forecast2021Annual gold surged to a new high

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　1month4day(Monday)Moya, Senior Market Analyst at Brokerage(Edward Moya)He said that the new year will bring more uncertainty. The Biden government will introduce more stimulus policies, the US inflation risk, the weakening of the US dollar, the bursting of the Bitcoin foam and other factors will drive the gold price up. He believes that,2300The US dollar will be a key level for gold prices. Currently, many institutions are bullishgoldTrends predicted by investment banks such as Goldman Sachs, Deutsche Bank, and Imperial Bank of Canada2021The annual gold price is expected to rise2300USD.

    forecasting by experts2021Gold rose strongly this year,2300The US dollar is a key price point, and Biden's launch of more stimulus is a major positive

Moya said in an interview:“2021The year will be a very strong year for gold, and I am very optimistic about it and believe that2300The US dollar is a key level. The epidemic has caused huge trauma to the US economy, and it may be seen that2021In the first half of the year, the United States continued its unprecedented fiscal and monetary stimulus

Previously, there were reports that it was expected that2021The annual gold price will reach2300The US dollar banks include Goldman Sachs, Deutsche Bank, and Imperial Bank of Canada.

The economic recovery in the United States is likely to be uneven and will take longer than expected. In view of this, the Federal Reserve will continue to maintain its loose policy and will become one of the last central banks to start raising interest rates, which will trigger further inflation trading and push gold prices to new highs.

Moya said that it may take until2022The complete recovery of the US economy will only be seen later this year, and the Federal Reserve will not raise interest rates until then. That's why the trend of gold is very good. He believes that the next six months of economic recovery in the United States will still be very difficult, and vaccines will not be successfully distributed as expected.

Given the issues in the labor market, it is not impossible for the Federal Reserve to implement yield curve control measures and provide more easing measures in the coming months. Moya pointed out that to2021By the end of the year, the United States may still have at least500Ten thousand people are unemployed and rely on unemployment benefits for their livelihoods.

　　

Moya said that gold will benefit from this as the incoming Biden administration will be relatively cautious, providing more aid and supporting longer blockades, which will drive the gold trend in the first half of the year and become a driving force for its strong upward trend2300The main reason for the US dollar. Regardless of the progress of vaccine promotion, an increase in gold prices will occur.

　　1month5On the day of the election, two senatorial seats in Georgia will be contested, and the result will determine the ownership of control in the Senate. After the dust settles, it will become clear how much more stimulus measures the United States will take.

Moya said, "In the1month5You really can't fully estimate the strength of stimulus measures and how easy it will be to provide fiscal support before the end of the Georgia Senate final election. Even if Democrats lose one of these elections and Republicans control the Senate, the US economy still needs support. Due to the struggles in many parts of the United States, the economic stimulus plan is not just a partisan dispute

US inflation risk, US dollar weakness and the bursting of Bitcoin foam will also drive gold prices up

Moya pointed out that inflation is2021One of the main risks to pay attention to this year is that he expects retail investors to have very strong demand for gold as they use it as an asset to hedge against inflation.

He said, "As the United States is emerging from the pandemic, inflation will become a big problem. Due to the re inflation trade, people will choose gold because price pressure will give investors reason to hedge against inflation, and gold is a major tool.".

　　2021Another major positive factor for the annual gold price will be the weakening of the US dollar, which is crucial for the continued rise in gold prices.

In Moya's view, to truly accelerate the rise of gold prices, the US dollar needs to weaken. As the global economic recovery unfolds, the trend of the US dollar will be largely one-way, with significant weakness, and commodities will benefit comprehensively.

Moya stated that another significant push for gold will come from2021The bursting of the Bitcoin foam in. He pointed out that,2020year12This popular cryptocurrency has been stealing some traditional safe haven inflows of gold.

He predicts now that by2021Sometime in the middle of the year, even before that, the foam of Bitcoin will burst. Now, there are too many new funds entering this field and really stealing a lot of gold positions. Many active hedge fund managers have been investing in Bitcoin instead of buying gold.2021At some point in the year, you will see some buying in Bitcoin disappear

　　2021At the beginning of the year, Bitcoin continued to soar and approached for a while35000The historical high of the US dollar, but in the1month4There has been a reversal in the daily trend, with a sharp drop of over6000US dollars. As of the time of writing this article, the price of Bitcoin has rebounded, with trading on31067Around the US dollar.

Moya pointed out that,2020year12In August, the bull market of gold lost some momentum, and a large amount of money turned to Bitcoin, but the foam feature of Bitcoin will not disappear soon.

He predicts that there is a lot of uncertainty about how Bitcoin will develop in the future, especially in terms of regulation. As central banks around the world begin to consider how their digital currency issuance will proceed, it is easy for some type of regulation to emerge, ultimately causing panic among institutional traders. They will also be willing to bet on the momentum of Bitcoin's decline, especially in hedge funds.
    (Spot Gold Daily Chart)

Beijing Time1month5day14:46Spot Gold Report1940.68dollar/ounce.