Wang Decheng:3.1螺纹铁矿石豆粕玻璃期货消息面解读和行情分析

    A new year and a new beginning, shedding the burdens of yesterday and embarking on a new journey. I won't say much about the words of blessings here. Let me talk about practical issues from a practical perspective. The first point is that after paying salaries during the Chinese New Year, some investment friends should not be swayed. Investment carries risks and still needs to be treated rationally. The author strongly recommends that you do not invest too much money in trading. The second point is the old saying that you must bring stop loss trading, otherwise you will always be trapped. Decoupling is really a detestable thing. If you encounter unilateral market trends, it is easy to sell your orders. The third point is that as long as your orders are profitable15If it is more than one point, it is important to remember to bring a breakeven loss to avoid profitable orders turning into losses in the end. The fourth point is that some of your families grow apples, soybeans, and raise chickens to make glassfuturesBig shot, don't assume that you are familiar with the spot market and have a long-term layout of heavy positions. Heavy positions may not yield good results. If you don't believe it, take a look at Fu Xiaojun. No matter how big your funds are, you cannot compete with the control of professional main institutions. Heartfelt words, I hope all of you can listen.

   

    好了，言归正传。现在开始分析螺纹、铁矿石、豆粕、玻璃主力期货的后市行情走势。

   Thread Main Contract:

    基本面方面，上海螺纹4610Steel billets4230Steel plant operating rate66.44%Social inventory100910000 tons, steel factory inventory512万吨。钢材开工水平触顶回落，利润继续回升仍偏低，中上游库存补库基本体现，但去库存压力仍大，旺季需求未开启，资产氛围面临高波动，05合约贴水提前修复关注。2021供给侧改革结束，政策未来炒作能力有限，宏观经济系统性风险仍有望第二轮显现，房地产投资生产需求后期须关注周期性转淡，以及全球疫情动向及对经济的影响变化及季节性生产动态。资产氛围带动通胀预期进一步体现，关注11年历史高位。螺纹2105合约周五触底回升十字星报收4677(Last day's price)4686），先行回调整理，随后保持全天震荡走势，但多头形态完好，保持做多思路。短线操作上，笔者王德诚建议回踩4630附近做多为主，反弹4700附近高空为辅。

　

   Iron ore main contract:

　  基本面方面，铁矿石普氏指数172.75，现货青岛港PB粉1180，港口库存12709万吨，钢厂铁矿石库存可用天数30天。钢厂开工需求高位回落，受制于季节性和利润不佳，炉料库存充裕，钢厂矿石库存健康。外矿去年供给受限，今年复产修复，供给2021仍有望边际转暖，港口库存当前低位已逐渐开启回升。矿石高低品级价差回落，钢厂红利出净高品代替焦炭优势渐弱，废钢对矿石亦有替代作用。外盘矿石回升，现货成交回暖有限，基差修复转负。全球终端需求进一步向上打压，美国粗钢产量锐减，后期铁矿石供需环境仍不乐观。人民币中长期仍存在贬值预期但短线升值，海运进口成本延续低位。铁矿2105合约周五触底回升中阳线报收1151(Last day's price)1131），下方支撑强劲，触及后迅速反弹冲高，保持多头思路。短线操作上，笔者建议回踩1130reach1140区间去轻仓做多为主，触及1160一线附近可以轻仓做空。

  Soybean meal main contract:

　 基本面方面，沿海豆粕价格3730-3830element/吨，较上日波动10-50element/吨。巴西豆收割率仅15%，上市或延迟，美豆出口前景较强劲。国内方面，面临即将到来的春节后的开工和南美大豆的上市，油厂出售远月基差合同并增仓套保，后市或迎来下游节后补库周期，但目前成交量较为平淡。豆粕2105合约周五大幅下跌大阴线报收3427(Last day's price)3574），惊天大阴线出现，走势破朔迷离，多日涨幅付之东流，建议暂持观望态度。

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  Glass main contract:

    基本面方面，上日玻璃小区间波动50Multiple point reporting2044小阴线行情，市场概述国内浮法玻璃现货市场趋稳运行，终端企业多数放假，场内需求几无，全国浮法玻璃均价在2046element/吨，环比持平。终端基本放假，贸易环节相对匮乏，市场交投清淡。供应分析国内玻璃生产线在剔除僵尸产线后共计288条，其中在产251条，冷修停产37条，浮法产业企业开工率为87.15%The capacity utilization rate is87.77%。上下游分析上游：国内纯碱市场变化不大，整体以稳为主，市场成交少。据了解，当前纯碱企业装置生产正常，产量稳定，周内产量略有增加。从往年看，节前企业出货，清理库存，春节期间产大于销，企业库存会保持增加趋势。玻璃2105合约，玻璃高位剧烈波动逐渐走强走势行情，有望延续上攻行情为主，笔者王德诚建议回调2030Support multiple orders entering in batches above.

   Refuse the temptation of high profits and persist in rational investment. Investment and financial management are high-risk things, not as easy to make money, and maintaining rationality is the most important. Respect laws and regulations, avoid financial traps, and stay away from "high yield" scams. Investors must learn more relevant knowledge to distinguish between real and fake platforms, and learn the most basic knowledge of investment. Author Wang Decheng Futures Qualification Qualification NumberT329796Qualification certificate number of financial planner:CICFPAGC1161851Contact WeChat Sync on your phone:15851503763。