ZHAOFX：OPECPositive support for oil prices, US disruption, and increased risk of oil price decline

Monday(2month1day)Ya Shi Pan Chu, Meicrude oilSlightly up, reaching a new low in a week51.64dollar/Barrel, as of the deadline for publication, oil prices recorded a slight increase0.52%. According to market news,OPECThe implementation rate of the production reduction agreement is1Month rises to103%Major oil producing countries have emphasized their determination to maintain stability in the oil market and support oil prices. However, the new US President Biden has reduced1.9The trillions of dollars rescue plan has eased market optimism and increased the risk of short-term decline in oil prices.
ZHAOFXAccording to analysis data from Caijing, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries(OPEC)since2020year7From month to month2021year1In the month, the total crude oil production continued7Last month showed an upward trend. However, due to frequent attacks by the Nigerian armed group Boko Haram on the Nigerian army, the domestic situation is tense, limiting crude oil production.
Data shows that the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries13Member states1The total monthly production is per day2575Ten thousand barrels, compared to2020year12Monthly single day multiple outputs16Ten thousand barrels, and last year6Record monthly crude oil production30Annual minimum level.ZHAOFXCaijing believes that the reason for the monthly increase in crude oil production is due toOPECThe member states unanimously agree that since2021year1Starting from this month, the domestic oil cap of each member can be raised.
Due to the increase in Saudi and Iranian crude oil production quotas1The largest increase in crude oil production in the month was also observed in these two countries.OPECIt is believed that with the gradual easing of the COVID-19 epidemic, the demand for crude oil will gradually recover.OPEC+1Agree to increase production in the month5010000 barrels/Days, of whichOPECThe share is approximately3010000 barrels/Days. Data display,OPECSlightly higher than half of this number. Therefore, subject to this agreementOPECoil-producing country1The agreement execution rate for the month is103%Last year12Month is99%。OPECThe implementation rate of production reduction has increased, which is positive for oil prices.
On the other hand, US President Joe Biden has been in office for over a week and will1.9The legislation of the trillion dollar COVID-19 relief plan is the top priority, but the White House's expectation of a bipartisan agreement on this issue is fading. If Biden's rescue plan is scaled down, it will to some extent reduce funds to support economic recovery, which will pose a negative factor for oil prices.
Overall, despiteOPECThe increase in the implementation rate of production cuts has boosted oil prices, but there is still uncertainty about the passage and actual implementation of the US bailout bill, which is unfavorable for oil prices. Since last year10Since the beginning of this month, under the positive stimulus of vaccination, oil prices have increased by about50%. At the same time, there have been confirmed cases of COVID-19 mutation virus in the world, which also aggravates the market's concern about the recovery of the world economy, so the downside risk of short-term oil prices has increased.
writing/ZHAOFXCaijing Network