MBG：无协议脱欧风险再度打压英镑，疫苗利好大幅提振风...

MBG 导语：周四，英镑兑美元跌0.86%，主要是因约翰逊周四表示，英国和欧盟“很有可能”无法达成一项贸易协议；且有消息人士表示英国永远不会接受进入英国渔业水域的安排和进入权。因此，短线英镑或许难改震荡偏弱结构。

Focus of foreign exchange market

In terms of US dollars

周四，美元指数走低，主要是因美国上周初请失业金人数高于预期，以及欧元大幅走高。就目前来看，随着新冠肺炎感染病例增加，将导致更多企业受到限制，在缺乏额外的财政刺激情况下正在损害美国经济。因此，预计美元仍将继续承压，不过由于前期美元指数下跌幅度较大，也不能排除在极短线上仍有技术性反弹。

In terms of Japanese yen

周四，美元兑日元冲高回落，一方面是因日本政府预计其经济刺激计划将使经济增长3.6%，超过了之前的预期和市场的普遍预期，而且近期新冠疫苗消息相对乐观，也削弱了日元的避险需求；另一方面美元相对较为疲软。总体来看，维持美元兑日元为震荡偏弱结构。

In terms of European currencies

周四，欧元兑美元涨0.5%，主要是因欧洲央行维持利率不变，增加5000亿欧元紧急抗疫购债计划（PEPP），大规模购债计划至少延长至2022year3月。因此，继续维持欧元为偏强结构，空间仍有待验证。

On the UK side

周四，英镑兑美元跌0.86%，主要是因约翰逊周四表示，英国和欧盟“很有可能”无法达成一项贸易协议；且有消息人士表示英国永远不会接受进入英国渔业水域的安排和进入权。因此，短线英镑或许难改震荡偏弱结构。

In terms of commodity currency

周四，商品货币集体走强，尤其是澳元。主要是因随着辉瑞的新冠病毒疫苗将很快获得来自美国食品药品管理局(FDA)的紧急应用许可，风险情绪有所回升，以及澳洲央行在11月份将利率下调至0.1%的历史低点后不太可能进一步放宽货币政策。因此，预计澳元、纽元短线仍为偏强结构，但短线上空间或许已相对有限。

commodity market

goldaspect

周四，金价冲高回落，整体波动较小，主要是因美国当周初请失业金数据高于预期，在一定程度上支撑了金价；但疫苗的利好也使得金价承压。因此，短线维持黄金为震荡结构。

In terms of oil prices

周四，美油走高，涨幅3.19%，主要是因周四消息显示辉瑞疫苗在美国本土获批上市在即，这一消息对未来经济前景立竿见影的提振效果，也直接在crude oil需求预期方面得到了反馈。因此，短线继续维持油价为偏强结构，但空间有待考察。

stock market indexprospect

港股方面，周四，恒生指数低开，收跌0.35%。盘面上，阿里概念股、互联网医疗股涨幅居前，在线教育股、光伏太阳能股走低。考虑到美股受就业数据拖累，开盘集体下跌，纳指盘中跌超1%。道指最深跌近192点，并跌破3万点整数关口。预计短线港股也存在一定压力。

abstract

CFTCThe cash flow data shows that the short position of the US dollar is at its extreme value, so it is expected to rebound in the short term with the inflow of funds and support. In addition, the long position of the Japanese yen is also at its extreme value.

Pound/USA and Australia/US and Europe/美多头可出局。

Economic Calendar

Risk Statement and Important Notes

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