MBG: Risk sentiment rebounds and can continue to focus on commodity currencies

MBG Introduction: Overall, the short-term downward space for the US dollar is limited, and there may be a rebound. In addition, short-term maintenance will continuegoldIt is a structure with more oscillations, but the upward space is relatively limited.


Focus of foreign exchange market
In terms of US dollars, Thursday,The US dollar index fell for the second consecutive day. Although US President Trump called off negotiations with the Democratic Party on a new stimulus plan on Tuesday, he subsequently pushed for the approval of a more targeted independent stimulus bill to offset the economic damage caused by the coronavirus, and the resurgence of risk sentiment also weighed on the US dollar. But we are cautious about the possibility of reaching a comprehensive stimulus agreement in the short term, so we expect the US dollar to continue to receive support before the US election. Overall, the short-term downward space for the US dollar is limited, and there may be a rebound.
In terms of Japanese yen, on Thursday, the US dollar rose against the Japanese yen0.05%Mainly due to the approval of the US independent stimulus bill, the rebound in risk sentiment has dampened demand for safe haven, and in addition, the strength of the stock market has also weighed on the yen. However, considering that the US Yield curve has not steepened further, we believe that the yen is still expected to strengthen gradually. Therefore, continue to maintain beauty/The day is a fluctuating structure.
In terms of European currencies, on Thursday, the euro and pound rose and fell, partly due to the intraday strength of the US dollar; On the other hand, from the minutes of the European Central Bank meeting, concerns about the strong euro have also been expressed, and it has been mentioned that the appreciation of the euro exchange rate has had a substantial impact on inflation prospects, which to some extent also puts pressure on the euro. On the UK side, with the prospects for reaching a Brexit agreement improving, the pound has stabilized. But for now, there is still uncertainty in the future. Therefore, in the short term, the euro and pound will still be under pressure, with limited upside potential.
In terms of commodity currencies, on Thursday, the Canadian dollar and Australian dollar were strong, while the New Zealand dollar was relatively weak. The main reason is that the New Zealand Federal Reserve has stated that it is actively committed to negative interest rates and the financing for loan program, and has stated that recent monetary policy actions are taking effect to lower interest rates, putting pressure on the New Zealand dollar. The strength of the Canadian dollar is mainly boosted by rising commodity prices. In terms of the Australian dollar, although the Federal Reserve of Australia continues to signal potential further easing of monetary policy, it is worth noting that the Federal Reserve of Australia is still unwilling to accept negative interest rates or intervene in the exchange rate, which is beneficial for the Australian dollar; In addition, the Australian dollar is more closely related to the performance of the Chinese economy. Therefore, the Australian and Canadian dollars may still rebound in the short term, but the space is not necessarily large.
commodity market


In terms of gold, on Thursday, gold prices rose and fell, mainly due to the uncertainty of the US presidential election and optimistic expectations of US fiscal stimulus measures, driving gold prices higher. Therefore, in the short term, gold continues to maintain a more volatile structure, but the upward space is relatively limited.

In terms of oil prices, on Thursday, oil prices rose by over3%Mainly supported by the shutdown of production before the onset of the Gulf of Mexico storm in the United States and the possible reduction of production in Saudi Arabia and Norway. In the short term, there is still significant pressure near the age limit, so it is expected that the short-term upward space is limited.

stock market indexprospect

In terms of Hong Kong stocks, on Thursday, the Hang Seng Index fell first and then rose, and finally closed down0.20%Report24193.35Point. Considering that the three major US stock indices opened high on Thursday and the intraday gains expanded, this may still have some support for Hong Kong stocks in the short term. Technically, continue to follow23200Support and25000The pressure.
abstract

CFTCThe cash flow data shows that the short position in the US dollar is at its extreme value, so it is expected to rise in the short term with the inflow of funds and support. In addition, the long position in the euro is also at its extreme value.
pound/USA and Australia/US bulls can cash in some profits.

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