Wang Decheng: Spot gold next weekTDInterpretation of Futures Gold Fundamentals and Market Analysis

    I haven't written an article for a week because of some things. Through communication with some investment friends this week, I discovered a99%The fatal mistake that all investors make is to only operate in the short term. The author can confidently tell investment friends that any trader who only operates in the short term will definitely lose, and it is basically impossible to make a profit. Only by focusing on medium to long term trading and supplementing it with short-term trading can you have a profitable opportunity. Otherwise, you will find that in the end, all of your principal has become transaction feesfuturesFortunately, the first-hand handling fee is only a few tens of yuan. If you do itgoldforeign exchangeThe transaction fee of over 300 or 600 yuan per lot is too high for you to frequently engage in short-term trading every day. Investors who have been trading for a long time must have a deep understanding of a phenomenon, that is, three profitable orders cannot offset the loss of one order. However, once you turn an order into a medium to long-term profit of several hundred points, you will find that the profit of one medium to long-term order can offset the loss of ten short-term orders. This is the flaw of pure short-term trading. So the author advises everyone to stay away from teachers who make you frequently operate short-term trades every day. You must adjust your mentality and learn to gradually turn short-term orders into medium - and long-term orders.

    Okay, now let's start analyzing London gold and goldTDNext week's market trend for futures gold.

   Fundamental bullish factors:

　　1.US President elect Biden announces1.9A trillion dollar stimulus plan, the first part of a two-step plan; among3500Billion US dollars for local aid, in addition1600Billion for vaccine and testing expenses. The launch of a large-scale stimulus plan will boost demand for gold.

　　2.Federal Reserve Chairman Powell said on Thursday that "now is not the time to discuss exiting the ultra loose monetary policy" and promised to issue a large number of notices in advance before the Fed starts discussing reducing its large-scale bond buying program. Loose monetary policy will suppress the US dollar and benefit gold.

　　3.The latest data released by the United States shows that1month9The number of initial jobless claims for the current week has increased96.5Ten thousand people, an increase from last year3The largest since the end of the month, expected78Ten thousand, the previous value is determined by78.7Revised to 1000078.4Wan. This shows that with the increase of COVID-19 cases, the labor market is continuing to suffer. Weak economic data often bearish on the US dollar and bullish on gold.

Fundamental bearish factors:

　　1.The US dollar index has risen by more than0.50%Report90.76Expected to rise this week0.7%, for11The best weekly performance this week. The rise of the US dollar has put pressure on gold priced in US dollars.

　　2.index10The yield of one-year US treasury bond bonds is approaching10Hovering around the monthly high point, it started to rebound last week1%The above. The steady increase in long-term bond yields may ultimately weaken some interest in precious metals.

　　3.The US Department of Commerce announced on Friday that,12Retail sales have decreased in the month0.7%For the third consecutive month of decline. Economic data showed that the continuous impact of the COVID-19 on the economy boosted the demand for safe haven currencies. The US dollar rose against a basket of currencies on Friday, hitting a nearly four week high. The rise of the US dollar has put pressure on gold priced in US dollars.

   Technical analysis:

    London gold: Gold still fell on Friday, relying on the Asian market1845Shaking upwards, the European market is under pressure1856Falling back, the US market experienced a cliff like decline and broke through the intraday starting point for gains1845The loss of the starting point means that gold bulls are unlikely to make any further moves in the late trading session.

　　凌晨，黄金价格一度下探至1823Although there has been a rebound before the close, it is no longer able to turn the tide. The daily chart ultimately closed in a big shade, and the bulls have a long way to go to counterattack. Looking at the daily chart, this week gold has gone through a yin-yang cycle and also fluctuated, with the range of fluctuations being1863-16，1816The position did not fall below during the Friday closing session, which is undoubtedly the best news for the bullish counterattack before the Spring Festival.

　 because1863-16If the range does not break, it means that gold is still in a consolidation state after a sharp decline at this moment. Since it is consolidation, it is possible to break the level upwards1863It is also possible to break downwards1816We just need to wait patiently for the direction to come out, and then do position tracking after the direction comes out1863Pull back and go long, fall below1816Reverse drawing and short selling belong to the general direction of thinking. In1863-16Before breaking through the range, we hope everyone can observe and wait as much as possible. If there is no suitable opportunity, do not blindly open positions, because a volatile market is the most difficult to operate. If the direction is unclear and the rhythm is difficult to grasp, only by observing as much as possible can we stand invincible.

　　以上，是笔者王德诚对黄金本周在1863-16A rough opinion on range oscillation, hoping to be helpful to everyone in the overall trading process next week.

  goldTDFollow the trend of London gold, focus on next week377.2If the gains and losses near the front line are broken, the general trend will turn bearish, and the future operations will mainly focus on high altitude. If they do not break, this cycle of adjustment will end, and the future market will still see a new high.

   The trend of futures gold also follows that of London gold, and for the main contracts of Shanghai gold, pay close attention to them380Analysis of gains and losses on the front line, whether to break or not, with reference to goldTD。

  

    At the end of the article: When it comes to trading, I have always emphasized rational investment. What is rational investment? The author has always believed that the first point of rational investment is to recognize the risks of investment and financial management, regardless of whether you are working in goldForeign exchange transactionsFutures trading carries significant risks, so you must not invest too much money in it. Trading in foreign exchange or futures is not as profitable, especially if you don't understand anything. I saw some salespeople's articles stating that they made a profit of several thousand dollars by posting orders today, and how much capital will double tomorrow,I feel embarrassed when I look at it myself. A simulated transaction created by a simulated account is deceiving people. It's not like making so much money when it comes to trading. If it were to make so much money, wouldn't it be like becoming a multimillionaire long ago? Why bother writing articles here. So all investment friends must remain rational, open their eyes to distinguish between truth and falsehood, and use a small amount of funds to trade. Do not let investment affect your normal family operation, let alone be forced to increase funds and continuously lose money when the position is about to explode.

    Refuse the temptation of high profits and persist in rational investment. Investment and financial management are high-risk things, not as easy to make money, and maintaining rationality is the most important. Respect laws and regulations, avoid financial traps, and stay away from "high yield" scams. Investors must learn more relevant knowledge to distinguish between real and fake platforms, and learn the most basic knowledge of investment. Author Wang Decheng Futures Qualification Qualification NumberT329796Qualification certificate number of financial planner:CICFPAGC1161851Contact WeChat Sync on your phone:15851503763。