MBG：风险情绪上升，利好商品货币

MBG导语：今晚21:15The United States will announce11monthADP就业人数，目前市场预期为增加41万人，略高于前值。因此，整体来看美元指数仍然偏弱，但由于近期下跌幅度较大，下半周不排除在极短线上有技术性反弹。

Focus of foreign exchange market

In terms of US dollars

周二，美元指数挫跌至逾两年半低点，主要是因疫苗的利好，以及市场对美国出台进一步财政刺激以及全球经济稳固复苏的预期上升，提升了市场风险偏好。今晚21:15The United States will announce11monthADP就业人数，目前市场预期为增加41万人，略高于前值。因此，整体来看美元指数仍然偏弱，但由于近期下跌幅度较大，下半周不排除在极短线上有技术性反弹。

In terms of Japanese yen

周二，美元兑日元几乎持稳，主要是因美元走弱的同时，全球市场风险情绪在新冠病毒疫苗即将获批应用的预期下继续转暖，使得避险日元承压。不过考虑到英国脱欧谈判也传出利多，这对于避险日元而言仍是压力。因此，预计短线美/日仍然偏弱。

In terms of European currencies

周二，欧元兑美元盘中一度触及1.2077美元的两年半高位，尾盘上涨1.22%。主要是因美元疲软，以及欧元区将扩大并延长对企业界的财政支持措施，也支撑了欧元。不过，投资者仍然不能低估欧洲央行12月进一步宽松的可能。整体来看，欧元短线仍有上升动能。

On the UK side

周二，英镑兑美元攀升至三个月高点，盘上涨0.75%。主要是因有报导称，英退贸易协议磋商已进入“隧道”阶段，到本周结束时，英欧双方都有达成协议的希望。因此，预计英镑短线仍有上升动能。

In terms of commodity currency

周二，商品货币整体较强,其中，美元兑加元跌0.58%。主要是因数据显示，加拿大经济第三季度折合成年率增长40.5%，在第二季度创纪录萎缩后反弹提振了加元。另外，澳洲联储利率决议，将基准利率维持在0.1%不变，符合市场预期。因此，预计澳元、纽元仍有上升动能，但空间或许相对已有限。

commodity market

goldaspect

周二，金价一度涨超40美元，主要是因美元指数的大跌，以及市场对美国出台刺激计划的押注刺激了黄金作为通胀对冲工具的吸引力。因此，预计黄金仍有上升动能，但空间仍待验证。

In terms of oil prices

周二，油价连续第二天走低，主要是因欧佩克协议的不确定性使疫苗带来的需求复苏希望蒙上阴影。此外，API数据显示美国上周crude oilInventory increase414.60万桶，增幅远超市场预期。今晚23:30To be announced from the United States to11month27Day and WeekEIA原油库存数据。今日凌晨公布的API数据意外增加，投资者要警惕油价波动。整体来看，短线油价仍有整理需求。

stock market indexprospect

港股方面，周二，香港恒生指数收涨0.86%Report26567.68点。考虑到美股12月喜迎“开门红”，经济复苏的预期刺激道指升穿3万点，标普500指数及纳指更创新高，预计短线港股或许还是上涨空间。

abstract

CFTCThe cash flow data shows that the short position of the US dollar is at its extreme value, so it is expected to rebound in the short term with the inflow of funds and support. In addition, the long position of the Japanese yen is also at its extreme value.

Pound/USA and Australia/US and Europe/Mei can cash in some profits.

Economic Calendar

Risk Statement and Important Notes

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