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MBG快讯：今日美国也将公布制造业数据，但重点在每日的ISMmanufacturingPMI。整体来看，预计美元指数仍然偏弱，不过，投资者需注意美元指数日线KD是否形成技术性背离

Focus of foreign exchange market

In terms of US dollars

上周，美元指数跌0.43%，主要是因经济前景随着新冠疫苗推出而改善、美国极低的利率、和正在进行的美联储购债计划，削弱了美元的吸引力。不过在上周的下半周美元指数也有一定幅度反弹，主要是因疫情的影响给美元提供一定的避险支撑。今日美国也将公布制造业数据，但重点在每日的ISMmanufacturingPMI。整体来看，预计美元指数仍然偏弱，不过，投资者需注意美元指数日线KDIs there a technical deviation.

In terms of Japanese yen

上周，美元兑日元下跌0.13%，一方面是因美元指数的疲软，另一方面疫情的影响给日元提供了一定支撑。因此整体来看，短线继续维持美元兑日元为低位震荡偏弱结构。

In terms of European currencies

上周，欧元兑美元涨0.19%。不过，在上周五欧元兑美元下跌0.67%，主要是受到汇率周三创下两年高点后获利回吐和对冲交易的打压。今日德国将公布制造业数据，目前市场预计与前值接近，预计影响较小。整体来看，预计欧元仍以震荡偏多结构为主。

On the UK side

上周，英镑兑美元累计涨0.91%，主要是因英欧达成脱欧贸易协议，提振了市场。不过在上周的下半周，英国市场监管机构出手干预，对可能扰乱数以十亿欧元计的互换交易限制措施作出部分让步。综合来看，预计短线英镑仍以偏多为主；但是随着英国持续地实施封锁，以控制病例的飙升，投资者需要注意英镑的后续波动仍可能较大。

In terms of commodity currency

上周，商品货币整体较强。主要是因脱欧顺利达成，以及各国陆续开始接种新冠疫苗，市场风险情绪大涨提振了商品货币。另外，投资者押注，随着新冠疫苗接种以及史无前例的财政和货币刺激措施出台，经济前景将会改善，这将在2021年提振全球增长和资产价格。因此，短线预计澳元、纽元仍以偏多为主，但短线上升空间或许有限，主要是因近期涨幅较大。

commodity market

goldaspect

上周，金价整体较强，主要是因疫情的影响，以及投资者仍然对今年美国新政府出台大规模的财政援助充满信心，这在一定程度上也将继续提振金价。因此，短线继续维持金价为震荡偏多结构。

In terms of oil prices

上周，美油波动较小，主要是因投资者在谨慎评估多空因素对油价的影响。考虑到美国EIAcrude oilReduced inventory recorded606.5万桶，降幅远超预期，以及市场对明年年初OPEC+恢复增产可能导致油市失衡的担忧有所缓解。短线来看，油价下调空间有限，整体以高位震荡为主。

stock market indexprospect

港股方面，上周五，因元旦假期，美股、港股、A股均休市一天。但考虑到目前全球风险情绪较高，预计港股短线仍有上升动力。

abstract

CFTCThe cash flow data shows that the short position of the US dollar is at its extreme value, so it is expected to rebound in the short term with the inflow of funds and support. In addition, the long position of the Japanese yen is also at its extreme value.

Pound/USA and Australia/US and Europe/US bears can redeem a portion of their profits.

Economic Calendar

Risk Statement and Important Notes

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