Tan Xinsheng:3.22黄金走势持续盘整 晚间操作警惕拉盘风险

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goldInformation analysis:

本周一亚洲市场上，金价小幅下跌，抹去了前一交易日的微弱涨幅，尽管没有任何强劲的后续抛售。欧市盘中，现货黄金维持跌势，目前交投在1730下方。日内金价下滑，因土耳其央行总裁换人，由高利率批评者接替，引发金融不确定性，导致投资者涌向美元及债券等其他避险资产。

在美国经济前景乐观的背景下，美元从联邦公开市场委员会(FOMC)决议之后的波动低点反弹，在新的一周开始时走强。投资者对美国相对较快地从疫情中复苏仍持乐观态度，这一直在助长通胀上升的预期，并让人怀疑美联储是否会在较长一段时间内维持超低利率。这反过来又给以美元计价的大宗商品带来了一些压力。不过，美国国债收益率的持续回落抑制了美元的强劲上涨。事实上，基准的10年期美国国债收益率从上周触及的逾一年高点进一步回落，这被视为抑制这种无收益黄金进一步下跌的关键因素。除此之外，围绕股市的普遍谨慎情绪进一步推动投资者转向避险黄金。

本周来看，市场首要焦点仍然是鲍威尔的发言。他将于周二及三分别与财长耶伦一同出席国会委员会发言，就经济与利率前景发表看法。今日晚间21点鲍威尔将于周一在国际结算银行(BIS)发表讲话。对于本周鲍威尔的多次发表讲话中，若是提及美债收益率或者影响美债收益率的信息，都会引起市场波动。金价目前上行空间似乎有限，因投资者似乎不愿在鲍威尔在一个虚拟小组讨论中发表讲话前押注看涨。与此同时，更广泛的市场风险情绪、美国债券收益率和美元价格动态可能继续影响贵金属。

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Gold market analysis:

技术面来看，到目前为止，黄金成功地扞卫了短期上升趋势线的支撑。然而，在1740-1743区域上方缺乏强劲的后续买盘，因此在为金价进一步升值布仓之前，需要谨慎一些。此外，在FOMC会议之后，金价的积极走势在水平支撑转为阻力1760-1765之前受挫，这有利于看跌。

如果持续跌破上述趋势线支撑位，目前接近1728区域，将重申负面偏向，并为进一步走软铺平道路。到那时，黄金可能会变得脆弱，跌破1723-1720区域的中间支撑位将加速滑向1700美元的关口。金价的下行轨迹可能进一步延伸，并将其拉回至数月低点——本月稍早触及的1677-1676附近。下一个相关看跌目标位于1650区域，进一步看向1625-1620Region and1600Gateway.

上行方面，任何有意义的上行可能会继续遇到1760-1765附近的强劲阻力。一个令人信服的突破可能会引发空头回补，推动金价进一步向1800美元的大关回升。随后是1813-1815美元区域附近的阻力位，如果该区域被果断突破，将为近期进一步升值创造条件。

1小时图上看，经过亚盘的两次冲高回落后，形态已经向下微微开口，早盘开盘冲高1747回落下探1732，午间再反弹确定阻力1743承压回落破低，高点下移，低点刷新，形态向下开口，以1740-1743作为分界，守住此处下方震荡走跌，寻找下一方支撑区域1725-1723-1720。操作上在欧盘时段参考给出反弹空单计划，以起跌点1740-1743区域作为压制看低位修正。

Reference suggestions for gold operations:

1Current price of gold1728Multiple orders placed near the area, stop loss1725Next, target1733-1737Near the area, please take a look up1740-1743-1747Nearby the area, held in a broken position

2Gold rebounds without breaking through1740-1743区域的压制，则在其下方1733and1737分别布局空单，目标先看1725-1723-1720Area, break hold

Full day real-time online guidance WeChat:SCLC415】This article was written and released by Tan Xinsheng. Please indicate the source for reprinting. Because of the delay of network push and the timeliness of sending documents, the above content belongs to personal analysis. Real time market risk control needs to be flexible to deal with, and eliminate the risk of carrying orders. The content is only for reference. Investors should bear their own operational risk accordingly!

As a qualified investor, it is important to remember that most of the time we should focus on watching and waiting patiently for the best opportunity. We need to avoid frequent entry, and do not attempt to capture all the volatility in our operations. We also do not expect to judge every segment of the market correctly. It should be rare and precise!