Wang Decheng:23日螺纹钢期货基本面解读和行情分析

         Wang Decheng:23日螺纹钢futuresFundamental Interpretation and Market Analysis

      

     12month23日周三上午盘，螺纹钢主力合约2105盘中触及跌停板4241价位，铁矿石主力合约跌幅扩大，一度跌逾8%，最低跌破1000element/吨关口，螺纹的跌停带动其他黑色系集体杀跌，周一黑色系还在大幅拉升逼空行情，转眼间多空转换，2天时间螺纹就从历史最高点跌下300多个点至4250一线。这搁以前一个月的波幅也就是2-3百个点，价格的大幅波动也产生出高风险高收益的机会，若从4600高点进一笔空单并能拿到4300That's it300个点利润。

　　本次大跌是消息面利空叠加技术面严重超买回调引发的踩踏式下跌合力所致。

　　

    利空方面：

　 　据英国政府证实，一种变异的xxxx正在英国东南部地区蔓延，它的传染性比常见毒株高70%。英国卫生大臣汉考克表示，英国对这种传染性极强的xx新变种“已经失去控制”。伦敦等地的疫情防控级别已提升至最高级别四级，非必要用品零售商店及大多数营业场所全部停业，原被允许的节日家庭聚会也已禁止。据不完全统计，截至北京时间12month23日，已有近40个国家不同程度地与英国切断航线。

　

  　解读：

　　此消息一出，金融市场原本预期全球经济恢复的美好愿景受到严重打击，转而开始担忧涉及国家地区，市场情绪从乐观快速转为悲观。本轮黑色系大涨除了目前现货供应不足和中澳供应关系外，最核心的就是市场预期明年全球经济恢复导致黑色系原材料大幅增加，在产量有限的情况，急剧加重了供不应求的现状，所以期货合约被多头资金爆炒，甚至快到了面粉比面包贵的程度，结果利空一出，主力减仓平仓导致大量空单出现，技术面多头趋势被打破，价格下跌，引出更多做空力量，最终行情逆转，高位垮台，行情由多转空进入回调期。

　　消息面，市场情绪上目前空强多弱，很多激进投资者已经宣称中线做空黑色系了。在笔者看来，虽然多头在消息面和情绪上已经没有了助攻，单边大牛市没有了驱动力，但是在供求失衡的现实状态下，没有解决供求问题信号前，黑色系依旧会保持较高价位运行，同时技术面多头短期大跌但依旧在均线上方，短期空头想要拿下均线向下死叉不是一日两日能完成的，后市由大涨大跌走势转入区间震荡阶段，指标方面关注日线,MA5-10 周线ma5

　　日内短线操作思路：螺纹今日虽然跌停失守5日线，但是不必太恐慌以为空头会把多头摁死在跌停板上，盘中多头在4250附近有较强承接盘，且下方MA10支撑逐步上修，短线超跌反抽预期强。

　　短期策略：下午盘给出4264多头策略可大胆持有，下方守4244that will do 上方目标4324(仅供参考，盈亏自负)

     Written at the end of the article: Friends who work in futures know that futures are traded on a time share basis, at night11The market will stop at midnight, and traders don't have to stay up late to watch the market. That's really tiring. For doinggoldcrude oilAs a trader, the author has always emphasized a state of investment: strict light position operation, strict stop loss, strict reduction of operation, not investing too much funds in trading, treating trading as a pastime. It doesn't matter if you lose or win every day, and it doesn't affect the normal operation of your family. In this way, even with the wind and waves blowing, you can still be better than idle walking, and there is no need to stay up late to read and analyze the market. Once the market fluctuates greatly, you will be jumpy, Don't ruin your health by not making a profit on your account.

     Refuse the temptation of high profits and persist in rational investment. Investment and financial management are high-risk things, not as easy to make money, and maintaining rationality is the most important. Respect laws and regulations, avoid financial traps, and stay away from "high yield" scams. Investors must learn more relevant knowledge to distinguish between real and fake platforms, and learn the most basic knowledge of investment. Author Wang Decheng Futures Qualification Qualification NumberT329796Qualification certificate number of financial planner:CICFPAGC1161851Contact WeChat:wdckdj。