Tan Xinsheng:3.8黄金走势格局暂未改变 但不排除短期会有反弹

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goldInformation analysis:

Monday(3month8day)亚市盘中，美元指数交投在92关口上方；美国国会参议院在周末通过了拜登1.9万亿美元经济刺激方案，财政刺激方面的积极进展推动投资者对于黄金的需求。亚市金价早间跳空高开高走金价振荡上扬，不过停滞在1714美元附近难再前行，之后黄金开始震荡下行，截止写稿黄金已经回补了早间的跳空缺口，并跌破了1700关口，有向下去测试1696区域的支撑。

上周六，刺激计划在参议院以50-49的票数获得通过。众议院将在周一晚上就审议规则进行投票，在周二表决参议院版本的刺激计划。由于众议院目前由民主党控制，所以最终通过刺激计划几乎是“板上钉钉”。民主党希望3month14日之前能使其签署成为法律，因为已经延长的失业援助措施将在那天到期。据CNBC报道，美国参议院多数党领袖舒默表示，美国国会可能考虑更多的抗疫纾困措施，这将取决于新冠疫情持续的时间。

本周市场需关注美国财政刺激方案的最终落定情况，同时留意是否有新的替代或扩大方案出现，美债收益率和美元强势牵动市场，仍需关注买预期卖实际的走势。

Technical analysis of gold:

黄金日线图看，金价跌破250日平均移动均线以来，金价在20天跌幅达128美元，金价跌破1700关口后最低至1687美元，金价一度触及8个月以来低点，上个月金价创下2016year11月以来最糟糕的一个月。指标看，MACD指标负动能柱增加速度有所放缓，RSIIndicator in oversold area30位置显示反弹迹象。上周五金价显示红十字星KLine,5日短期均线下跌态势有所放缓，估计金价深跌后存在反弹需求。4小时图看，金价布林下轨有所拐头向上，金价反弹至布林中轨附近。短期均线EMA5AndEMA10双线拐头向上。指标上，MACDThe negative kinetic energy column of the indicator gradually decreases,RSI指标反弹迫近中线50位置下方。短线操作上，目前黄金以经跌破了1700关口，那么在接下来的行情中，下方关注1696-1693区域支撑以及1687-1690支撑位；上方关注1709位置的压制，其次是1714-1718Suppression.

黄金操作参考思路：

1Gold falling back1696-1693区域附近及上方止跌可布局多单，止损1690Next, target1707-1709Area, look up1714-1718Area, break hold

2The rebound of gold1707-1709区域附近附近受阻则布局空单，止损1714On, target1700-1696Area, take a look down1693-1690-1687Area, break hold

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作为一个合格的投资者需要谨记，大部分时间应该以观望为主，耐心等待最佳的时机，需要避免频繁进场，操作上不要试图抓获所有波幅，也不要奢望对每一段行情都判断正确，应该少而精!