王德诚：空头发力，2.1日橡胶玻璃棕榈油鸡蛋期货行情分析

   One thing I want to teach you today is that you need to learn to set a principal loss. It is estimated that the vast majority of traders have encountered similar troubles, that is, many times orders have set a stop loss, but suddenly the market turns around and reverses, and orders that are clearly profitable turn into losses, so you don't get lost. In order to prevent such tragedies from happening, everyone must learn to set a principal loss, which means that after the order in hand has a small profit, you can set the stop loss point on your entry point shirt, or on the breakeven point with transaction costs added. This way, no matter how the market fluctuates in the later stage, your order will not lose money, and you don't have to constantly be nervous and stare at the market. If you are lucky, Perhaps we can gradually turn short-term orders into medium to long-term ones. After all, this is also a risk control method. Leaving aside the profit margin, at least it can prevent you from losing money.

    好了，接下来开始分析橡胶、玻璃、棕榈油、鸡蛋等主力合约商品futures的行情走势。

　

   橡胶主力合约：

　　2021年重卡市场仍有望惯性增长，虽然冬季消费有所下滑，但考虑全年社会消费复苏预计好于2020年，基建投资回暖，加之配套胎需求可能增长都有望继续支撑重卡胎需求。2021年汽车产销预计能够恢复至正增长，内需方面与去年比较，增长是大概率事件。因泰国南部四府橡胶树落叶的消息使得市场担忧后期产量受影响，价格大幅上扬而后回落。

    据了解，落叶病严重的区域主要在那拉提瓦府，该区域橡胶树种植面积占比有限，总体影响不大。当下橡胶仍是供需两弱的格局，供应端的支撑较强，而年后需求复苏的主线下，预计胶价维持偏强震荡，但因国内绝对库存高企，需要时间消化。近期泰国疫情蔓延速度依旧较快，不过天胶产量和出口量暂未受到明显影响。泰国南部主产区仍有强降雨预期，原料产出或受影响。听闻泰国南部4府出现严重的橡胶树落叶病侵袭，但据悉落叶病涉及区域、规模、等级等并未达到非常严重的程度，难以造成天然橡胶实际产出的大量减少。

    短线操作上橡胶期货2105合约走势区间调整，整体方向上扬不变，结合压力调整操作上注意高抛低吸，背靠14630reach13680之间短线高抛低吸，滚动操作，逐渐移动获利保护。

　 Glass main contract:

    今日玻璃反弹洗盘20多点盘踞多日整理行情报收1786小阴线，中下游接货趋向谨慎。华北京津唐市场重心下滑，个别企业价格连续下降，累计降幅大16element/重箱，业者操作谨慎，观望情况浓重；华东市场大稳小动，需求疲软，企业出货受限，产销仅在50-60%附近；西南地区川渝企业挺价运行为主，云贵部分企业外发价格有所回落，产销难有起色，隆众预计后市价格回调范围或有扩大预期。

　 短线操作上玻璃2105合约，玻璃高位剧烈波动有望回落走势行情，有望延续低迷下跌行情为主，笔者王德诚建议冲高1800and1850压力下方分批进场空单策略。

　棕榈油主力合约：

    当日全国棕榈油现货成交共计100吨。库存方面，截至1month26日，全国豆油商业库存为81.57万吨，较此前一周减少3.3万吨；棕榈油港口库存为61.42万吨，较此前一周增加3.5万吨；菜籽油库存为14.33万吨，基本持平与此前一周；进入冬季以来，北半球低温不利于病毒消杀，利于新冠病毒快速传播，全球各国新冠疫情感染人数继续快速增加，包括我国在内，各国疫情防控措施不断升级。随着人员流动受限，棕榈油两大消费生物柴油和食用需求同时受到抑制。春节小包装油脂备货结束。春节前的小包装集中备货行情结束，油脂即将进入消费淡季，此前油脂需求受春节等因素推动不断创出新高，市场预期开始转向，给油脂价格提供了额外压力。展望后市，油脂下跌动能依然存在，但如果疫情逐步得到控制，不宜过分看空油脂。目前，现货库存处于近几年的低位，反映出终端需求并非想象的那么差，油脂反弹行情随时可能到来。

　　短线操作上棕榈2105合约高位调整，上方看前高压力6790一线，短线波段介入，操作上依托6790一线阻力区布局空单。

　鸡蛋主力合约：

    鸡蛋小区间波动80Multiple point reporting4336小阴线行情，鸡蛋品流通受阻，南北调运受限，且在疫情蔓延的情况下各项运费成本均增加，仍继续支撑鸡蛋价格，同时气温下降后蛋鸡产蛋率下降，鸡蛋供应压力减轻，加上玉米及豆粕价格仍高位强势运行，养殖端成本压力较大，养殖户在饲料成本逐步递增的情况下提价意愿强烈。不过，上周末北京市商务局副局长吴向阳发言，北京将多措并举做好保供稳价工作，北京现货价格下跌，市场看涨情绪松动。同时，蛋价处于较高水平，终端抵触情绪开始升温，且受疫情影响，下游食品厂观望情绪较重，备货力度弱于往年，继续拿货谨慎，市场整体走货缓慢。

　　短线操作上鸡蛋2105合约，鸡蛋整体趋势破位下跌行情，鸡蛋连续区间整理波动逐渐下挫走低行情，笔者王德诚建议鸡蛋冲高4380and4400一线压力分批进场空单策略为主。

    Refuse the temptation of high profits and persist in rational investment. Investment and financial management are high-risk things, not as easy to make money, and maintaining rationality is the most important. Respect laws and regulations, avoid financial traps, and stay away from "high yield" scams. Investors must learn more relevant knowledge to distinguish between real and fake platforms, and learn the most basic knowledge of investment. Author Wang Decheng Futures Qualification Qualification NumberT329796Qualification certificate number of financial planner:CICFPAGC1161851Contact WeChat:wdckdj。