Chen Yibo:3.12黄金最新周线收官分析讲解。

前言：每次写分析，我都希望看到的朋友能有所收获，在这个市场上，平静的表现下其实暗波汹涌，很多投资朋友轻易的进入，往往遍体鳞伤，每天都有很多朋友找到我，寻求帮助，然而更多的只是看完分析后迅速的找到下一篇继续看。我希望我能帮助更多的人，就犹如我自己对这份工作的定位是服务一样，人与人之间是相互的，信任是合作的开始，如果你在投资道路上有所困惑和迷茫可以找我聊聊，说不定这将使你的投资之路好走很多。

Friday(3month12day): Internationalgold开盘有所反弹，隔夜美债收益率的探底回升收涨对其产生压力，但是在凌晨2spot30年期美债发行后，美元指数连续第三日下行，跌至盘中低点91.36则在尾盘和今日亚盘对金价产生支撑。



另外，虽美债收益率探底回升增加了其保持反弹趋势的看涨，对金价反弹力度有所限制，再加上黄金主图上的上长影线的看空信号，但走盘上，金价仍存在看涨预期的推动，因而整体看，上方继续关注1740美元附近或上方阻力低位承压震荡区间看待。



基本面上，拜登签署刺激法案，虽在短期上支撑金价，但由此带来的持续乐观前景，则是不利于黄金的。随着风险偏好非常乐观，疫情影响的渐渐淡化，已促进美国经济偏向长期的增长环境中，使得美国股市整体表现良好且不断再创新高，这将是仍是黄金的压力。



再者美国国债收益率虽持续运行在1.6一线的阻力下方，但仍处于高位的上行趋势中，则仍会对金价的反弹产生限制，只能说在突破此阻力前，金价刷新低点的风险降低，但不排除再度下行的风险，因为100Daily moving average and200日均线的死叉新低可抄底，这个新低个人认为不太会是现在的1676美元，应该咋子1655美元附近或更低，所以目前的止跌反弹看涨，不能说是不对，只能说是太激进。



另外值得注意的是，下周长债供应还将增加，下周二将续发240USD100mn20年期国债，和7年期债券，根据历史情况看，其这两者一直更容易受到供应扩容的影响，故此关注下周二的利好金价反弹需求，整体走势维持在1760USD or5周均线下方承压防跌不变。



Gold trend analysis:





昨日黄金小幅下跌，盘中一度触及1739USD, for3month1日以来最高水平，美债收益率回升令黄金承压，此外美股大涨也削弱了避险黄金的吸引力，不过美元指数大幅回落使得黄金跌幅受限。此外欧央行于昨日晚盘时段的利率决议中表明欧央行内部对于是否增加债券购买规模意见不统一，这削弱了黄金的避险职能。



技术面来看，昨日黄金在早间下探1723一线后震荡走高，期间并未有任何调整出现，进入欧盘初逼近1740关口后走软至1730一线，美盘开盘黄金反抽1737一线后再度震荡回落，最低触及1719一线，凌晨小幅企稳1720关口弱势收盘，昨夜黄金横盘震荡并抹去日内全部涨幅，日线报收冲高回落吊颈阴线，反弹承压前期开跌口1740关口阻力运行，结束两连阳走势，市场看多力量开始犹豫，但只要黄金持续站在10日均线上方，就有望促进黄金5日均线向上与10The daily moving average forms a golden cross,4小时来看目前MACD收口即将死叉，50均线向下倾斜遭遇明显的放缓迹象，所以短线上先调整，调整完毕继续看涨，日内操作上建议回落低多为主！



Suggestions for Gold Operations:1708-1705Loss1700, Objective1730-1740



Gold and SilverTDtechnical analysis



goldTD：目前现货遇到压力，那么TD不要追多可以分批365reach368Area Empty369损博弈二次探底走势行情。现在支撑上移358区域，也就是说今日给你358继续买入356损就好目标365reach370区域。具体做单策略进场点位以陈亦博QQ：1467450473Based on actual offer guidance!



silverTD: Silvertd日线，屯兵在60均线之下虎视眈眈，上方布林中轨由向下转为走平观望，空头量能进一步退让，MACD快线拐头向上即将上穿慢线，行情更加利于震荡反弹；



4小时看，周三回踩最低至布林中轨反弹，多方准备进攻空头60线，目前蓄势待发，多头集结完毕，MACD快线和慢线同时保持45，准备进攻，行情更加利于多头；1Hours and30分钟，目前已攻破所有城墙均线，并成功转化为后盾，现前面一片广阔天空，但攻破城墙后多头有些力不从心，略有懈怠之势，目前真正组织量能，等待下一次进攻，MACDstay0轴上方耀武扬威，局面更加利于多头进攻。



综合判断：多头后边力量强大，有进攻的欲望和兵力，但短期需要时间修整，等待多头后续部队的补给和集结，虽然后续实力强大，但前锋多头数量不够，谨防可能被再次击退。下方关注5340element/Kilogram support, and5290Yuan; Follow Above5450Yuan, and5520元阻力。具体做单策略进场点位以陈亦博QQ：1467450473Based on actual offer guidance!



Paper Silver:



During the day, the US dollar index continued its upward trend, and silver as a whole fluctuated downward along the short-term moving average. Under the strong pressure of the US dollar index, silver was unable to maintain a strong upward trend, and the market did not break the pressure above5.7Starting to enter the technical callback. fromKFrom the perspective of line technology, there is a decline and engulfment pattern at the hourly level, and a short-term correction is inevitable. Silver4The hourly cycle is currently in a fluctuating downward trend, starting fromKFrom a structural perspective, the current downward trend of the oscillation is still ongoing,KThe line runs on the lower track of the Bollinger belt, and theoretically it also runs in a falling or oscillating structure, with the high point in the figure5.6-5.76Element is pressure,5.1-5.0Yuan is the support.4According to the hourly chart, due to the early stage5.0The yuan support has not been damaged, so Chen Yibo believes that the probability of a rebound in paper and silver after a rebound is high. The short-term downward trend of silver is relatively obvious, but with the gradual release of kinetic energy, the probability of a low rebound is also high, and the operational approach is still dominated by a low and high layout. The market is constantly changing, and the entry points are for reference only. If there is a break, you can also consult Chen Yibo to learn about the latest market situation. For specific order making strategies, please refer to Chen Yibo for entry pointsQQ：1467450473Based on actual offer guidance!



黄金白银亏损原因有这三种：



1、到处看群做，看小周期做，来回追，来回损。自己主见很强，从来不单独信哪一个人的，看各个老师的分析，自己综合着做单。看对了的，自己因为没有信心，都没进场，看错了的，都做进去，亏了而且心里极度不爽，感觉天昏地暗的。



2、总是重仓做单而且总是看反，看对的时候，赚一点小钱就出了，看错的时候，就套单或者锁单，最后总是砍在最低点或者天地连环锁全砍。震荡行情做的还行，但是有一天重仓来回追来回砍了之后，对行情有了恐惧感，觉得每天都是单边，不敢做单，但实际上每天都是震荡;Suddenly one day, when I felt like it was oscillating, the result was unilateral.



3、等到单边行情，看对了，但是总是不到进场点，错过了，好不容易做上一单，结果先震荡一波，导致赚一点点就跑了，懊恼不已之时，博个回调就被套了。一被套就盘整，总觉得至少能回调或者小亏出场，虽然知道趋势已经很明显反了但是还是被温水煮青蛙越套越深，最后砍在最高点或者最低点。

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