MBG：美数止跌企稳，英国脱欧进入最后时刻，本周欧银决...

MBG 导语：数据方面，美国10Monthly increase in non farm employment opportunities24.5Wan, this is from5月份就业复苏开始以来的最小涨幅，市场预计美国将出台更多刺激，因此，中线来看，美元仍然承压，不过由于近期美元指数下跌幅度较大，不排除在极短线上仍有技术性反弹。

Focus of foreign exchange market

In terms of US dollars

周五，美元指数从两年半低点上扬，主要是因欧盟和英国谈判人员暂停就脱欧后贸易协议的谈判，令英镑和欧元承压，另外，美国10The yield of one-year treasury bond bonds climbed to0.9842％，也提振了美元。数据方面，美国10Monthly increase in non farm employment opportunities24.5Wan, this is from5月份就业复苏开始以来的最小涨幅，市场预计美国将出台更多刺激，因此，中线来看，美元仍然承压，不过由于近期美元指数下跌幅度较大，不排除在极短线上仍有技术性反弹。

In terms of Japanese yen

周五，美元兑日元涨0.33%，主要是受美国国债收益率上升和投机账户交易的提振。就目前来看，美元整体颓势趋势中线仍将延续，因而美元兑日元持续突破的可能性较小，继续维持其为震荡反弹结构。

In terms of European currencies

周五，欧元兑美元下跌0.21%，主要还是因暂停脱欧消息的打压以及美元指数的企稳。另外，本周欧洲央行将公布利率决议，目前市场普遍预计欧洲央行会加码刺激，因此，在决议前，欧元可能会有所回踩。

On the UK side

周五，英镑兑美元下跌0.13%，主要是受到有关英国脱欧协议存在不确定性的相关消息打击。另外，英国央行的两名政策制定者暗示，如果英国在未来的某个时候需要更多的货币刺激措施，他们对使用负利率持开放态度。因此，短线英镑或许有整理需求。

In terms of commodity currency

周五，除了加元以外，澳元、纽元整体回落。主要还是因美元的企稳，以及辉瑞疫苗出现供应链问题，产量减半也使得市场有所担忧。另外，近期商品货币涨幅较大，获利盘也有部分短线的需求。因此，预计澳元、纽元短线或有所调整，但中线仍然偏多。

commodity market

goldaspect

周五，金价冲高回落，主要是因美国股市升至历史新高，美债收益率跃升，削弱了贵金属作为替代资产的吸引力。另外，黄金ETF持仓量连续下降，投资者也需谨慎。因此，预计黄金上升空间相对有限。

In terms of oil prices

周五，油价连续第五周收高，主要是因OPEC+的协议和美国新一轮刺激政策的希望支持市场。因此，短线继续维持油价为高位震荡偏多结构。

stock market indexprospect

港股方面，周五，港股恒指收涨0.4%。乳制品、港口运输、生物技术等板块走强，美团正式纳入恒指。考虑到美股三大指数齐收涨，道指重返3万关口，标普500Index closing up0.88%，纳指收涨0.70%，道指收涨0.83%。因此，预计短线港股并不存在太大压力，或许还是上涨空间。

abstract

CFTCThe cash flow data shows that the short position of the US dollar is at its extreme value, so it is expected to rebound in the short term with the inflow of funds and support. In addition, the long position of the Japanese yen is also at its extreme value.

Pound/USA and Australia/US and Europe/美多头可出局。

Economic Calendar

Risk Statement and Important Notes

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