Wang Decheng:24日煤炭供应紧张，焦煤焦炭期货能否继续走高？

    Wang Decheng:24日煤炭供应紧张，焦煤焦炭futures能否继续走高？

    投资是一个长期的过程，伴随着亏亏赚赚很正常，如果因为一时的亏损而失去信心或希望，我觉得有些得不偿失，暂时的亏损不代表投资的失败，只能说明这段时间对资金把控的不好或者还没有真正学会对资金的掌控能力，因为亏损失去信心，无疑是给了自己退路，给自己暂时的失败找了一个借口，我想每个人都不希望这样，都希望找到投资成功的成就感和胜利的喜悦感！多去总结下过去失败的原因，想想到底如何才能做好，才能赚到钱，安静的离开只会给自己心理抹上一层阴影，心理会永久留下遗憾！如是这样，还不如大胆一点，勇敢的留下，相信自己，相信彼此，市场对每个人很公平，相信别人能做到，你一样也可以！

    好了，接下来我们开始分析行情，祝各位平安夜圣诞节快乐。

    Fundamental analysis:

      自中澳关系变化后我国在铁矿石，煤炭等工业基础原料方面供应变得紧张起来，黑色系商品的代表铁矿石和螺纹就是典型，在需求端预期持续增长，供应端紧张的背景下，黑色系价格维持高位运行不可避免。

　　据公开消息，陕西省榆林市等煤炭产地出现大卡车连夜排队等候拉煤的现象，榆林市煤炭交易中心此前发布的动力煤竞价成交价高达702element/吨，市场在涨价预期下一煤难求状态明显。现货市场的提价预期会传导至期货市场，刺激相关期货品种上涨。

　　上半年大幅走低的煤价怎么一下子成了抢手货？

　　煤价大涨主要是供需失衡所致，一方面国内煤炭产能较去年有所降低，预计内蒙全年产能减少约1亿吨，产能不足供应端不足市场形成涨价预期。另一方面，煤炭下游需求集体复苏，叠加冬季下游需求度补库存，所以当前是需求短期集中出现，但是供应能力有限，造成市场供不应求，一个微小的信号经过传播炒作就会放大，这用在期货市场非常合适，现货市场提价，期货市场自然也要大涨。

　　当然，相关部门也没闲着放任市场自由冲撞，管理部门采取多个措施平抑煤价，随着南方工厂提前放假，煤炭消耗量会下降。业内专家普遍认为现货端将在2021year3月份后开始进入紧平衡状态。

　　期货市场上，焦煤焦炭走出单边多头趋势，周线级别从5month29Of1059位置，到现在半年多时间涨到了最高1724.5，涨幅超70%。为此交易所也坐不住了，连续采取措施给市场降温，提高保证金+降低持续限额双管齐下，终于给疯涨的煤炭双雄紧住了缰绳，行情从单边多头阶段转入高位震荡阶段。

   Technical analysis:

　　月线级别已经7连阳，本月涨幅巨大为历史之最，目前价格距离均线支撑较远，这样强劲的多头走势主要还是市场过度反应和资金追捧所致，一旦市场情绪冷静下来，消息面吹来冷风，焦煤价格将逐步正常化。

　　周线级别均线向上发散，多头趋势明显，那些想中线看空的朋友们建议再等等，多空趋势的转变不是一天两天就能完成反转的。周线涨势放缓，后市还需关注周线MA5支撑的修复情况。日线上多空双方在日线MA5-10之间纠缠，从盘面强弱看，多头无力反弹，5日线料将失守，唯有下方10日线是多头需要坚守的支撑位。

　　故看盘思路上逢高压制别追多，逢均线低点支撑别追空。在消息面和炒作情绪淡化时多研究技术面K线形态，根据盘中支撑位，压制位判断后市走向即可。

    Written at the end of the article: Friends who work in futures know that futures are traded on a time share basis, at night11The market will stop at midnight, and traders don't have to stay up late to watch the market. That's really tiring. For doinggoldcrude oilAs a trader, the author has always emphasized a state of investment: strict light position operation, strict stop loss, strict reduction of operation, not investing too much funds in trading, treating trading as a pastime. It doesn't matter if you lose or win every day, and it doesn't affect the normal operation of your family. In this way, even with the wind and waves blowing, you can still be better than idle walking, and there is no need to stay up late to read and analyze the market. Once the market fluctuates greatly, you will be jumpy, Don't ruin your health by not making a profit on your account.

    Refuse the temptation of high profits and persist in rational investment. Investment and financial management are high-risk things, not as easy to make money, and maintaining rationality is the most important. Respect laws and regulations, avoid financial traps, and stay away from "high yield" scams. Investors must learn more relevant knowledge to distinguish between real and fake platforms, and learn the most basic knowledge of investment. Author Wang Decheng Futures Qualification Qualification NumberT329796Qualification certificate number of financial planner:CICFPAGC1161851Contact WeChat:wdckdj。