Take advantage of the situation3.21How to deal with the tragic decline of crude oil due to the golden band strategy and the opportunity to unwind...

The market is changing, and we are also taking advantage of the trend. There will be fluctuations and repairs, as well as unilateral volume increases! Faced with market trends, there are many analyses and considerations, but no matter how many ideas there are, without taking action, it is just a pipe dream. A person who can think and a practical person are definitely two levels. Putting ideas into action and letting action change the status quo is the key to creating a virtuous cycle. Only daydreaming, and then regretting after the market is over, it's just gone forever! Good weekend!

　　goldPrice trend analysis:

This week, due to the decline in the yield of US treasury bond bonds, the US dollar fell back from the surge, recording an increase for the second consecutive week for the first time since this year. Accumulated gains this week18.12USD. U.S.A10The yield of one-year treasury bond hovered near the high level of more than one year hit on the previous trading day and then fell back. The US dollar fell from its intraday high and reached its highest level in over a week. The Federal Reserve hit gold on Friday and there may be more reserves left. By invalidating the era of the pandemic, the Federal Reserve forced banks to sell some bonds, and the market immediately sold American debt. As a result, the increase in the yield of treasury bond has reduced the attractiveness of precious metals. On the other hand, it is expected that this move will enable both bonds and gold to recover. The market is constantly changing, and the entry points are for reference only. If there is a break, you can also consult Li Xiaohan to learn about the latest market situation. The specific entry points for order making strategies are subject to actual market guidance! Li Xiaohan's WeChat:lxhq281。

Technically, the golden monthly chart remains a bearish trend and has not changed. However, the candlestick chart of the current monthly chart deviates from the moving average, which is why there is a rebound trend in the short cycle. At present, the weekly chartmacdLow dead cross reduction, agility indexstoRepair the hook upwards; And it has been two consecutive weeks with a bullish candlestick, so it is currently judged that the weekly level is starting to rebound. At the same time, because the candlestick chart collection station this week hit the moving averageMA5So the short-term trend of the gold market next week.Li Xiaohan suggests buying long on dips. Currently, the upper moving averageMA10And the moving averageMA60Adhesive pressing1786-1790One area, but with the opening of next week's moving averageMA10Continue to move down1775Nearby, while moving averageMA5It will also form short-term support1736According to Zhou Xiannao, Li Xiaohan“k”Look, currently1724Becoming a short-term strong support, similarly1762-63Becoming the current mandatory.

The daily bullish trend is more pronounced becausemacdBelonging to low level golden cross high-volume operation, agile indicatorsstoAfter the downward correction of the hook, there is a possibility that it will continue to hover near oversold, so the indicator currently shows a bullish trend on the daily line. And the moving averageMA5andMA10It also shows an upward movement to form support, so the gold next week is bullish for Teacher Li. Short term gold suppressed at the moving averageMA30nearby1762First line, but with the opening of next week, the suppression level will shift downwards. Similarly, the moving average support will also move upwards. Therefore, next week we will focus on buying long on dips. According to technical indicators, currently gold is still at the moving average1753-1724Within. Stand firm1753The price will directly hit the high point, but regardless of the resistance of the indicators, I still believe that the limit position of this round of rebound is1765-1775Let's witness together!

Short term trend: Gold4Looking at the hourly chart, the gold price of the Bollinger Bands has once again leveled with three tracks, and the gold price has fallen back to the vicinity of the Bollinger Bands on the upper track. Short term moving averageEMA5AndEMA10The double line has gradually shifted from a bearish arrangement to a bullish one. In terms of indicators,MACDThe negative kinetic energy column of the indicator gradually decreases,RSIIndicator in47Wandering around the location. In the short term, there is a trend of further rebound in gold prices. The current gold price is above the upward trend line, and it is expected that the previous upward trend will continue in the future. However, it should be noted that there are many obstacles above the gold price, and in the near future, the first obstacle above is1747Near the area, followed by1753-1756Area and1760Gateway;If the gold price is hindered during the rebound process, the target for the decline will be the low point1720-1719Region, testing will be conducted after breaking through the overnight low point1700-1676Near the area. The market is constantly changing, and the entry points are for reference only. If there is a break, you can also consult Li Xiaohan to learn about the latest market situation. The specific entry points for order making strategies are subject to actual market guidance! Li Xiaohan's WeChat:lxhq281。

