Li Xiaohan3.8黄金反弹力度大吗？黄金价格走势分析及独家策略

　　goldDissection of message surface:

　　刚刚过去的一周，现货黄金延续跌势，最低曾触及1687.44dollar/盎司，为近九个月新低，收报1700.64dollar/盎司，周线跌幅约1.93%，也是连续第三周下跌。一方面，美联储主席不会立即出手压制收益率，投资者大失所望，美债收益率重拾涨势，再创逾一年新高，带动美元上涨，对金价形成打压；另一方面，美国非农等经济数据表现靓丽，提振经济复苏前景，削弱黄金的避险买需。市场对黄金的看空预期有所增加，但仍需留意美国1.9万亿刺激计划的进展。鲍威尔暗示美联储不会立即出手压制收益率，投资者大失所望，一些投资者寄望美联储主席鲍威尔出手应对美债市场近期大幅震荡，但鲍威尔的讲话令他们感到失望。

　　鲍威尔周四在华尔街日报组织的一个论坛上重申，在更多美国民众重返就业岗位之前，将保持宽松的货币环境。这可能是3month17日美联储下次政策会议之前鲍威尔的最后一次发言，他淡化了人们的担忧，即在投资者推高美联储想要保持在低位的借贷成本之际，最近美债收益率上升可能会给美联储带来麻烦。鲍威尔的讲话暗示，美联储不会立即采取行动限制收益率涨势。这推动美债收益率攀升，10年期国债收益率在周五一度涨至1.623%，为逾一年新高，收报1.566%，周线涨幅约11.54%，为年内第二大周线涨幅，对金价打压明显。

Anatomy of the Golden Technical Surface:

At the monthly level, gold prices have initially fallen below the support of the medium track, according to itsKDJDead fork retention,MACDThe strengthening of bearish signals, coupled with the beginning of this month, is also optimistic about further downward risk expectations. If the rebound fails to stabilize the track line, further attention can be paid below30Weekly moving average1570-1580Near the US dollar.

Weekly level, support on the downside of breaking through bullish clouds1760After the US dollar, if the negative line is still charged again and the strength remains unchanged, it is optimistic that further touching will occur100Weekly moving average1650Around the US dollar. At that time, the band rebound can be captured.

Daily level, unilateral decline; Short positions on the moving average,MACDDeadfork signal continuation,KDJThe dead cross signal continues, and there is still a risk of further downward exploration in gold prices, with short-term attention still being paid1689.58Nearby support, this position is1451-2075Upward trend61.8%The ability to maintain this support during the closing of a pullback will affect the judgment of the medium to long term trend. If left behind1689.58Nearby support, the short term may further fall towards2020year5month1Rihe6month5Daily low point1670.98Nearby support;5month6Daily low point1682There is also some support nearby. If we can hold onto it1689.58Nearby support suggests that the recent decline may only be a deep correction of the long-term upward trend, and there is still a chance for gold prices to fluctuate and rise in the future. becauseKLine andKDJThe downward momentum seems to have weakened, please pay attention to it from above5Daily moving average1713.42Nearby resistance, if it can rebound above that position, will weaken the bearish signal in the future. On the point, follow from above1713Near the US dollar, and1736-38Resistance near the US dollar; Follow Below1687Near the US dollar, and1668-71Support around the US dollar.

　　4Hour level, following last year8After setting a new historical high on a monthly basis, gold has continued to fluctuate and decline, and it seems to be approaching important support. This important support interval is the downward trajectory of the downward channel starting from historical highs and61.8%The interval constructed by the Fibo retreat level1690-1686Nearby. meanwhile,RSIThe indicator shows signs of bottom deviation and rebounds from the oversold range, releasing a signal that action can weaken. If the closing price of this week successfully holds this important support range, it is expected to rebound and rebound in the future, and the resistance above is important1760Frontline50%Near the level of Fibo retreat; On the contrary, if it falls below this important support, it may further fall towards1650First line or even1600Integer off.

In summary, gold prices will definitely rise first at the beginning of the week and not break the highest point of the previous wave1742，黄金将会暴跌的更加凶猛，所以明日周一我们还是先看震荡偏上行走势。可逢低布局中长线多单，周中将考虑中长线的空单布局。明日开盘下方关注1688-1683Frontline support. Follow Above1713-1720A line of resistance.

Wen, Li Xiaohanlxhq281