MEXGroupEvening briefing2020-10-07

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Focus of foreign exchange market
In terms of safe haven currencies,日内，美元指数震荡回落。虽然美国总统特朗普意外叫停与民主党的刺激方案谈判，避险推高美元，但民主党总统候选人拜登在民调中的领先优势不断扩大，也对美元造成拖累。数据方面，日内较为清淡，重点可关注今晚凌晨2：00的美联储9月货币政策会议纪要。总的来看，短线美元仍然承压。

In terms of European currencies,日内，欧元、英镑相对较为强势。一方面是因美元的疲软;另一方面，有消息显示，英国和欧盟已接近就英国脱欧后为各自公民提供互惠社会保障权利达成协议，这也对欧元、英镑构成了一定利多。不过，就目前来看，欧元、英镑的上升空间仍然有限。

In terms of commodity currency,日内，商品货币走势较强，其中澳元领涨。一方面是因美元的走软;另外一方面，尽管澳洲联储释放鸽派信号，但该联储似乎不像新西兰联储那样热衷于打压汇率，而估值和基本面则对澳元有利;此外，澳元与中国经济的表现更为密切。因此，短线澳元或许还要反弹，但空间不一定会大。

商品市場
goldaspect,日内，黄金探底回升，不过整体振幅有限，美国总统特朗普周二在推特上表示，他已告诉他的政府谈判代表，停止与民主党就新冠刺激进行对话，直至11month3日大选后。这意味着，美国新一轮的新冠刺激计划将被搁置。不过随着逢低买入者的持续涌入，最近6Tianjin GoldETFThere has been a significant influx of funds,ETF总持仓量再创历史新高，也对黄金构成了一定支撑。因此，短线维持黄金为震荡结构。


In terms of oil prices,日内，受到特朗普叫停两党刺激谈判计划消息的影响美油一度低开，盘中缓步回升。考虑到早间APIcrude oil库存录得增加95.1万桶高于市场预期，考虑到APIandEIA的正相关性较强，预计今晚的EIA或许会继续施压油价。

abstract
CFTCThe cash flow data shows that the short position in the US dollar is at its extreme value, so it is expected to rise in the short term with the inflow of funds and support. In addition, the long position in the euro is also at its extreme value.

Europe/USA and Australia/US bulls can cash in some profits.

Economic Calendar

(The above analysis only represents our views on the market and is for reference only;There are risks in the foreign exchange market, and investment needs to be cautious.MEXNot for(Direct or indirect)Responsible for any profit or loss that may arise from the use of this information.)
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