Wang Decheng:18Fundamental Interpretation and Market Analysis of the Main Futures of Japanese Coke Egg White Sugar

   I haven't written an article for a week because of some things. Through communication with some investment friends this week, I discovered a99%The fatal mistake that all investors make is to only operate in the short term. The author can confidently tell investment friends that any trader who only operates in the short term will definitely lose, and it is basically impossible to make a profit. Only by focusing on medium to long term trading and supplementing it with short-term trading can you have a profitable opportunity. Otherwise, you will find that in the end, all of your principal has become transaction feesfuturesFortunately, the first-hand handling fee is only a few tens of yuan. If you do itgoldforeign exchangeThe handling fee of 300 or over 600 yuan per day is too high for frequent short-term transactions. Investment friends who have been trading for a long time must have a deep understanding of a phenomenon, which is that earning three orders is not enough to offset the loss of one order. However, once you turn an order into a medium to long term profit of several hundred points, you will find that the profit of one medium to long term order can offset the loss of about ten short term orders. This is the flaw of pure short term trading. So I advise everyone to stay away from the kind of teacher who makes you frequently operate short-term orders every day. You must adjust your mindset and learn to gradually turn short-term orders into medium to long term orders. Futures products such as coke, coke, coal, iron ore, apple glass, etc. are now in a unilateral market, which is a good opportunity to layout the medium to long term.

   

    好了，接下来开始分析焦炭、鸡蛋、白糖等主要商品期货下周行情走势。

   Egg Main Contract:

    周五鸡蛋强势拉升大涨190点左右报收大阳线形态，近期受气温及疫情等影响，提前备货的心理预期增强，消费端囤货意愿增强。蔬菜价格均呈上涨态势，提振鸡蛋现货价格大幅上涨。同时气温下降后蛋鸡产蛋率下降，鸡蛋供应压力减轻，加上玉米及豆粕价格仍高位强势运行，养殖端成本压力较大，养殖户在饲料成本逐步递增的情况下提价意愿强烈。不过，蛋价处于较高水平，终端抵触情绪开始升温，且受疫情影响，下游食品厂观望情绪较重，备货力度弱于往年，市场整体走货不快，笔者预计鸡蛋价格继续偏强震荡运行。

     egg2105合约，鸡蛋整体趋势走强上攻行情，鸡蛋连续区间整理波动洗盘强势行情，王德诚建议鸡蛋回调4600Support the upper level's batch entry and multi order strategy, with short-term attention4676and4695分批止盈减仓，趋势波段单带好利润保护持有。

　焦炭主力合约：

    焦企开启第十三轮提涨100element/吨，基本面暂无较大变化，山西部分焦企环保限产略有放松，产能淘汰任务基本完成，尽管焦炭总库存拐点和价格拐点尚未形成，但期价盘面价格中枢已逐渐下移，关注剩余产能去化执行情况、提涨落地情况。焦煤方面，河北疫情逐步发酵，部分线路停运、部分煤企提前放假，澳煤严控短期内不会改变，蒙煤和俄煤难以填补缺口，焦企采购积极性仍然较高，焦煤供需维持紧平衡态势。供应方面，目前主产地环保政策较为宽松，且焦企利润高位下，焦企生产积极性较高，发运情况较好，厂内库存多维持低位，然受疫情扩展至山西晋中地区影响，河北与山西区域车辆管控愈加趋严，流向河北地区焦炭有转向火运或暂时停发意向，现山西地区主流准一级湿熄焦报2350reach2480element/吨左右。随着寒潮来袭，叠加疫情影响，各地钢材需求都有不同程度的下滑，且需求有进一步下滑的压力。短期焦炭供应仍显紧张，上涨有落地可能，近期焦化新投产能陆续出焦，对当前紧张的供需形势起到一定缓解作用，然而面对此前因淘汰落后产能带来的供应缺口，短期内仍难以逆转。

   焦炭走势区间调整，上方承压调整，操作上背靠2860reach2730之间高抛低吸，区间多单为主，滚动操作，逐渐移动获利保护。

  

   White Sugar Main Contract:

　　有关消息称，近期印度内阁批准一项补贴，鼓励资金短缺的糖厂在10month1日开始的2020/21年度出口600万吨糖，补贴将转入甘蔗种植户的账户，种植户将获得每吨6000卢比的现金补助，近来主要由于受到广西等地雨雪天气炒作以及未来榨季乐观预期等因素影响，白糖价格出现反弹，但整体供大于求的格局不太可能因此快速扭转，所以短期来看，白糖价格或有回调，中长期随着榨季需求的乐观预期，存在回暖可能。未来10天，除青藏高原及其云南西部平均气温较常年同期偏高1-4℃外，全国其他大部分地区气温偏低1-3℃。根据天气预期情况，国内产区近来低温多雨天气多，或对白糖添支撑利好。20/21榨季全球预计出现缺口，主要由于需求恢复及泰国、欧盟等减产，这样新榨季供需形势好转。而目前主要要关注印度出口情况，一季度国际贸易流偏紧，需要印度出口来补充。而印度出口平价也在15美分以上，所以要满足全球供应原糖需要维持在15美分以上，给出印度出口利润。在全球宽松背景下，美元持续走弱也将提高crude oil和原糖估值，这也将影响远期巴西生产前景。短期预计原糖仍将偏强震荡。

　白糖走势调整，供需相矛盾，走势调整为主，操作上以5000reach5350Between high selling and low buying, rolling operation, gradually moving profit protection.

    写在文末：做交易我一直在强调理性投资，何为理性投资？笔者一直认为理性投资的第一点就是要认识到投资理财的风险性，不管你是做黄金Foreign exchange transactions还是期货交易，他都有很大的风险，所以你们一定不要投入太多资金去玩这东西，炒外汇或者炒期货没那么好赚钱，特别是你们在什么都不懂得情况下，就更不要投入太多钱去交易。我看见有些业务员的文章里今天晒单盈利几千美金，明天翻倍多少资金,I feel embarrassed when I look at it myself. A simulated transaction created by a simulated account is deceiving people. It's not like making so much money when it comes to trading. If it were to make so much money, wouldn't it be like becoming a multimillionaire long ago? Why bother writing articles here. So all investment friends must remain rational, open their eyes to distinguish between truth and falsehood, and use a small amount of funds to trade. Do not let investment affect your normal family operation, let alone be forced to increase funds and continuously lose money when the position is about to explode.

   Refuse the temptation of high profits and persist in rational investment. Investment and financial management are high-risk things, not as easy to make money, and maintaining rationality is the most important. Respect laws and regulations, avoid financial traps, and stay away from "high yield" scams. Investors must learn more relevant knowledge to distinguish between real and fake platforms, and learn the most basic knowledge of investment. Author Wang Decheng Futures Qualification Qualification NumberT329796Qualification certificate number of financial planner:CICFPAGC1161851Contact WeChat Sync on your phone:15851503763。