Wang Decheng:1.28Market Analysis of Screw Thread Steel, Soybean Meal, Iron Ore, Coke, Egg Futures

      Wang Decheng:1.28Screw thread steel, soybean meal, iron ore, coke, eggsfuturesFundamental Interpretation and Market Analysis

    One thing I want to teach you today is that you need to learn to set a principal loss. It is estimated that the vast majority of traders have encountered similar troubles, that is, many times orders have set a stop loss, but suddenly the market turns around and reverses, and orders that are clearly profitable turn into losses, so you don't get lost. In order to prevent such tragedies from happening, everyone must learn to set a principal loss, which means that after the order in hand has a small profit, you can set the stop loss point on your entry point shirt, or on the breakeven point with transaction costs added. This way, no matter how the market fluctuates in the later stage, your order will not lose money, and you don't have to constantly be nervous and stare at the market. If you are lucky, Perhaps we can gradually turn short-term orders into medium to long-term ones. After all, this is also a risk control method. Leaving aside the profit margin, at least it can prevent you from losing money.

    Alright, let's start analyzing the market trends of major contract commodities such as rebar, soybean meal, iron ore, coke, and eggs.

   Thread Main Contract:

　  thread2105The contract rebounded in volume on Wednesday and closed at a positive line4385(Last day's price)4303）The form belongs to stepping back4237The index shows signs of correction and is expected to experience strong short-term volatility.

    Shanghai Thread4290Steel billets3830Steel plant operating rate66.3%Social inventory480.4910000 tons, steel factory inventory288.73Ten thousand tons. The steel production level has peaked and fallen, while profits continue to rebound and remain low. Inventory in the middle and upper reaches continues to decline, but the pressure to destock remains high. Demand has weakened during the peak season, and the asset atmosphere is facing high volatility,01The contract discount repair still needs attention.2020The supply side reform has been basically completed, and the policy's ability to speculate in the future is limited. Macroeconomic systemic risks are still expected to emerge in the second round, and the demand for real estate investment and production will also weaken seasonally in the later stage. Pay attention to the global trend of the epidemic and its impact on the economy, as well as seasonal production dynamics. Asset atmosphere driving inflation expectations further reflects and hits again19Annual high. In terms of short-term trading, the thread trend is currently similar to that of iron ore, with strong resistance to decline in the past month and has been consistently in the4390reach270The interval oscillates, relying mainly on high altitude and low altitude, with good air as a supplement. The hourly and four-hour lines operate in parallel with the forest belt, and it is expected to continue to oscillate in the future.

   Soybean meal main contract:

    Soybean meal2105Contract Wednesday high opening and positive closing3518(Last day's price)3432）The pattern belongs to the end of the pullback, and it is recommended to resume the long selling strategy with the trend.

Coastal soybean meal prices3600reach4000element/Ton20-40element/Tons. With the hype of American beans and soybean meal, domestic and foreign capital has withdrawn. On the domestic side, facing the upcoming off-season after the Spring Festival and the listing of South American soybeans, oil factories are selling far month basis contracts and increasing their positions for hedging. The futures market experienced a significant decline, and downstream purchases were cautious, resulting in weaker soybean meal transactions. Soybean oil inventory is relatively stable, and buyers in the spot market are cautious in chasing higher prices. The wait-and-see mentality is still present, and the overall transaction volume has not yet increased. In terms of short-term trading: Soybean meal is still in a bearish trend in the short term, so it takes advantage of the trend in trading3500Provide frontline support to lay out short orders and be cautious in taking bottom positions and taking long positions.

   Iron ore main contract:

Yesterday's fluctuations between iron ore communities30Multiple point market adjustments and significant decline in iron ore prices40Report at around o'clock1025In terms of supply, the intensity of the large overcast line has weakened and will not cause significant damage to the port. The originally expected reduction has also been reduced to the lowest level, and the impact is roughly close to the daily maintenance volume150reach200Ten thousand tons. In terms of demand, the original market expected the overall pace of steel mills' replenishment to slow down, but the actual dredging volume was significantly higher than last week's level, and even reached the highest level in the first quarter of recent years, indicating that steel mills' replenishment will continue to maintain a high level of dredging before the year,1At the end of the month, the port will resume going to the warehouse. In terms of steel mills, the daily average year-on-year increase in molten iron production this week is still ongoing15Over 10000 tons, the expectation of a significant reduction in production before the holiday has not been verified, and the impact on daily iron ore consumption on a month on month basis is very small. The corresponding weekly increase in iron ore demand year-on-year is170About ten thousand tons. In terms of short-term trading, the overall trend of iron ore is currently bullish, with strong resilience in the past month and has been in a1015-1065The range fluctuates, relying on the high altitude and low altitude of this range in operation. Currently, the four hour Bollinger Belt is severely contracting, and it is expected that the market will soon break through the volatility and move out of direction

