Wang Decheng:11Analysis on the Futures Market of Japanese Pig Thread Iron Mine, Coke, and Crude Oil

　

   Live pigsfutures：

    Live pigs2109周五上市首日暴跌，合约挂盘价30680element/吨，收26810element/吨（较挂盘价跌3870Point, drop12.61%），总持仓14984手，成交量9.1万余手。开市挂盘价格大幅贴水现货，但估价仍较高，造成盘中空头增仓打压，行情走势极弱，远月合约一度跌停。当前生猪产能虽然在恢复，但出栏量仍处于相对低位，2021上半年随着供给逐步宽松，猪肉价格或逐步走低。

    今日全国生猪价格以下跌为主，基准交割地河南生猪价格36.00element/kg（跌0.21），豆粕3592element/吨（涨61），玉米2543element/吨（涨49）。2020年生猪平均出栏体重为130kg，相比前一年同期出栏体重119kgRising8%左右，在高猪价、高成本情况下，部分养殖户压栏，阶段性降低供应。当前生猪供应仍恢复不到往年正常水平，下半年为猪肉需求旺季，下游需求逐步增加，加之疫情引发的冻品流通受阻，推高猪肉价格。春节期间需求高位，但因生猪集中性出栏，使得春节的价格都比12月低，生猪现货价格上行空间有限或高位区间偏弱运行。

    操作建议：短期生猪期价或延续弱势，逢高考虑布局空单，新品种波动剧烈，控制好风险，注意关键位资金情绪变化。

    Thread Main Contract:

　  Shanghai Thread4540Steel billets3800Steel plant operating rate67.13%Social inventory36410000 tons, steel factory inventory258Ten thousand tons. The steel production level has peaked and fallen, while profits continue to rebound and remain low. Inventory in the middle and upper reaches continues to decline, but the pressure to destock remains high. Demand has weakened during the peak season, and the asset atmosphere is facing high volatility,01The contract discount repair still needs attention.2020The supply side reform has been basically completed, and the policy's ability to speculate in the future is limited. Macroeconomic systemic risks are still expected to emerge in the second round, and the demand for real estate investment and production will also weaken seasonally in the later stage. Pay attention to the global trend of the epidemic and its impact on the economy, as well as seasonal production dynamics. Asset atmosphere driving inflation expectations further reflects and hits again19Annual high.

    技术面上螺纹2105合约周五下探回升中阳线报收4487(Last day's price)4455），形态属于继续拉升走势，上涨趋势继续保持。

　　操作建议：螺纹再度拉升，每日都在刷新高点，低位多单目前已经减仓设保护持有，新仓盘中回调乏力继续接多，止损30点以内。

　 Iron ore main contract:

　　今日铁矿高位盘踞整理30Multiple point reporting1067一带小阳线，现货：昨日港口PB粉(湿吨）下跌：曹妃甸1110，青岛港1110，日照港1110。普氏62%铁矿石指数$164.25（跌2.25），外矿价格高于内矿。当前钢厂高炉需求保持高位、受环保影响微降，高品位矿库存低位、降库。铁矿石港口总库存增加，到港量增加，外矿发运量下降，钢厂疏港量微降，期货波动影响现货市场心态。VALE明年铁矿产量低于预期。

　操作建议：　铁矿2105合约，整体形态区间波动偏强整理行情走势，日线周线走势将剧烈波动调整需求行情，笔者王德诚建议回调1050Support the strategy of entering multiple orders in batches above, please note1074and1080分批止盈减仓，中长线带好利润保护细水长流。

　　Coke main contract:

　　今日焦炭高位冲高回落蓄势80点左右剧烈波动报收2922大阴线行情，现货：全国多地焦企提涨焦价100元，山东钢厂已接受提价。当前山西、河北等地月底加速去产能，焦炭强势大涨。日照、青岛港焦炭涨价、成交稳定：准一级焦2450Primary focus2550，含税价。汾渭平原受天气影响时发环保限产，焦企开工率微调，库存低、强势涨价；煤矿整治及蒙古通关问题焦煤涨价；钢厂高需求，小幅增加补库备货；钢厂和港口库存小幅降库。

　    操作建议：焦炭2105合约，焦炭整体走强上攻拉升行情走势，日线周线整体走势将有望延续冲高行情走势，王德诚建议回调2894Support the strategy of entering multiple orders in batches above, please note2935and2956Stop profits and reduce positions in batches, and investors independently bear the risk of profit and loss.

crude oil主力合约：

　原油高开低走盘中横盘整理日内小幅震荡报收阳线。原油近期强势拉升上涨，短线有望持续涨势继续上攻多头，姜涞近期一直对原油保持强势多头思路，未来有望持续涨势继续冲高，建议多单可继续持有，盘中激进可逢低建仓多单。

　　操作建议：原油中线多头短线强势拉升上涨多单可持有，激进可继续尝试逢低建多单，新仓多单止损还是放在335Near.

     At the end of the article: In trading, I have always emphasized rational investment. What is rational investment? I have always believed that the first point of rational investment is to recognize the risks of investment and wealth management, regardless of whether you are doing itgoldforeign exchangeTrading or futures trading carries great risks, so you must not invest too much money in playing with it. It is not easy to make money by speculating in foreign exchange or futures, especially when you don't know anything, so don't invest too much money in trading. I saw some salespeople's articles where they made a profit of several thousand dollars from selling orders today. How much will they double the funds tomorrow,I feel embarrassed when I look at it myself. A simulated transaction created by a simulated account is deceiving people. It's not like making so much money when it comes to trading. If it were to make so much money, wouldn't it be like becoming a multimillionaire long ago? Why bother writing articles here. So all investment friends must remain rational, open their eyes to distinguish between truth and falsehood, and use a small amount of funds to trade. Do not let investment affect your normal family operation, let alone be forced to increase funds and continuously lose money when the position is about to explode.

   Refuse the temptation of high profits and persist in rational investment. Investment and financial management are high-risk things, not as easy to make money, and maintaining rationality is the most important. Respect laws and regulations, avoid financial traps, and stay away from "high yield" scams. Investors must learn more relevant knowledge to distinguish between real and fake platforms, and learn the most basic knowledge of investment. Author Wang Decheng Futures Qualification Qualification NumberT329796Qualification certificate number of financial planner:CICFPAGC1161851Contact WeChat Sync on your phone:15851503763。