Chen Yibo:3.18Analysis of the Trend of Evening Gold Latest gold operation suggestions

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Thursday(3month18day)，现货黄金升至3month1New high in recent days1755.49dollar/盎司，此前美联储承诺维持指标利率在近零低位至少到2023年，美元指数创两周新低至91.30。但美联储也表示，美国经济正走向近40年来最强劲的增长，导致美债收益率创近14个月新高，限制了金价反弹。美联储周三(3month17day)维持政策不变，决策者承诺尽管可能出现通胀飙升，但他们会维持宽松政策。但同时预计，随着新冠疫情危机缓解，美国今年的经济增长和通胀将迅速跃升。美联储大幅提升了对未来几年美国经济潜力的评估，而不仅仅是对逐年的预估重新调整，尽管政策制定者确实开始消化提前加息，但这种转变并不像许多交易商担心的那样鹰派。美联储强调，经济的发展道路将在很大程度上取决于疫情的发展进程，包括疫苗接种进展。这场仍在肆虐的公共卫生危机将继续压制经济活动、就业和通胀，并对经济前景构成相当大的风险。不过美联储就其新的平均通胀率目标机制的基本信息似乎沟通的不错。美联储官员不光期待未来一年通胀率会暂时升到3%，他们还对通胀率保持在2%以上抱持正面看法，认为围绕该水平上方的时间和之前维持在该水准下方时间相等的话，平均通胀率目标就可以实现。

　　国黄金走势分析

　　黄金日线走势图显示，macd低位金叉向上发散，势头指标金叉运行在超买区域，大趋势连续分析可以看出，本轮价格自1862-1764连线构筑的下行通道反支撑1677触底回升，确认1677为阶段低点；首轮上涨至前期平行高点1740回落修复，并在下探1700后强势反弹，文中强调价格进入第二轮上涨周期，成型关口就在1740突破情况，现在1740上破，上方强弱分界点就在1762-1765Horizontal;4小时级别上探布林道上轨处承压回落至中轨附近震荡，短线区间收敛后放量，黄金技术面短期维持一个区间震荡偏上行的走势，布林带开口继续加大，同时开口向上倾斜，50均线显然变得平缓，下行趋势线被遏制住，大阳线全部位于均线上方，下方支撑位置关注1740阻力位突破的转换价位，然后就是1735多空分水岭位置支撑。综上所述陈亦博认为：今日黄金操作思路上建议回调做多为主，反弹做空为辅，上方重点关注1750-1755Frontline resistance, short-term focus below1720-1715Frontline support.

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