Operation strategy: Midline layout: Fallback1735Multiple entry targets1765-1775Stop loss1726；

Rebound1775Empty order entry, target1675-1630Stop loss1782；

Short term layout: radical1742Enter without breaking multiple orders, target1747-52Stop loss4dollar;

　　1755-60Empty order entry, target1747Stop loss4dollar;

　　crude oilPrice trend analysis:

Wednesday,IEAPublished monthly crude oil market report. The monthly report shows that a stronger economy and vaccines will increase oil demand in the second half of the year, and the organization expects2021Global crude oil demand is expected to rebound this year55010000 barrels/Day,2021The annual demand will increase to965010000 barrels/Day. Due to a decrease in supply,2021The oil demand gap in the first quarter of the year is48010000 barrels/Day, the fourth quarter is14010000 barrels/Day. Despite the improvement in demand, the situation of oversupply of oil still exists. Due to the still sufficient supply, the organization does not believe that there will be an oil super cycle.IEAThe monthly report states that the crude oil market is still oversupplied, and the super cycle will not come!

Crude oil/dollar

Oil prices opened yesterday at59.491dollar/The barrel showed a trend of first falling and then rising after opening, and the oil price fluctuated after a sharp drop, hitting three times59.0Nearby, there is a stabilizing rebound, and the highest point is given61.7dollar/Barrel level, final closing at61.37dollar/Bucket. The daily chart includes a bullish candlestick, with a bullish candlestick appearing after the previous consecutive bearish declines, further indicating the pattern of bearish resistance after short selling. This week, oil prices experienced a consecutive bearish decline, while the weekly chart includes a large bearish hammer line with a longer downward shadow, further changing the pattern of weekly level consecutive bullish rises. The weekly chart has two consecutive bearish candlesticks, and weekly level support is the first to focus on58.0-57.0Horizontal support.

From a four hour perspective, oil prices have shown a clear pattern of one wave of decline, two waves of rebound, and three waves of acceleration. Currently, oil prices are58.2After the level stabilizes, there is a high probability of a four wave adjustment followed by a five wave decline. A very perfect five wave trend is worth looking forward to, while being cautious about the probability of a failed five wave. Pay attention to the resistance level above first61.4-62.0dollar/Bucket level, and then the boundary between strength and weakness63.0dollar/Bucket level, expected four wave adjustment end time at3month22During the US market period, overall, Li Xiaohan believes that next week's operation will mainly focus on rebounding and short selling, with many pullbacks and lows as supplements. The upper level will pay attention to this62.0-62.5dollar/Bucket, follow below58.0-57.0dollar/Bucket support. The market is constantly changing, and the entry points are for reference only. If there is a break, you can also consult Li Xiaohan to learn about the latest market situation. The specific entry points for order making strategies are subject to actual market guidance! Li Xiaohan's WeChat:lxhq281。

Trading strategy for next week:

　　1Rebound on62.0-62.5When encountering obstacles, look at the target60.0-58.0-57.5Loss5dollar.

　　2.retracement 58.0-57.5More stable, with a focus on goals60.0-63.0Loss0.5dollar.

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This article is original by analyst Li Xiaohan (guidance on WeChat:lxhq281）National registered gold analyst with rich practical trading experience and unique trading philosophy. Yihang pays attention to the actual situation; Calm down, focus, market sense, warehouse control, trend, and achieve stability, accuracy, and ruthlessness.