Moutai plummeted! Can we start the Baijiu section now?

The sharp decline in Maotai has once again raised concerns in the market about the flash crash of white horse stocks.10month26Kweichow Moutai opened low in the morning5.6%Low volatility throughout the day, closing report1643element/Stocks, decline4.22%Stock price adjustment or correlation withQ3The underperformance is related to expectations. The adjustment of Moutai also dragged down the overall performance of the Baijiu sector. At the end of Monday, the Baijiu index closed lower2.13%Within the sector, Jinhui liquor fell below the limit, while Yilite, Laobaigan liquor, and Jinzhongzi liquor all experienced declines exceeding the limit4%The stock price of Yanghe Shares continues to rise strongly2.50%。



Let's take a look at the reviews from the big shots together:

Yiluo Investment: strong performance sustainability still exists in the Baijiu sector

Since this year, with the gradual passing of the epidemic, high-end liquor has quickly recovered. At the same time, benefiting from the overlap of the Mid Autumn Festival and the National Day this year, the delayed banquet in the first half of the year has received compensatory consumption in the three seasons of Baijiu consumption peak season. In terms of price positioning, the terminal price of Feitian Maotai remains stable at3000The transaction price for the eighth generation Wuliangye Puwu is around yuan1100Yuan, Guojiao1573The terminal transaction price is950-980Yuan, Dream BlueM6+JD Pricing760Yuan, compared to the mainstream of the second high-end300-600Yuan price with misalignment competition. The deep penetration of different prices makes channel inventory more benign(about1About months)The destocking exceeded expectations, which led to the rebound of Baijiu plate after the festival.
Looking ahead to the second half of the year, although the stock market is currently rotating towards high valuation sectors and white horse stocks are experiencing a downward trend, in this context, industry segment leaders have strong risk resistance and performance resilience. For example, high-end liquor has demand stickiness in banquet and gift giving scenarios, and is less affected by the epidemic;The secondary high-end Baijiu is mainly used for wedding parties, family dinners and other gatherings, which has a certain impact during the epidemic, but the deepening impact of price band dislocation on the channel has gradually increased the willingness of dealers to pay money, and further enhanced the hematopoietic capacity of enterprises. Therefore, we believe that the Baijiu sector still has strong performance sustainability.



Li Changmin, Chairman of Snowball Investment: There is limited room for valuation improvement, and it is difficult to repeat the soaring Baijiu market


Baijiu shares from2018At the end of the year, there was a bull market for nearly two years, with several stocks rising more than three times. Driven by the earning effect, the incremental funds continued to buy Baijiu shares, and the plate formed a bull market effect and the valuation continued to rise. Baijiu shares are rich in cash flow and have strong certainty, and are the most heavily held sector by foreign capital. After the epidemic, the global central bank has released large amounts of foreign capital to continuously buy Baijiu shares, which has raised the valuation of baijiu shares. After the outbreak of the epidemic, China took the lead in getting out of social isolation when it was properly controlled. According to the forecast of the semi annual report and the third quarterly report, Baijiu stock market has withstood the stress test, which is one of the few industries with positive growth, so it is sought after by funds.


At present, the valuation of Baijiu shares is no longer cheap, and the space for valuation improvement is limited. There are more than two months to go into the next accounting year. Driven by the growth of performance, the valuation of Baijiu shares will enter the next year's switch, which means that the space for Baijiu shares to improve their valuation is limited, but they can earn money for performance growth. Baijiu shares will next enter the stage of shock rise, and the doubling of the previous two years will be difficult to reproduce.



Shennong Investment: Investment in Baijiu shares will not blossom in an all-round way


The rebound of Baijiu after the festival was mainly due to the expected retaliatory rebound of consumption in the market, and Baijiu's valuation had also been consolidated for a period of time, so the market sentiment rebounded. Since this year, the growth of Baijiu sector has been relatively large. At present, the whole Baijiu industry has entered a relatively balanced state. Looking into the future, we believe that the opportunity rate of the Baijiu industry is likely to be spotty, and the opportunities of individual brands with improved management and performance may be greater.



Wang Chunxiu, General Manager of Dongtuo Investment: Now is not a good time to start Baijiu shares


After the festival, Baijiu shares rose against the trend. In terms of fundamentals, the demand for the Mid Autumn Festival National Day banquet rebounded, driving the dynamic sales of Baijiu during the holiday better than expected. The overall performance of Baijiu enterprises during the disclosure period of the third quarterly report was good, enhancing market confidence. Baijiu sector, especially high-end Baijiu, has always been a super track in the eyes of institutions, and even if the market is not good, it is difficult to have a decent adjustment. We are optimistic about the future prospects of high-end Baijiu, but given that the overall valuation of the Baijiu sector is at the highest valuation range in history, we do not think it is a good buy now.


According to the opinions and suggestions of investment leaders: in the short term, it is not a good time to start Baijiu; In the long run, there is still strong investment hope

Article source:Private placement network