Li Lianying:12.1黄金强势反弹还会跌吗，原油晚间行情如何操作

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=====goods in stockgoldMarket trend analysis=====

Monday（11month30日）现货黄金延续跌势，最低跌至1764.4dollar/盎司，市场情绪仍然偏向风险资产；上周五（11month27日）金价跌超1%Lowest drop to1774dollar/盎司，创下近五个月来的新低，因市场对美国经济将在疫苗接种的推动下迅速复苏以及白宫平稳过渡的乐观情绪日益增强。美元指数周一跌创2018year4month30Recently, it has reached a new low91.71，上周五跌0.26%，有关疫苗的好消息以及对拜登政府权力交接将更顺利的预期提振冒险意愿，促使投资者买入非美元资产。在黄金如此低迷的情况下，美联储的货币政策或将成为黄金的救命稻草。日内关注美国11Month ChicagoPMIGermany10月实际零售销售和欧洲央行行长拉加德讲话。

　　黄金技术面来看，日线级别，整体强势下跌；MACD继续加速下探，绿柱放大，KDJ显示超卖，尽管中期黄金跌势难改，空头牢牢把控盘面，但短线有止跌回升可能；长期来看，中长线见顶风险有所增加，继续关注目前支撑位1764一线的多空争夺；5month18Daily high point1765下方是密集成交区，存在较强的支撑。中期面临深度下跌，短线支撑较强，空头面临超卖风险，激进型投资者可短线轻仓做多，稳健型可等待中线逢高做空的时机。综合来看，今日短线操作思路上李联赢建议以反弹做空为主，回调低多为辅，上方短期重点关注1790-1795Frontline resistance, short-term focus below1775-1770一线支撑。目前仓位上有单的朋友，由于笔者李联赢不知道你们套单的点位以及仓位的详细情况，不好给出相应的解套策略，需要解套的可单线本人（官微：yy57564）

　　=====internationalcrude oilMarket trend analysis=====

Monday（11month30日）美原油探底回升，一度下跌1.6%to44.78dollar/桶，因上周日（11month29Day) OPEC+的非正式会议未能就推迟增产达成一致，市场对供给过剩的担忧有所升温，市场将进一步等待周一和周二的会议；另外，海外疫情也仍在拖累需求前景；不过中东局势趋于紧张，新冠疫苗的中长线利好仍在，油价要言见顶，还为时尚早。分析师指出，原本拜登的胜选使得市场预计美国会缓和跟伊朗的关系，甚至会杰出制裁，这意味着伊朗的原油供给会增加，目前而言，这种可能性显著降低；而且中东局势的紧张，一般会令市场预期供给可能会收紧，偏向在短线支撑油价，投资者需要留意局势的进一步发展状况。

　　原油技术面来看，原油上周五高位震荡，下探44.50附近启稳后反抽收盘在45.0上方，最终周线依旧收成中阳线，形成四连阳上升格局。周线处于多头趋势，日线高位横向整理修正，此前一波连续的上涨释放空间，短线稍有放缓，但修正的空间不大，日线仍偏强势的修正，本周修正后预计还会进一步去冲高。4小时回踩布林道下轨轻微启稳震荡，目前还未突破46.20高点，短线处于蓄势当中。从回踩的空间来看，不算太大，属于偏强的横向整理修正手法。综合来看，今日短线操作思路上李联赢建议以回调低多为主，反弹做空为辅，上方短期重点关注45.8-46.3Frontline resistance, short-term focus below44.4-43.9Frontline support.

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This article is written by Li Lianyingyy57564As a contributor, I interpret world economic news, analyze global investment trends, and conduct in-depth research on commodities such as crude oil, gold, and silver. Technical Director Li Lianying provides online solutions, loss recovery, and one-on-one real-time guidance. Due to the delayed nature of online push, the above content is my personal suggestion. Due to the timeliness of online publishing, it is for reference only and at my own risk. Please indicate the source for reprinting.