MBG 快讯：避险情绪有所降温，短线美元或有调整

MBG 导语：上周五，美元指数下跌0.09%，主要是因避险需求减弱令美元承压。预计美元仍有走强的预期，不过在极短线上有技术性调整。



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美元方面，上周五，美元指数下跌0.09%，主要是因避险需求减弱令美元承压。但考虑到欧美新冠病例的增加以及美国刺激方案几无进展，以及美国远期利率曲线相对非美国曲线的变陡，预计美元仍有走强的预期，不过在极短线上有技术性调整。
日元方面，上周五，美元兑日元跌0.02%，主要是因全球新冠病例数加速上升和美国刺激方案谈判继续面临不确定性的情况下，日元表现坚韧。不过考虑到近期避险情绪有所回落，短线预计美/日有一定回升，但上升空间仍有限。
欧系货币方面，上周五，欧元小幅回升，主要是受益于美元指数承压，市场风险偏好情绪有所回暖。但考虑到欧银有进一步宽松的预期，以及在疫情严重的背景下，欧元上行动能将有限。
英国方面，上周五，英镑持稳，主要是因交易员对英国与欧盟达成贸易协议的前景仍抱有希望，双方下周将继续谈判。如果英国和欧盟达成贸易协议，英镑将会走高，但鉴于英国政治方面的不和谐，英镑的上行将受限。
商品货币方面，上周五，除了澳元承压回落以外，加元、纽元相对较强。主要是因澳洲联储主席洛威表示：有可能将利率下调至0.1%，以及澳大利亚面临的经济和贸易困境进一步打压澳元。今日中国将公布三季度GDP数据，较好的预期或许在一定程度上会支撑澳元。
commodity market


gold方面，上周五，金价小幅回落，主要是因避险情绪的回落。但考虑到美国财政刺激计划前景预期的波动、全球冠状病毒病例激增以及美国大选前的不安，预计黄金整体偏震荡。
油价方面，上周五，油价继续呈现震荡结构。虽然市场担忧全球冠状病毒感染病例激增将促使各国实行新的经济封锁措施，从而导致能源需求下降。但美国crude oil库存的下降以及OPEC+承诺遵守减产协议的新迹象令油价得到支撑。因此，短线继续维持油价为震荡结构。
stock market indexprospect

港股方面，上周五，香港恒生指数收涨0.94%，盘面上，科技股反弹，抗疫概念板块，银行、金融、券商等大金融板块普涨；风电股、汽车股今日出现回调。考虑到上周五美股三大股指涨跌互现，短线上港股的压力或许也有减轻。技术上看，继续关注23200Support and24800The pressure.
abstract

CFTCThe cash flow data shows that the short position in the US dollar is at its extreme value, so it is expected to rise in the short term with the inflow of funds and support. In addition, the long position in the euro is also at its extreme value.
Europe/USA and Australia/元、磅/美空头可兑现大部分利润。
Economic Calendar





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