Wang Decheng:19日铁矿石螺纹豆粕主力期货基本面解读和行情分析

      What I want to emphasize this time is a99%The fatal mistake that all investors make is to only operate in the short term. The author can confidently tell investment friends that any trader who only operates in the short term will definitely lose, and it is basically impossible to make a profit. Only by focusing on medium to long term trading and supplementing it with short-term trading can you have a profitable opportunity. Otherwise, you will find that in the end, all of your principal has become transaction feesfuturesFortunately, the first-hand handling fee is only a few tens of yuan. If you do itgoldforeign exchangeThe handling fee of 300 or over 600 yuan per day is too high for frequent short-term transactions. Investment friends who have been trading for a long time must have a deep understanding of a phenomenon, which is that earning three orders is not enough to offset the loss of one order. However, once you turn an order into a medium to long term profit of several hundred points, you will find that the profit of one medium to long term order can offset the loss of about ten short term orders. This is the flaw of pure short term trading. So I advise everyone to stay away from the kind of teacher who makes you frequently operate short-term orders every day. You must adjust your mindset and learn to gradually turn short-term orders into medium to long term orders. Futures products such as coke, coke, coal, iron ore, apple glass, etc. are now in a unilateral market, which is a good opportunity to layout the medium to long term.

    好了，接下来开始分析铁矿石、螺纹、豆粕等主要商品期货下周行情走势。

　

    Iron ore main contract:

    2021年，受疫情推迟的钢铁置换产能和按计划置换的产能将陆续投放，预计全年全国粗钢和钢材产量在扩大内需、加大基建投入环境下延续增长态势，全年粗钢产量将维持在10亿吨左右。虽然市场担心若2021年年中废钢放开进口，会挤占国内对铁矿石原料的需求，但废钢进口量十分有限，并且废钢更多使用于电炉钢，即使放开进口，废钢对铁矿石需求的影响也将十分有限。2020年国内生铁产量再创新高，对铁矿石需求增量超1亿吨；2021年国内生铁仍有约2000万吨的增量，产量或将突破9亿吨海外复产预期强，生铁产量增约3000万吨，全球铁矿石供应预计增加6600万吨，增量主要在二季度开始体现；需求预计增加8000万吨，供给增量不及需求，全球铁矿石供需缺口仍存，铁矿石紧平衡局面将延续。近期港口检疫流程趋严，整体卸货量会受一定影响，使得港口库存继续下降，昨日45港进口矿库存续降24万吨至12223万吨。即便前期高发运即将到港，港口库存增长也受到抑制。展望2021年我国铁矿石进口，将压缩中国粗钢产量，由此将不可避免地导致今年进口铁矿石数量趋于下降。

   操作建议方面，铁矿走势区间调整，板块整体上扬，铁矿高位调整，建议1080reach1040区间附近高抛低吸，有一定盈利就出。

  Thread Main Contract:

   基本面来看，钢铁消费仍将维持上行，当前产能大多已经更新，符合环保及发展要求，环保政策覆盖的产能范围逐渐减小，边际效应逐渐减弱。2021年钢材供应仍将保持稳定增长，产量全面过剩概率不大。四季度钢市逆势上扬，在原料的带动下持续上涨。但近期降温后，季节性转淡还是无法避免的，尤其是当前疫情防控压力增大，近期形成跌势。而此后，若原料供应的缺口始终无法缓解，甚至在缺货的情况下导致成材减产，则上半年，螺纹期货仍将偏强运行，有望再次涨至4600元的前高。但随着焦化新增产能的接力，焦炭供需矛盾弱化，成本支撑有望下移。届时，随着房地产开工需求转淡，成材转入季节性累库，销售压力增大，则螺纹期价有望迎来牛熊转换，价格向下修复。从2021年粗钢和生铁置换产能计划投产量看，粗钢产量大概率会继续增加，但如果工信部确有政策使粗钢产量增速放缓，如此，根据钢材主要需求终端的预估计算，粗钢需求2021年预计同比增加2%Below2020年，而产量若能维持0增长，则粗钢将出现1500万吨的缺口，届时钢材利润将再次扩大，而原料估值可能受明显压制。

　操作建议方面：螺纹量能逐渐增加，走势区间上扬，走势突破压力，建议回踩4340and4300一线附近分批低多操作，不损则建议一直持有。

   

   豆粕主力期货：

　　近期商品市场资金活跃度持续偏高，油脂期价的反弹吸引资金关注，因油脂当前主力合约对应需求淡季，新高位置前资金较为谨慎，元旦节后饲料厂商补库积极，市场担忧进口供应受限，加速节前备货，推动国内豆粕期现价格大幅上扬。巴西未来两周降水预期大幅改善。天气不确定性推动南美生产供应担忧，需持续关注天气预报，尤其是1La Ni ñ a may have an impact on Argentine soybean producing areas. Reuters Research Expectations TonightUSDA报告将再度下调南美大豆和玉米产量，继续支撑国内豆粕强势。美湾和美西大豆按照3%的关税计算近月船期的进口榨利分别为-58element/Tons-58element/吨；巴西和阿根廷大豆的进口榨利分别为92element/Tons and2element/吨，近月船期的进口榨利依然偏低。春节过后国内煎炸食品消费将有所降低，油脂便处于消费淡季，而对于油厂而言，若要稳定压榨利润，只能依靠豆粕，因而豆粕价格必然会受到油厂挺价销售。过去几年猪肉供应降低、价格走高，也刺激了国内肉禽、水产、反刍等养殖收益改善，继而国内其他养殖规模也有所提升。随着新冠疫苗接种的开展，国内外经济将逐渐回归正常，这对于豆粕等快速消费商而言也具有一定的支持作用。

　　操作建议方面：豆粕整体处于上升通道过程中的一个回调过程，建议回踩3640附近低多操作，不损则建议一直持有。

    Refuse the temptation of high profits and persist in rational investment. Investment and financial management are high-risk things, not as easy to make money, and maintaining rationality is the most important. Respect laws and regulations, avoid financial traps, and stay away from "high yield" scams. Investors must learn more relevant knowledge to distinguish between real and fake platforms, and learn the most basic knowledge of investment. Author Wang Decheng Futures Qualification Qualification NumberT329796Qualification certificate number of financial planner:CICFPAGC1161851Contact WeChat Sync on your phone:15851503763。