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Wednesday(12month30day)Asian period, USAcrude oilNarrow volatility, currently trading at48.25dollar/Near the barrel, there is still mixed bullish and bearish news, and the market has a strong wait-and-see sentiment. The US Senate has postponed a vote on increasing the amount of COVID-19 relief checks, and the US stock market has fallen from historical highs, slightly dragging down oil prices; butAPIThe significant decline in crude oil inventory has provided support for oil prices, and investors need to focus on the evening'sEIACrude oil inventory data.
McConnell ignored Trump's request and postponed a vote on increasing the amount of COVID-19 relief checks

US Senate Republican leader McConnell postponed a vote on President Trump's request to increase the amount of the pandemic relief check on Tuesday and urged the Senate to overturn Trump's veto of a defense bill.

Trump attacked Republican leaders on Twitter, calling them "weak" and "bored," clearly hoping that the Senate would reduce the amount of the pandemic relief check from600Increase the US dollar to2000The US dollar and supports his veto of the defense bill. McConnell quickly made a decision to postpone the vote after Trump tweeted.

After McConnell's rare speech at the Senate year-end meeting, Trump stated on Twitter that the Senate must approve an increase in the amount of checks as soon as possible, "unless Republicans want to die

During Trump's turbulent four years in office, the Republican Party in Congress mostly sided with him, but due to Republican lawmakers not fully supporting his false accusations of election fraud, this sparked Trump's anger.

Trump is also dissatisfied with Republicans' attempt to overturn a presidential veto for the first time during his term, as well as their opposition to raising the amount of bailout checks.

On Tuesday, McConnell prevented immediate consideration of raising the amount of the pandemic relief check, but hinted that the Senate would consider this issue along with the other two issues raised by Trump. These two issues are the fairness of elections and restrictions on large technology companies.

　　   

McConnell stated that "the Senate will begin a process this week to focus on these three priority issues. But McConnell did not elaborate on whether and how the Senate will handle stimulus checks.

Due to Friday being the New Year's holiday, the new parliament will be sworn in on Sunday, and current lawmakers have only a short period of time to take action. The US stock market closed lower after hitting a record high on Tuesday, with investors worried about the path of economic recovery and whether the Senate will approve an increase in the amount of bailout checks, causing concerns among oil bulls.

　　NovaPointChief Investment OfficerJoseph Srokaexpress:Senate Majority Leader McConnell refuses to approve distribution2000The move of a US dollar check caused the stock market to turn from up to down around noon. The plan originally signed into law has been digested. The question of whether the proposal to increase the amount of checks issued to individuals can be approved remains to be discussed

Mizuho SecuritiesfuturesDepartment HeadBob YawgerIt is stated that an increase in the amount of checks can "stimulate oil demand", and given that this stimulus factor has failed, it may not be conducive to oil demand and also drag down the trend of oil futures.    (S&P500Daily chart)

COVID-19 vaccination is slow, Biden said that the United States needs several years

The slow vaccination process, the continued global spread of the COVID-19 epidemic, and the resurgence of the epidemic in Asia threaten the demand for fuel, which makes the downward risk faced by oil prices linger.

US President elect Biden criticized the current President Trump's commitment to rapidly deploy the COVID-19 vaccine on Tuesday, saying that it has fallen behind expectations, and warned that it may take several years for most Americans to get the necessary vaccine.

　　   

Biden stated in Wilmington, Delaware that approximately200Ten thousand people have been vaccinated, far below Trump's previous commitment to vaccinate by the end of the year2000The number of ten thousand people.

　　   

Biden stated that at the current rate, "it will take years, not months, for Americans to get vaccinated. As I have long been concerned and warned, the distribution and delivery of vaccines have not reached the required level.   

　　   

Biden's goal is to take office by the time he takes office100Time, complete1The injection of one billion doses of vaccine means "increasing the speed to five to six times the current level, reaching daily100Ten thousand doses, "he added, pointing out that this requires additional funding from Congress. Even with such improvements, even if we increase the vaccination rate to every day100Ten thousand doses, most Americans still need several months to get vaccinated.

　　   

Vice President elect Harris of the United States received a live broadcast of the vaccine earlier that day, aiming to increase people's confidence in vaccination. She also warned that it would take several months for the vaccine to become widely available.

　　   

It is worth mentioning that the governor of Colorado announced that the state had found the first case of infection with the British variant COVID-19 strain.

The top infectious disease expert in the US government, Fauci, also stated that the vaccination rate in the United States is behind the target, and he is concerned that the number of infections will increase significantly after the holiday. expect1The epidemic in the United States may be more severe in the month of12The month is even worse.

The Irish Health Minister said that the mutation of COVID-19 could bring about disruptive changes. Denmark has extended the lockdown period for epidemic prevention by two weeks. Minister of Health of FranceOlivier VeranTuesday in France2The French government is considering1month2Early curfew time in some areas of the four major regions on the day, and the curfew time may start at night8Advance from midnight to evening6Points.

　　APISignificant decline in crude oil inventory

However, oil prices continued to rise on Tuesday0.82%，APIThe decrease in crude oil inventory exceeded market expectations, still providing support for oil prices; Current market expectationsEIACrude oil inventory will also decrease, and if the decrease is significant, it is still expected to provide opportunities for oil prices to fluctuate and rise.

National Petroleum Association(API)According to data released on Tuesday, as of12month25During the current week, crude oil inventory decreased480Ten thousand barrels, to approximately4.929Billion barrels, analysts estimate a decrease260Ten thousand barrels.

The data also shows that although crude oil inventories in Cushing, Oklahoma have increased13.1Ten thousand barrels; Increase in refinery refining capacity16.410000 barrels/Day. But gasoline inventory unexpectedly decreased71.8Ten thousand barrels, analysts expect an increase170Ten thousand barrels. Unexpected decrease in refined oil inventory190Ten thousand barrels, estimated to increase52.9Ten thousand barrels.

After the data was released, US crude oil briefly rose by over0.4%to48.32dollar/Ounces. Investors will also pay attention to the official USEIACrude oil inventory series data, current market expectationsEIACrude oil inventory will decrease310Ten thousand barrels, if the decrease is less than expected, it may drag down the performance of oil prices in the short term.     (Daily chart of major US crude oil contracts)

Russia and Saudi Arabia reiterate their commitment toOPEC+Our commitment to support stable oil prices

According to the official Saudi news agency, Saudi and Russian government officials have reiterated their support forOPEC+The commitment of the agreement expresses support for the stability of the oil market.

This discussion is part of a broader cooperation dialogue between the Saudi Arabian Russian Joint Government Committee on Business, Economy, Science and Technology Cooperation.

The Saudi cabinet reviewed the content of the conversation on Tuesday, and relatively speaking,OPEC+The stability determination of the oil producing countries alliance remains strong, which will limit the downward space of oil prices.

On the whole, the US enhanced stimulus plan is blocked, COVID-19 vaccination is slow, and the COVID-19 epidemic is still likely to worsen, which may drag down the performance of oil prices in the short term,EIAAfter crude oil inventory, market fluctuations may intensify, and investors need to be vigilant.