint of strong bargain hunting, and there is also a possibility of a double bottom in the technical side. The opportunity for bullish gold in the medium to long term is increasing. Gold market analyst Chen Yibo believes that the gold market has formed a "double bottom" in the short term, but believes that gold prices need to break through1750Only when the US dollar is above can it continue to rise; If a successful breakthrough is achieved, gold prices are expected to further rise1800USD. But he also warned that the current rebound in gold prices may be a short covering, as bond yields have recently declined, so this will certainly help gold. However, if bond yields start to soar again, it may lead to a significant decline in gold prices.





   Gold technical aspect: From a market perspective, the monthly price is22The monthly moving average is supported, with expectations for this month rising first and then falling later. Looking at the daily chart, the strong buying power of the Great Yang has eaten up the lost land on Tuesday, so this power will continue. At least the strong Yang on the daily chart has limited the space for today's decline. The Great Yang on the daily chart is only a significant correction of the downward trend, but it is still too early to say a reversal because the positive line has been excessively pulled up, and the moving average cannot keep up, which is the second significant upward trend, The daily chart still needs to be confirmed again and again. As the market is closed on Friday, it is expected to be confirmed by next Tuesday. Therefore, in terms of time, bulls will continue. From a four hour perspective, the current price has experienced a setback after encountering obstacles. In this situation, there are expected to be two situations: one is a slight decline and a direct upward trend, forming a sharp upward trend; the other is that the gold price has undergone a downward trend. For the moving average, a direct significant upward trend is not enough time, and at least two to three factors need to be correctedKThe confirmation of the official daily chart after a single upward trend can only be carried out, so for next week, there is a bias towards correction and the overbought space repair index is traded for time. Therefore, a single upward trend is not scary, and whether it can continue is the key. From the perspective of multi cycle quantification, the focus above the daily line is suppressed1738-1740Here, the upper limit is1760For the upcoming week60That's not realistic either. And the four hour chart is expected to repeat two to three timesKFrom a horizontal to vertical perspective, if the price rebound is too deep, it directly affects the continuity of the upward trend, so for the expected decline1705It is an ideal multi entry point. Overall, Chen Yibo suggests that the top focus should be on the operation1738-1740Frontline resistance, short-term focus below1705-1700Frontline support.



Analysis of Paper, Silver and Silver Trends:



Paper silver4The hourly cycle is currently in a downward trend, and the upward structure of the four hour chart level fluctuation is extremely obvious. The moving average system presents a bullish pattern arrangement, and the thinking continues to be firm and bullish. Paper silver1The latest situation at the hour level. belong to1The overall hourly level maintains an upward trend, and there may be short-term setbacks within the day. The short-term operation maintains a much lower mentality, with the high point in the figure5.57-5.53Element is pressure,5.0Yuan is the support.4According to the hourly chart, due to5.0The yuan support has not been damaged, so Chen Yibo believes that paper and silver have risen again to5.32-5.57The probability is high. The paper silver cycle is still bullish, and there may be a rebound in the short term. In terms of operation, the main focus is still on low level layout.


SilverT+Dquotations analysis



SilvertdThe daily line has ushered in a long-awaited positive line. Despite a sharp sell-off last night, it suddenly rose sharply, causing a slight decrease in bearish positions compared to bearish positions. The moving average still remains downward,MACDThere are signs of passivation on the express line and signs of a stop in the market, but the overall situation is still relatively short;4From an hourly perspective, after a continuous decline this week, the market finally rebounded last night, and the bullish market showed signs of strength,60The moving average starts to flatten out,MACDThe initial success of the golden fork indicates a bearish rebound in the market;1At an early age, Lianyang rebounded and directly broke through the Bollinger medium track. Although it fell back, it still stood firm on this line. Currently, it is operating near the Bollinger medium track, transforming from pressure to support, and the moving average only exists60The line forms a short line pressure, and the multi head gauge can maintain a release state,MACDFast Line Breakthrough0The slope of the axis is acceptable, and the market is more conducive to a rebound. Biden likes to send assists! Overall, Chen Yibo believes that silverTDAlthough the overall trend is favorable for bears, there is a desire and motivation for continued rebound in the short term within the day, with a focus on the changes in bullish capacity and4hour60The suppression situation of the line can be increased earlier in the day, and only when the bullish amount is obvious can it be opened short.



SilverT +DOperation suggestions:



SilverTD 5110-5130Short selling in batches nearby, stop loss5160, look at the goal5050-5010nearby



SilverTD 4980-5000Most batches nearby, stop loss4950, look at the goal5050-5100nearby



　　crude oilMarket trend analysis;



　　4month1Japan and the United States saw a slight increase in crude oil, while Iran's exports increasedOPEC+Lowering demand expectations has raised concerns among bulls and attracted widespread market attentionOPEC+The ministerial meeting to be held within the day will discuss5Monthly production level, widely expected by the marketOPEC+The current scale of production reduction will be maintained, which may provide support for oil prices. The attitude of Saudi Arabia needs to be closely monitored. Technically speaking, oil prices are temporarily in a volatile trend, with significant short-term fluctuations and a slight bias towards bearish positions in the short term.



From a daily perspective, it fluctuates;MACDThe dead cross signal continues, and the mid track of the Bollinger Line has a significant impact on oil prices. In the short term, there is a possibility of once again exploring the support of the offline track of the Bollinger Line. Currently57.02Nearby, if the support is breached, increase the neutral bearish signal; Further support reference2month4Daily low point55.30Nearby, then54.87Location, which is33.64-67.98Upward trend38.2%Retract position. Focus on100Daily moving average53.34Nearby support,1month13Daily high point53.93The location also needs attention, as it is located in the1The month is a period of strong resistance, which has now transformed into a period of strong support. Due to the interweaving of moving averages, the short-term variables are relatively large;KDJGold fork operation, oil prices still hold55Daily moving average59.15Above, if we regain the upward trend and break through the middle track of the Bollinger Line62.16Above, there will be an increase in bullish signals in the future.



　　4From an hour's perspective, it oscillates; Continue to pay attention to the middle track of the Bollinger Line58.74-62.06Regional breakthrough situation. at presentMACDDead fork, if it falls below the Brin line58.74Nearby support increases short-term bearish signals. becauseKDJApproaching the overbought area, if the oil price adheres to the support near the lower track of the Bollinger Line and rebounds to the middle track of the Bollinger Line60.40Above, short-term bullish signals will be added. Further reference57.25-63.13Regional breakthroughs will indicate the direction of the central line trend. Overall, in terms of crude oil operations next Monday, Chen Yibo's personal suggestion is to start with empty first and then increase, with the top following62.0-62.5Resistance, short-term focus below60.0-59.5Frontline support. writing/Chen Yibo 【 WeChat Yixin 】Yb663665】