  Coke main contract:

　 Yesterday, the fluctuation between coke communities rebounded and washed the market60Multiple point reporting2660A small positive line around the area, yesterday's weak decline in coke120Report at around o'clock2619The trend of the big negative line has led to the recovery of transportation in Hebei. The market is concerned that the further passive reduction of production by Hebei steel mills has led to a loosening of coke supply and demand, and the logic of early decline in spot prices has been corrected, as well as the potential decline during the off-season period. The current market may have already corrected to its original level. The short-term logic before the new year is biased towards emptiness, which is a seasonal reduction in production by steel mills after the year, coupled with a loosening of supply and demand in coke production capacity. During the peak season, the production of finished products will increase, and the supply and demand of coke will also be tight. Under such a combination of long and short positions, prices will face certain resistance both up and down, and it is expected to maintain a weak volatility situation. In terms of short-term trading, coke is now entering a range of fluctuations, with unclear long short trends and strong short positions in the short term. It is recommended to rely on2755and2700A line of resistance spreads empty.

  Egg Main Contract:

   Eggs Fall Under Pressure70Report at around o'clock4274There is a small overcast line in the area, which hinders the circulation of egg products and restricts north-south transportation. Despite the spread of the epidemic, various shipping costs have increased, continuing to support egg prices. At the same time, the egg production rate of laying hens has decreased after the temperature drops, reducing the pressure on egg supply. In addition, the prices of corn and soybean meal are still high and strong, resulting in significant cost pressure on the breeding end. As feed costs gradually increase, farmers have a strong willingness to raise prices. However, last weekend, Wu Xiangyang, Deputy Director of the Beijing Municipal Bureau of Commerce, spoke that Beijing will take multiple measures to ensure supply and stabilize prices. Spot prices in Beijing have fallen, and the bullish sentiment in the market has relaxed. At the same time, egg prices are at a high level, and terminal resistance has begun to rise. Due to the impact of the epidemic, downstream food factories have a heavy wait-and-see attitude, and their stocking efforts are weaker than in previous years. They continue to be cautious in purchasing goods, and the overall market is moving slowly. In terms of short-term trading, the current trend of eggs is uncertain, and they are under pressure4250Nearby, short-term short positions are relatively strong, and it is recommended to rely on them for operation4330and4365Frontline layout with empty orders, radical ones can be relied on4230reach4250The frontline layout has multiple orders, whether it is empty or multiple orders. It is recommended to set a breakeven loss and hold it for profit, and see if there is a chance to win the middle line.

　

    At the end of the article: In trading, I have always emphasized rational investment. What is rational investment? I have always believed that the first point of rational investment is to recognize the risks of investment and wealth management, regardless of whether you are doing itgoldforeign exchangeTrading or futures trading carries great risks, so you must not invest too much money in playing with it. It is not easy to make money by speculating in foreign exchange or futures, especially when you don't know anything, so don't invest too much money in trading. I saw some salespeople's articles where they made a profit of several thousand dollars from selling orders today. How much will they double the funds tomorrow,I feel embarrassed when I look at it myself. A simulated transaction created by a simulated account is deceiving people. It's not like making so much money when it comes to trading. If it were to make so much money, wouldn't it be like becoming a multimillionaire long ago? Why bother writing articles here. So all investment friends must remain rational, open their eyes to distinguish between truth and falsehood, and use a small amount of funds to trade. Do not let investment affect your normal family operation, let alone be forced to increase funds and continuously lose money when the position is about to explode.

   

   Refuse the temptation of high profits and persist in rational investment. Investment and financial management are high-risk things, not as easy to make money, and maintaining rationality is the most important. Respect laws and regulations, avoid financial traps, and stay away from "high yield" scams. Investors must learn more relevant knowledge to distinguish between real and fake platforms, and learn the most basic knowledge of investment. Author Wang Decheng Futures Qualification Qualification NumberT329796Qualification certificate number of financial planner:CICFPAGC1161851Contact WeChat Sync on your phone:15851503763。