Zhang Jucheng;10·2双节狂欢遇非农数据波动大，投资操作需谨慎

Don't always think that the market has let you down. In this market, no one lives easier than anyone else. Trading is simple but charming;Often, many market trends are like this, and when you deliberately pursue them, they will run very fast;When you abandon superficial mundane thoughts, focus on executing every market trend for strategy and planning, some profits can be easily obtained. Wherever your attention is, the results are there. The more you express, the less you lack. When your mindset and execution continue to improve, money is just a gift. Attitude determines hardship and joy, concept determines success and failure, and the simpler a person is, the more peaceful their trading becomes. Many times, you would rather be killed in battle against the tide than reflect on yourself. A drop of ink can stain a glass of water, but it is difficult to muddy a river because a generous heart can accommodate it;One sentence can ruin a temporary mood, but it is difficult to determine a person's life, because fate is in one's own hands;An accident can make your footsteps heavy and difficult to erode your persistent pursuit, because you are "alive" in the market, and because you are strong, the road is ahead. Don't easily stop walking.(See contact information at the end of the article)

　　

　　goldMarket trend analysis
　　
Message: Thursday(10month1day)，国际金价重新走强，因有迹象显示美国新推刺激措施的谈判取得进展，导致美元指数可能连续第四个交易日走疲，贵金属重新焕发对抗通胀的魅力。现货黄金月线录得近四年最大跌幅，因为混乱的美国大选首轮辩论促使投资者入手避险美元。张钜诚认为，货币市场基金中堆积如山的现金确实表明市场中存在相当大的恐慌情绪，这可能短期内继续支撑美元，施压金价。除此之外，欧洲央行表示可能会追随美联储调整通胀目标，一反9月决议上按兵不动的立场，尤其是在欧洲疫情持续蔓延之际，可能也会对美元构成支撑。不过由于美国两党称刺激措施取得了进展，令市场对于更多刺激的预期升温，因此一度推动黄金收复1900美元关口。总体而言，疫情持续蔓延叠加美国大选的不确定性，引发了市场对于现金的需求，近期美元避险属性凸显，短时间将继续支撑美元，可能限制黄金的涨幅。但是从中长期看，随着大选引发的不确定性平息，同时全球持续的货币和财政刺激引发的通胀升温和负收益率资产规模激增，料继续支撑金价走高。
　　
　　技术面：张钜诚黄金日线分析：宽幅震荡；布林带开口，金价逼近1920Gateway;MACD死叉、绿柱动能渐弱，KDJAdhesion, index at30附近。从技术面看，黄金下行风险减弱。上行阻力位先重点留意1920At the critical juncture, this is an important divide between bullish and bearish sentiment, and once it rebounds, it will once again boost the bullish sentiment. Once the gold price rebounds above this level, it will attract bullish inflows again and further look up at the middle track of the Bollinger Bands1928And may even test50Daily moving average1944Near.
　　
Gold4小时分析：震荡回升；布林带开口，金价逼近1920关口，但始终未能上破；MACD金叉、红柱动能相对强劲，KDJ有死叉迹象、指数位于80附近。从技术面看，黄金多空焦灼，留意1920关口能否被突破。上行方面，阻力位先留意1920关口，若突破则看向100average1929附近。进一步阻力上看9month17Daily low point1933附近，该点位在9月中旬被多次测试，有一定参考性。综合来看，今日黄金短线操作思路上张钜诚芯建议低多为主，高空为辅。上方关注1925-1930One line of resistance, pay attention below1880-1885Frontline support.

　　

　　crude oilMarket trend analysis
　　
Message: Thursday（10month1日）美原油窄幅震荡。因为美国两党达成一致的预期提振了市场的风险偏好，因此推动美原油一度上涨近3%At the same timeEIA数据显示原油库存意外下降，也部分提振了油价。不过数据显示，9monthOPEC石油产量连续第三个月增加，增幅主要来自利比亚和伊朗，这两大产油国不受减产协议的约束。随着8monthOPEC缩减了减产的规模，这令市场担忧会加剧市场供应过剩的压力。不过8月超额生产的阿联酋在9月实施了补偿性的减产，这部分缓解了市场的担忧情绪。与此同时，美国最大的炼油商马拉松石油裁员12%，以缩减成本，暗示炼厂的产量存在下滑的风险，这导致炼厂的原油需求也进一步下滑。此外，疫情持续蔓延也在打击市场的需求前景。美国官员警告称，美国正步入肺炎疫情最危险的季节。与此同时，欧洲和印度的疫情仍在持续蔓延。总体而言，疫情蔓延的风险+全球需求疲软，美原油总体走势依旧偏空。不过短期看，如果美国两党尽快就刺激方案达成一致，可能会推动油价出现一波反弹。
　　
Technical aspect: Crude oil reached a high yesterday, fell back and closed down, reaching its highest point40.70附近承压，最终回归区间上轨之内向下运行，且虚破了一次38.80低点，最终仍收盘在此位之下。日图中阴收盘，但仍回归区间内震荡。虚破后持续性不足，多空依旧不明朗。日图的收盘就收得比较迷。整理之后的中阴下挫。要关注今日的延续性，如果今天继续收阴下行，那么短线趋势就会偏弱，反之今日重新启稳在38.80上方的话，就会回归38.80-40.60间拉锯震荡。短线4小时单阴下挫后开始小阳反弹修正。均线指标依旧凌乱发散，暂时还看不出单边趋势的延续。这也加大了短线操作难度。主要是空间延续性不足，且伴随拉锯洗盘，破位的区间也只是一个虚破诱单。保守得依旧选择观望，等待方向明朗。综合来看，今日原油短线操作思路上张钜诚个人建议以低多为主，高空为辅，上方短期重点关注40.0-40.5Frontline resistance, short-term focus below36.0-36.5Frontline support

　　

Message from Jucheng:
　　
The answer to all questions is never unique and unchanging. Whether the market is going up or down, you cannot control it yourself. Only by keeping up with the pulse of the market can you avoid being eliminated. The market cannot always go up or down, and what is certain is that it will always go right. Risk is an objective, inevitable, and under certain conditions, it also has certain regularity, so we should pay more attention to risk control in operation.
　　This article is provided by Zhang Jucheng. I interpret world economic news, analyze global investment trends, and conduct in-depth research on commodities such as crude oil, gold, and silver. Technical Director Zhang Jucheng unloads online, returns losses, and provides one-on-one real-time guidance on WeChat:zjc8393Due to the delayed nature of online push, the above content is my personal suggestion. Due to the timeliness of online publishing, it is for reference only and at my own risk. Please indicate the source for reprinting.