3.23Will gold and silver continue to rise? silvertdMarket analysis and the latest strategy for crude oil unwinding

We all know that long-term trading is the most profitable way, but why can't the vast majority of people take advantage of long-term trading? That's because first, the long-term test of human nature is too great. As I once said, forcibly distorting human nature cannot last long. Smart people should find a way that suits them. The second point is that there should be strong psychological support in the long term, and where does this psychological support come from? It's impossible to rely on ideas.

After many people make a profit and exit, the market does not reverse, but continues to move forward, they will be very depressed and feel that they have made less money. It is precisely because of this despondent mentality that they will once again chase up and down, or even touch the top to copy the bottom. The way people think is not the way they win.

We know that transactions require reasons, either technical reasons or fundamental reasons. Without fundamentals as a backing, relying solely on technology is not enough to become a professional trader with the psychological support to resist long-term fluctuations. So, those who can't hold onto the list don't need to be upset because they can't hold onto the list. You just need to hold onto the list within your own tolerance.

　　gold价格数据分析：

Message: Monday（3month22日）现货黄金震荡走弱，回落至1740关口下方，因美债收益率持续上涨，增加了持有黄金的机会成本，而且美元指数也小幅上涨，逼近逾一周高位；技术面方面，金价受到布林线中轨压制，短线面临重回跌势的风险。上周五（3month19日）金价小幅上涨0.51%，因美国国债收益率经前一交易日飙升后回稳，且通胀忧虑和本周股市的不安情绪给予黄金支撑力。另外，数据显示全球最大的黄金ETF-SPDR Gold Trust的黄金持仓量十连跌后首次增加3.5吨。美债收益率的上涨或仍将成为主要的金价利空因素，如果美联储官员对美债收益率的上涨继续默不作声，可能加大美债空头的抛售。另外，股市上涨也将提振市场风险情绪，打击避险黄金。利多方面，地缘政治的博弈加剧以及拜登政府继续推行刺激计划的进展可能提振黄金的吸引力，欧洲第三波疫情的爆发也可能吸引部分欧洲资金进入金市。本周主要关注四季度GDP终值、2monthPCE物价、美债收益率走势及美联储官员讲话等。日内美联储主席鲍威尔将在21:00发表讲话。本周关注焦点仍然是美债收益率及美联储官员的讲话。

　　技术面：李潇翰从日线来看，金价短线陷入横盘震荡，目前仍然受阻于上方趋势线的阻力，若日内能强势顶破并站上趋势线，多头有望继续推高金价，反之，金价可能继续震荡或重启跌势，单边下跌后反弹受阻；布林线中轨持续压制金价，KDJ在接近超买区域有死叉趋势，金价面临重回跌势的风险，10日均线和上涨趋势线支撑在1731.57附近，上周低点支撑在1720关口附近，若失守该支撑，则增加短线看空信号。由于MACD金叉信号仍在，若金价守住10日均线，并顶破布林线中轨1747.95Nearby resistance is expected to be further explored1760关口阻力，并增加短线看涨信号。进一步阻力在1959-1676Downtrend38.2%Retreat position1784.70附近。中长期看跌趋势暂未改变，短期有望迎来继续反弹或筑底后反弹。4小时级别震荡；金价在布林线上轨附近受阻后回落，目前初步失守布林线中轨1735.83Location,MACD金叉形成受阻，短线走势变数加大，略微偏向进一步试探布林线下轨1722.37附近支撑，若下破该支撑，则金价有望启动新一轮跌势。若能守在布林线下轨1722.37附近支撑，则仍需提防金价震荡延续反弹走势的可能性。综合来看，今日短线操作思路上李潇翰建议回调低多为主，反弹高空为辅，上方短期重点关注1750-1755Frontline resistance, short-term focus below1720-1725Frontline support. The operation suggestions in the article are for reference only, and specific suggestions are given at the current price of the actual offer. Friends who are not ideal in operation or cannot grasp the market direction can add Li Xiaohan's official WeChat account:lxhq281Obtain guidance slots.

