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MBG 分析:疫情影响避险情绪上升,短线风险货币需谨慎

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MBG 前瞻:市场对当前疫情的发展与德国总理默克尔的发言表现出更大的担忧,美元的避险功能得到强化,美元也因此获得了一定支撑。因此,不排除在极短线上美元指数仍有技术性反弹,但整体仍然偏弱。
MBG 分析:疫情影响避险情绪上升,短线风险货币需谨慎880 / author:mbgmarkets / PostsID:1583963
Focus of foreign exchange market
In terms of US dollars
周四,美元指数微幅上涨,主要是因在感恩节到来之际,市场对当前疫情的发展与德国总理默克尔的发言表现出更大的担忧,美元的避险功能得到强化,美元也因此获得了一定支撑。因此,不排除在极短线上美元指数仍有技术性反弹,但整体仍然偏弱。
MBG 分析:疫情影响避险情绪上升,短线风险货币需谨慎551 / author:mbgmarkets / PostsID:1583963
In terms of Japanese yen
周四,美元兑日元走低。同样是因在感恩节到来之际,市场对当前疫情的发展与德国总理默克尔的发言表现出更大的担忧,日元的避险功能得到强化。不过疫苗的利好以及美国政治局势的好转,也使得市场整体风向基调偏暖。因此,预计短线美/日仍然偏弱,但下行空间已相对有限。
MBG 分析:疫情影响避险情绪上升,短线风险货币需谨慎628 / author:mbgmarkets / PostsID:1583963
In terms of European currencies
周四,欧元兑美元冲高回落。主要是因德国总理默克尔暗示防疫管控措施可能延续至圣诞新年假日期间。另外,欧洲央行会议纪要显示,该央行同意在12月采取行动,并表示对疫情重燃后的经济不确定性提出了明确警告。今晚18:00,欧元区将公布11月工业景气指数和11月经济景气指数,目前市场预期这两项数据均较前值有所下滑。因此,预计欧元短线或有整理。
MBG 分析:疫情影响避险情绪上升,短线风险货币需谨慎612 / author:mbgmarkets / PostsID:1583963
On the UK side
周四,英镑兑美元走低,主要是因英国财政大臣苏纳克在讲话中总体措辞偏向谨慎,且在脱欧问题上没有给出具体的确定性前景,致使投资者获利抛盘。不过英欧准备本周末恢复面对面的脱欧贸易谈判,因此,预计英镑短线或有调整,但空间相对有限。
MBG 分析:疫情影响避险情绪上升,短线风险货币需谨慎151 / author:mbgmarkets / PostsID:1583963
In terms of commodity currency
周四,商品货币整体偏震荡。一方面是因亚洲股市较弱,使得市场风险偏好有所下降;另一方面由于美国假期导致市场流动性减少,市场开始消化近期强劲涨幅。不过疫苗引领的全球经济复苏前景将令大宗商品价格和风险资产得到良好支撑。因此,预计澳元、纽元中线仍有上升动能,但短线或有整理。
MBG 分析:疫情影响避险情绪上升,短线风险货币需谨慎261 / author:mbgmarkets / PostsID:1583963
commodity market
MBG 分析:疫情影响避险情绪上升,短线风险货币需谨慎686 / author:mbgmarkets / PostsID:1583963
goldaspect
周四,金价小幅上涨,主要是因投资人押注美国黯淡的就业数据及全球新冠病例激增,将会刺激各国主管机关宣布进一步刺激措施。不过考虑到疫苗发展的乐观情绪,这对黄金而言仍是阻力。因此,预计黄金反弹空间有限,整体仍然偏弱。
MBG 分析:疫情影响避险情绪上升,短线风险货币需谨慎34 / author:mbgmarkets / PostsID:1583963
In terms of oil prices
周四,美油冲高回落,一度大跌超2%。主要因疫情下对于需求的担忧重新主导油市,导致市场乐观情绪消退。此外,在欧佩克+即将开会讨论推迟增产之前,该组织内的一些成员国对于未来计划产生分歧。因此,预计短线油价为高位整理结构。
MBG 分析:疫情影响避险情绪上升,短线风险货币需谨慎71 / author:mbgmarkets / PostsID:1583963
港股方面,周四,恒指午后站稳后稳步上扬,尾盘小幅拉升,最终恒指收涨0.56%。盘面上,阿里概念股领涨大市,大金融、石油等板块表现稳健。因此,预计短线港股或许还是上涨空间。
MBG 分析:疫情影响避险情绪上升,短线风险货币需谨慎97 / author:mbgmarkets / PostsID:1583963
abstract
CFTC资金流数据显示,美元空头处于极值,因此,预计短期随着资金流入并支持其回涨,另外,纽元多头也仍处于极值。
MBG 分析:疫情影响避险情绪上升,短线风险货币需谨慎387 / author:mbgmarkets / PostsID:1583963
Pound/USA and Australia/US and Europe/美可兑现部分利润。
MBG 分析:疫情影响避险情绪上升,短线风险货币需谨慎359 / author:mbgmarkets / PostsID:1583963
Economic Calendar
MBG 分析:疫情影响避险情绪上升,短线风险货币需谨慎361 / author:mbgmarkets / PostsID:1583963


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