高常运：黄金还会跌吗？10.19现货黄金价格走势分析及美原油操作策略

　　个人想在市场上真正的赚钱，取决他有没有严格遵守纪律，能不能抵住诱惑，市场每天波动都有很多机会，而投资者往往只是盯住走过的行情，当一波行情走完，总是沉恋于前面的走势，而往往又浮澡于之后的行情，叹息“要是前面做个多或空多好，到现在就有多少多少的利润。”记住一点永远不要去后悔，永远向前看，如果你心里渴望赚钱必须找到与匹配赚钱的方法，而不是把注意力集中于过去盲区。这个理由是：市场有很高的机率往某个特定方向运行一段时间，至于赚多少取决于你的进场和退场的方法。
Spotgold，伦敦金，黄金走势分析【添加高常运本人指导微信：gcy8527】可获取每日国际黄金白银、crude oilOperational recommendations, 最新多空策略布局。
　　【黄金方面】
　　
Monday(10month19day)现货黄金窄幅震荡于1900关口附近，临近美国大选，美国新一轮刺激计划仍看不到希望，全球经济前景不佳，逢低买盘仍给金价提供支撑，机构和散户普遍看涨本周金价，但欧洲新冠疫情的持续恶化，推升了美元的避险需求，仍对金价有所限制。需要留意全球股市的表现，警惕持币偏好的变化。本交易日投资者需要重点关注中国三季度GDP数据，此前，对于美联储和欧洲央行官员的讲话也需要予以关注。
　　
　　美国大选在即，亚洲的基金经理正采取一系列传统和非常规的策略，他们买入黄金和中国股票以减轻美国总统大选前和结束后因市场动荡而带来的损失，现金或高等级债券相比黄金是更好的对冲工具，因为黄金今年已证明，它更像风险资产而非避险资产；英国首相约翰逊上周五（10month16日）表示，除非欧盟从根本上改变立场，否则现在是时候英国在未达成贸易协议的情况下退欧做准备了，他直言不讳地告诉布鲁塞尔，继续磋商是没有意义的。这给金价提供支撑，因为市场会增加黄金资产的配置以对冲英国无协议脱欧的风险。
　　
　　美元势录得三周来最佳周表现，因刺激计划不确定性和疫情忧虑，周一美元指数徘徊在93.64附近，暂时守住了上周大部分涨幅，上周美元指数录得了三周来最大单周涨幅，令金价有所承压；目前美元指数周线级别的看涨信号有所增加，如果本周美元指数延续涨势，这将令金价本周面临一定的下行风险。投资者需继续关注新冠疫苗的相关消息对美国股市的的影响；近期由于美元的避险属性极强，金价跟美国股市的正相关性较强，短线来看，如果新冠疫苗进展顺利，会给股市和金价提供支撑；但从中长线来看，新冠疫苗会减少市场对黄金资产的配置，打压金价。
　　
　　Analysis of gold market trend:
　　
　　4小时局部震荡当中，布林道开始收缩，均线指标凌乱发散，短期依旧是拉锯震荡，暂时看不出单边。上周次触及1913附近承压。此位本周依旧是重点的防守点。下轨处支撑则要留意1890 1880两个位置，亚盘在中性位置。离上下轨都有一定距离，短线还是拉锯震荡格调不改，周初看不出突破的迹象。走不出单边就会维持在区间反复洗盘。既然是拉锯震荡，卡点操作依旧是关键。小周期图由于反复探高承压回落，短线倾向于先回落下轨寻求支撑，综合来看，金价短线偏向震荡下行，所以今日操作上高常运建议高空为主，低多为辅。上方重点关注1908-1910Frontline resistance, focus on below1890-1882一线支撑。目前手上有低位空单和高位多单不知道如何处理或者近期出现严重亏损可添加高常运老师微信：gcy8527Seeking help, I will take the time to give my fans the greatest help.
　　
　　【原油方面】
　　
　　10month19日美油触及逾一周高点，欧佩克+担心，第二波新冠疫情长时间持续，以及利比亚产量的跃升，可能会在明年造成石油市场的过剩。疫情在整个欧洲相当快速地蔓延，北美疫情也反弹，这可能会拖累石油需求复苏。除了临近的美国大选，第四季度中国原油进口的不明朗前景为石油市场增加了另一个不确定性，直至2020年底。技术面来看，美油触及逾一周高点，但动能不强，未来一段时间油价仍处于38-43dollar/桶的区间波动状态。由于新的冠状病毒病例增加，欧洲国家正在恢复宵禁，导致预测能源市场将遭受更多需求破坏。印度有望超越美国，成为全球感染新冠病毒最多的国家。印度正迎来其主要的假期，未来数周将迎来病例激增。
　　
　　Analysis of crude oil market trend:
　　
　　原油上周五延续整理上扬收在高位，日图小阳线收盘，虽然整体空间不大，但是上周多头表现相对较强，回调的深度有限，最终仍收盘在41.0Above, the weekly trend closed higher. From the weekly perspective, after a long period of horizontal consolidation and accumulation, we have the conditions to increase our volume. It depends on when to put in the effort. The daily chart is also in the process of consolidation and accumulation, and attention is still being paid above41.50High points, breakthroughs will open up new space and further move up the range.4Hour chart, small steps, sorting and washing up, and small cycles involve repeated backtesting39.20 as well as39.80The area forms a low point upward oscillation, while repeatedly approaching a high point, brewing and accumulating momentum to complete a breakthrough. Short term bullish outlook, relying on this week's operations39.0Defensive points continue to decline, with support still in place40.0Nearby. From an hourly perspective, crude oil is currently experiencing a high level of volatility overall due to the impact of the epidemic,OPECThe impact of various factors such as production cuts and US fiscal stimulus. Technical aspectMACDBelonging to the continuation of the golden cross, whileBoll开口扩张，行情运行至上轨附近，表明行情还有上行空间，不过因受到前期高点的技术压制，预计很难形成突破行情。综合来看，原油短期内仍有下行趋势，但涨势依在，或将受底部支撑反弹回升，原油短线操作上高常运建议以反弹做空为主，回调做多为辅，上方短期重点关注41.3-41.5Resistance, short-term focus below39.2-39.5一线支撑。文章只能给你一时的方向和思路，至于具体进场的点位和止盈时机，高常运会实时给出，欢迎关注！添加gcy8527咨询高常运获取实时指导提示。
　　
　　作者寄语：Investment is a long-term process, accompanied by losses and gains. It is normal to make profits. If you lose confidence or hope due to a temporary loss, I personally feel that the gains and losses outweigh the losses. Temporary losses do not represent investment failure, but can only indicate that you have not really mastered the control of funds during this period. Losing confidence due to losses undoubtedly gives you a way out, I have found an excuse for my temporary failure, and I think everyone doesn't want it to be like this. They all hope to find a sense of achievement and joy in investing successfully! I think you should adjust your mood now, summarize the reasons for your past failures more, and think about how to do well in order to make money. Leaving quietly will only cast a shadow on your psychology, leaving a lasting regret in your heart! If that's the case, it's better to be bold, stay brave, believe in yourself, believe in each other, the market is very fair to everyone, you just haven't achieved it yet. Believe that this day is not far away!
　　This article is written byHigh normal operation(Official WeChat:gcy8527---Official account: Gaochangyun) analysis.Exclusive original by Shi, I have always been passionate about the gold and crude oil markets. Due to the delay in online push, the above content is my personal suggestion. Due to the timeliness of online posts, it is for reference only and I bear the risk. Please indicate the source when reprinting