Chen Yibo:3.19Analysis of the latest trend of gold and operational strategies

　=====goods in stockgoldMarket trend analysis=====

Thursday(3month18The daily spot gold fluctuated in a narrow range, holding onto most of Wednesday's gains. The Federal Reserve kept interest rates unchanged and reiterated its intention to maintain benchmark interest rates at near zero lows until at least2023After the year, it put pressure on the US dollar and provided upward momentum for gold prices; Moreover, the number of cases in Brazil and India has skyrocketed, and the market is also concerned about the tightening of the international trade situation. There is still a chance for short-term gold prices to rise further. Powell still chose to ignore the rise in US bond yields, which could set new highs for future US bond yields and pose a potential threat to gold prices. Chen Yibo believes that the US dollar has slightly strengthened recently, but is still close to3At the low point of the year, given the continued easing policy of the Federal Reserve, the US dollar may further weaken. Coupled with the uncertainty related to tax changes in the United States, and the fact that the United States is currently in debtGDPThe country with the largest proportion seems to have no reason for gold to decline. Powell's continued tolerance for the rise of treasury bond bond yield may make the future market yield hit a new high again, because the market's expectation of inflation is still high, and the rise of US bond yield will be a potential threat to gold price. The weakness of real estate data has dragged down the US dollar and provided some support for gold. Focus on the Bank of England's interest rate resolution and initial request data for the day, which may be bearish for gold.

From a technical perspective, gold is at a daily level and rebounds after a unilateral decline;MACDGolden fork,KDJGolden fork,5Daily moving average10The daily moving average forms a golden cross, and gold prices break through1740Critical position, also breaking through21Daily moving average and23.6%Retreat position1743.51Nearby resistance, currently testing2month19Daily low point1760Nearby resistance, if further breaking up, look towards38.2%Retreat position1784.70Nearby. Further resistance in1800Gateway and55Daily moving average1809.98Nearby. Chen Yibo believes that pay attention below5Daily moving average1737.09Nearby support, if it falls below this position, it weakens the short-term bullish signal.4Hour level, preliminary upward break after low level oscillation; The gold price has broken through1740Key locations,MACDGolden fork,KDJGold fork, slight opening on the Bollinger Line, and gold prices are expected to move upwards along the Bollinger Line in the future. Preliminary resistance is1759.85Nearby, then1767.10Nearby resistance, strong resistance1779.54Nearby. Below1740It has been transformed into a strong support position, and the support of the middle rail of the Bollinger Line is located at1729.94Nearby, if it unexpectedly falls below that position, it will disrupt the bullish signal for the future market. Overall, in terms of short-term operation strategy today, Chen Yibo suggests that the main focus should be on a pullback to the low end, supplemented by a rebound to the high end, with a focus on short-term operations above1745-1750Frontline resistance, short-term focus below1710-1720Frontline support.



　　=====internationalcrude oilMarket trend analysis=====

Thursday（3month18US crude oil slightly weakened, although the US stock continued to rise overnight, providing support for oil pricesIEADenying that the oil market has entered a supercycle,EIACrude oil inventories have increased as scheduled, while gasoline and refined oil inventories have unexpectedly increased, putting pressure on oil prices and approachingfuturesThe contract is adjusted for a month, and some long positions may temporarily choose to wait and see after closing multiple orders, which also puts oil prices at risk of a certain pullback.IEAIn its monthly report, it was stated that there is unlikely to be a dramatic sustained jump in oil prices, and demand is expected to be2023It will not return to pre pandemic levels before, which further increases the pressure on oil prices. However, the significant decline in the US dollar has provided some upward momentum for oil prices. Analysts say that if there is a mild decline in the entire transaction, US crude oil prices will fall back in the coming days60The US dollar should not be too surprising, as speculative bulls take profits and recent gains have already been digested.IEAThe statement may dampen the buying enthusiasm of bulls and continue to put pressure on oil prices. Chen Yibo believes that due to the suspension of vaccination, the expectation of economic recovery in European countries has been delayed, and oil prices have been affected by continuous declines. After the announcement of the Federal Reserve resolution, the US dollar index rapidly declined and provided some support for crude oil. In addition, the Federal Reserve has affirmed the optimistic outlook for economic recovery, which is also beneficial for the oil market. Follow the European Medicines Agency for the day(EMA)The published investigation results on the AstraZeneca vaccine. If the results show that there are no issues with the vaccine, it may contribute to a rebound in oil prices.

According to the technical data of crude oil, the daily level rose unilaterally and then fluctuated at high levels;MACDHigh dead fork after top deviation,KDJDead fork,5The daily moving average turns downward, and short-term oil prices tend to fluctuate downward, with initial support at21Daily moving average63.14Nearby, also3month10Chen Yibo believes that if the daily low point support is lost, it will increase the short-term bearish signal; Further support on3month3Daily high point62.00Near the checkpoint,3month4Daily low point support at60.54Nearby,33.64-67.98Upward trend23.6%Retraction position support59.86Nearby. Strong support in55Daily moving average57.61Nearby. upper5The daily moving average resistance is currently at64.89Nearby, Tuesday's high point resistance65.43Nearby, if it rebounds above that position, it weakens the short-term bearish signal; This week's high point resistance66.40Nearby. Overall, in terms of short-term operation strategy today, Chen Yibo suggests that the main focus should be on a pullback to lower positions, supplemented by a rebound to short positions, with a focus on short-term operations above65-65.5Resistance, short-term focus below60.5-61Frontline support.