Chen Yibo: Analysis and Strategy of Gold Evening Trend

　goldMarket trend analysis



Message analysis: Friday(3month19day)Spot gold fluctuated in a narrow range, and the loose policies of the Federal Reserve provided support for gold prices. However, the high US bond yields put pressure on gold prices. However, Asian stock markets followed the overnight decline of US stocks, coupled with rising concerns about the international situation, Europe has encountered a third wave of COVID-19, which still provides support for gold prices and lacks clear direction in the short term. There are also significant variables in the short-term trend of gold prices. Considering the strength of US bond yields, goldETFPosition held by1month5Over the past three trading days, there has been an increase, and the current position level is11At a month low, the median gold price still slightly leans towards bearish positions. More decommissioning, investment and operation strategies are available on the official account "Chen Yibo" for real-time guidance.



Technically, the gold daily closing line included a small negative line with a longer shadow line, with a deeper decline. However, in the end, the closing line recovered some of the decline. In terms of daily closing, the gold price has been tested twice since1959The downward trend line pressure since the decline, as well as Fibonacci23.6%After resonance resistance, there was a significant sell-off, which included preliminary stagflationkThe daily rebound is still ongoing, but due to the8A rebound in several trading days, approaching a rebound80After the US dollar, it is expected that the daily line will begin a two-day adjustment, and the rebound pattern of the daily line will continue after the adjustment is completed. The initial support that the daily line needs to pay attention to is1724Nearby, falling below this position indicates that the market will need to be retested1700The integer level, after a sharp rise and fall in the previous two days, is relatively difficult to achieve a drop of $30 today. It will be treated as a correction for the market situation within the day.



In the one hour chart, after continuously breaking through key support, the gold price directly arrived1676Upward trend line since the rise1720Nearby support position, support rebound at this position, tested multiple times this morning Yesterday1755Since the decline50%Callback bit1737After not breaking, it is expected to fall back. We will test the support of this trend line again in the future, and pay attention to the short-term aspect1723-20Short term opportunities and profit grasping6-8If the US dollar can stabilize again in this position and break through1737On the first line, it is expected that there is a high probability of a continued rebound. After a sharp rise and fall, the probability of correction today is relatively high, and attention is paid between communities1720-1740The daily rebound did not end, but stagnatedkAfter the line, it is expected that the daily line will adjust the market for two trading days. Overall, in terms of short-term gold operations next week, Chen Yibo suggests that the main focus should be on pullback and long selling, supplemented by rebound and short selling, with a focus on the above1755-1760Frontline resistance, short-term focus below1710-1715Frontline support.



Newly entered gold, silvercrude oilOur friends may not be able to access the top news or news in the international market due to work, life, and other issues, which is a great problem for us to do gold, silver, and crude oil. Therefore, Chen Yibo welcomes investment friends to come to me to communicate and progress together, so that everyone can stay informed of the international market trends at any time, anywhere, and make the most stable orders.



GoldTDTrend analysis



GoldTDYesterday, gold surged and fell back to370The turning point of the bullish market is under pressure and has retreated, with low opening and low moving tests in the late trading session363Regional Daily LineMa10The moving average gained support and rebounded, while the daily line closed in a bearish manner,KLine running onMa5/10Above the moving average,MaThe golden fork is pointing upwards,macdThe golden fork runs, and the price of gold is360The upward trend remains more volatile, but we still need to pay attention to the international gold trend. It is not expected that there will be a significant fluctuation today360-370High selling and low slag within the interval. Four hours, gold price breaks through the middle trackKThe line rebounded from the downward shadow and resumed its position on the middle track, running in the upward channel. Bling slightly closed,MaLeveling of the moving average,macdThe gold fork has shrunk, and short-term gold prices have encountered obstacles in rising, but the overall volatility is relatively high, maintaining high selling and low slag operations before breaking the level. Suggest a rebound368/370Short selling, stop loss372.5, look at the goal363Below362/360Long, stop loss357, look at the goal366/368



SilverTDTrend analysis



SilverTDSilver also rose and fell yesterday5560Under pressure, in the late trading session, due to the international decline in silver, silver opened automatically at a low price5400Nearby support rebounded, with the daily line under pressure on the mid rail, and prices returning to5500Below,MaKeep the golden fork open,macdThe golden cross runs, and the short-term trend is still in a volatile rebound trend. However, there is insufficient momentum, so pay attention to itMa10average5400Gate support, follow in sequence5350/5300Support is a volatile market in the short term, with a range defined as5300-5500and5200-5600Inside. Four hours later, silver gained support and stopped its decline on the Bollinger track,KThe line maintains the shape of the head, shoulders, and floor,MaMulti head arrangement,macdThe gold fork runs but the red column shrinks, indicating that the short-term silver rebound is weak and there is a risk of a pullback, with a focus on Bollinger's downtrend5300Support gains and losses. Suggest a rebound5480/5500Short selling, stop loss5530, look at the goal5380/5350Below5300Regional long, stop loss5250, look at the goal5430/5480.At present, friends who have nested orders in their positions are unable to provide corresponding unwinding strategies due to the author Chen Yibo's lack of knowledge about the location and specific situation of your nested orders. Friends who need to unwind can obtain them through a single line.



Analysis of crude oil market trend



Analysis of crude oil news: Friday（3month19The rebound in oil prices in Japan is due to increased concerns about the increase in confirmed cases of European viruses and the strengthening of the US dollar. French official local time18On the th, it was announced that in order to curb the worsening of the pneumonia epidemic, Paris and other places will implement a "lockdown" for at least four weeks. A large area of Italy has been upgraded to a red area starting from Monday this week. The blockade by France and Italy dealt a fatal blow to the entire demand recovery theme that had pushed up prices. Due to Federal Reserve Chairman Powell's blind eye to the rise in US bond yields, bond market bears are gathering crazily. US Bond Yield Zhou Sichuang14A new high was reached last month, which boosted the US dollar and pressured oil prices to fall.



On the technical side of crude oil, there was a substantial negative trend on the daily line, with prices retreating below the average of each cycle. The average system was completely bearish, and Brin maintained overall contraction. The downward trend of short-term indicators could slow down, but the overall bearish pattern has been confirmed, and the daily line tends to be bearish. from4Looking at the hourly cycle, the US oil price rebounded after hitting a low point, and the price closed at60Above the checkpoint, the short-term indicators have improved, but of course, after a strong downward explorationKThe line still maintains the average line for each cycle and operates below the Bollinger track, therefore4From an hourly perspective, there is a demand for price adjustments, so we are not in a hurry to catch up with short positions, as the decline has already been significant enough. Rebound and return60The level is above it, and there is a potential for further expansion in small cycle technology. Of course, this is only seen as an adjustment, and the probability of a reversal is not high. So if you want to short, you have to wait for the arrival or near62The Belt and Road Initiative can intervene, with good risk control and increased profits. We will continue to look at further declines58Low position. Therefore, today's trading can only be short at high levels. Overall, Chen Yibo's personal suggestion for short-term crude oil operations next week is to prioritize high-altitude operations and prioritize low-altitude operations. Top short-term focus61.5-62.0Frontline resistance, short-term focus below57.0-57.5Frontline support