Spot silver price analysis:

　　现货白银从日线级别看，上周和黄金走势差不多，多空陷入胶着状态，日线阴阳线交替出现，本周也是要面临突破，所以比较关键的时候，若是有效突破下跌趋势线的（26.50-26.80）话继续看涨，上方重要阻力可以参考27.50and28附近，若是有效跌破上涨趋势线的（26-25.70）话行情继续下跌，下方重要支撑参考25and24.20附近；无论怎么走是，行情突破势在必行。（个人建议，仅供参考）

Silvertd价格分析：

SilverTD技术面依然参考现货白银，我们要注意的就是本周的重要支撑位5100-5120，4950-4900，其中到了4930附近能企稳的话可以做一波多单，止损80Point, stop profit150-300点。上方压力位5600Nearby, and5720-5750附近，其中5750附近是做一波空机会，目标200-400点，止损80点。（个人建议，仅供参考）

　　crude oil价格数据分析：

　　消息面：上周WTICrude oil closed down6.36%，上周四(3month18day)更一度重挫10%Created from2020year4月以来的最大单日跌幅。但即使如此，WTI原油于上周最后一交易日仍反弹逾2%，再度企稳于60.0美元心理关口上周。值得留意的是，据美国商品futuresTrading Committee(CFTC)According to the published data, as of3month16Day and week,WTI原油期货投机性净多头头寸仍录得增加3232Hand to411107Hand.

　　油价的大幅回调主要受累于市场对主要经济体复苏进程分化(欧盟或全面进入第三波疫情当中)以及原油库存维持于高位(IEA强调目前原油库存仍较五年均值水平高出630010000 barrels)，但即使这样，在OPEC 维持对产量控制以及大部分主要经济体前景趋向乐观情况下，预计WTI原油仍难出现连续性的大幅回调行情。值得留意的是，目前市场似乎对美债收益率的持续上涨甚为担忧，尤其10年期美债收益率在上周美联储的宽松表态后进一步攀升至1.754%, refresh from2020year1Since the beginning of the month14个月新高。本周继续关注欧洲疫情及阿斯利康疫苗的接种情况，另外APIAndEIAThe crude oil inventory data also deserves special attention.

　　技术面：从日线上来看，油价跌破中轨63After that, the adjustment space accelerated to decline. Although the support near the lower track rebounded, the range was small, and the daily line finally closed a super large negative line. The physical space of the negative line was close to giving up the rebound space about a month ago. The short positions of various indicators were arranged. The daily line further looked at the adjustment, and the lower part focused on the lower track58.2Nearby support, if it falls below this support again, it will increase the risk of bearish midline, otherwise it will see a rebound, while the upper mid track63一线可视作为中期行情的关键压制。李潇翰从四小时来看，油价双阴回落跌破下轨后进一步延伸，短线空间释放比较快，指标跟不上下跌速度，今日预计先走一波反弹修正，拉动均线指标拐头向下，本周初再延续下跌，所以今日不可过分追空，看回落也要等到反弹后再择高空，上方关注MA5Short term moving average62.5Suppress, pay attention to yesterday's low point below58.2支撑。综合来看，今日短线操作思路上李潇翰建议以反弹高空为主，回调做多为辅，上方短期重点关注62.8-63.5Frontline resistance, short-term focus below60.0-59.5Frontline support. The operation suggestions in the article are for reference only, and specific suggestions are given at the current price of the actual offer. Friends who are not ideal in operation or cannot grasp the market direction can add Li Xiaohan's official WeChat account:lxhq281Obtain guidance slots.

Li Xiaohan's WeChat:lxhq281】International gold, crude oil, Shanghai gold, Shanghai silver, paper gold, paper silver, gold silverTDComprehensive online guidance and analysis; Li Xiaohan focuses on international gold (ShanghaiTD金银，期货金银）、美原油（上海期货原油）行情分析与指导！准确率和利润是检验实力的唯一标准！每天都会有现价单，可以前来体验！做交易，多动多错，越勤劳越“负”，勤劳致富在做交易方面是个伪命题；狼狩猎，大部分时间都在等待而不是不停地尥蹶子！李潇翰多年实战，经验丰富！倡导中线为主，短线辅助；杜绝频繁操作，轻仓布局；风控为王，方能稳定盈利！

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Whether it's too late or too early, nothing will stop you from becoming the person you want to be. There is no time limit for this process, and it can start anytime you want. Investment is also a process of accumulation, whether it is accumulating experience or wealth, or accumulating some technical knowledge. However, some friends blindly enter the market and fantasize about how much they can earn before they even start. Little do they know that venture capital, where returns and risks coexist, can help you calm down when you are blind or confused, summarize your own shortcomings, and learn more experience, This way, there will be fewer mistakes in this market, one step at a time, and a steady pursuit of victory.

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