周品源：10.8区间震荡来回洗礼意图暗藏玄机？黄金走势分析

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　　gold日内行情解读

　　

Message: Thursday（10month8Spot gold fluctuated in a narrow range, current report1886.43美元。周三因为美国两党仍可能出台一项针对航空公司的250亿美元的援助议案，提振了市场对于出台刺激的预期，因此施压美元，提振金价。同时北京时间周四凌晨美联储纪要中显示美联储内部分歧加剧，部分官员对扩大购债规模持开放态度，也对美元构成部分压力。此外，民调显示市场进一步押注拜登赢得大选，且民主党将夺回参议院的控制权，这或推动更大规模的刺激措施，也对黄金构成支撑。

　　

　　整体来说，近期美元仍是主导黄金走势的关键因素，市场需要继续关注刺激方案和美国大选的进展。从长期看，由于疫情持续蔓延继续打击全球经济复苏前景，且各国央行可能继续扩大刺激措施以支撑经济，这对黄金构成支撑。不过随着8Global central banks have become net sellers of gold for the first time in a year and a half, and recently, goldETFThe significant slowdown in the growth rate of holdings suggests that after experiencing a significant increase in gold prices, there was a short-term shortage of buying demand in the market.

　　

　　针对金价的走势，黄金多头眼下面临两座大山

　　

　　川普周二意外叫停与民主党的刺激方案谈判，呼吁将谈判推迟到美国大选之后，新一轮刺激计划的希望被意外“浇灭”打击市场风险偏好情绪，美股几乎回吐了因特朗普出院回归白宫带来的全部涨幅、风险偏好降温令美元受到提振反弹走强，由于美元如今已经成为国际市场中主要的低息融资货币，风险偏好降低将导致投资者抛售非美元计价的风险资产同时偿还美元贷款。

　　

Although Trump later stated that "some independent rescue measures will be taken," the market reaction was not enthusiastic, indicating that risk appetite may be difficult to return to Monday's state, which may mean that the US dollar may further rebound. At least technically, the US dollar has the conditions to further rebound and rise, which is one of the important downside risks faced by gold prices.

　　

Another major risk faced by gold is the strengthening of US bond yields. Gold Price and Actual Yield(Equivalent to nominal rate of return excluding inflation rate)It has a strong negative correlation, and usually we use10The yield of one-year US bonds represents the nominal yield here, Monday10The yield of one-year US Treasury bonds surged13%Despite yesterday10The yield on one-year US Treasury bonds has fallen by nearly7%But so far in the day, it has rebounded5%This indicates that the upward momentum of US bond yields remains strong. That is to say, the actual yield may continue to rebound, thereby weakening the relative attractiveness of gold.

　　

However, overall, the US dollar remains a key factor dominating the trend of gold in the near future, and the market needs to continue to monitor the progress of the stimulus package and the US election. In the long run, the continued spread of the epidemic continues to undermine the prospects for global economic recovery, and central banks may continue to expand stimulus measures to support the economy, which provides support for gold. But with the8Global central banks have become net sellers of gold for the first time in a year and a half, and recently, goldETFThe significant slowdown in the growth rate of holdings suggests that after experiencing a significant increase in gold prices, there was a short-term shortage of buying demand in the market.

　　

　　黄金走势分析及操作建议

　　

From a technical perspective of gold, from a daily perspective, it fluctuates widely; The Bollinger Bands closed, and gold prices fluctuated between the middle and lower tracks during trading, putting pressure on them1900Gateway;MACDAdhesion, weak kinetic energy,KDJThere are signs of adhesion and the index is located at50Nearby. From a technical perspective, gold is currently in a long and anxious market, returning1900Above, it is recommended to cautiously short at high positions.4From an hour's perspective, there is a wide range of oscillations; The trend of gold prices is relatively weak,MACDThe kinetic energy of dead forks and green columns increases,KDJDead cross, index at40附近。金价短线看空，中线料有见顶风险，投资者可谨慎做空。综合来看，今日短线操作思路上个人建议以反弹做空为主，回调低多为辅，上方短期重点关注1905-1910Frontline resistance, short-term focus below1865-1870一线支撑。行情千变万化，点位仅供参考，在投资方面有操作上面的问题可以添加笔者交流，态度决定一切，细节决定成败。文章只能给出一个暂时的方向和想法，至于具体的进场点和解套时机，请关注周品源的官微：zpy2357Will be provided in real-time.

　　

　　1The rebound above the gold does not break1896-1898Short on the front line, stop loss7Point, look at the target1880-1870frontline;

　　

　　3The pullback below the gold does not break1873-1875Long on the front line, stop loss7Point, look at the target1890-1910frontline;

　　

　　目前对黄金感兴趣的、刚入市的、资金遭到严重缩水的、收益不理想的的朋友想更深入地了解现货、foreign exchange交易基本知识可以与周品源取得联系！

　　

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