Zhou Hongjin:9.27Weekly Review-黄金破位下行，原油遭遇抛售；下周黄金原油走势前瞻

Summary:goldTrend analysis, gold trading strategy, gold market analysiscrude oilTrend analysis and crude oil operation suggestions
　　
　　在交易生涯中，每个交易者都会面临各种各样的问题，我们只有勇敢地直面问题，找到解决之法，才能体会到自身的成长和交易之美。而自律恰恰就是帮助交易者解决难题，消除交易困惑的重要工具。自律首先体现在遵守规则上。在交易中一个操作失误，可能就会酿成重大损失，甚至令人一无所有。市场之内，皆是规矩，唯有遵循才会长久。不放纵、不沉沦，那些拥有强大的自我主宰能力的人，终会在自己所擅长的领域内，做出非凡成就，而这样的成就源于自律。通过一件件事情去控制自己，磨练自己，用严格的日程表去要求自己，才能一步步达到自己想要的目标。交易中更是如此！
　　
　　市场回顾与展望：
　　
　　刚刚过去的一周，全球市场风云突变，惊现恐慌性暴跌一幕，尤其是周一几乎所有资产都惨遭“崩跌”，欧洲/美国股市、现货黄金白银原油等悉数重挫；资金涌入美元以避险。全球抗疫形势急剧恶化，尤其是欧洲等国新增确诊病例激增，进而实施更为严厉的封锁措施，引发经济复苏担忧；美联储主席鲍威尔本周频频出席听证会，再加上美联储众多官员的讲话，似乎都释放了一个信息，“美联储已经做了所有能做的”，呼吁财政刺激，不过由于美国最高法院大法官的去世，市场对新一轮财政刺激计划预期悲观，这也打压了风险情绪。与此同时，机密文件泄露，被爆出涉嫌洗钱的有摩根大通银行、渣打银行、德意志银行以及纽约梅隆银行等，这引发了银行股的危机，也加剧了恐慌情绪！
　　
　　在美元强势反弹，以及金价技术面破位之际，现货黄金本周暴跌，最低跌至1848.89，跌破前期低位1862水平，最终收盘在1860附近，周跌幅创下今年3month13日以来最低；现货白银跌势更为惨烈，最低跌至21.64, for7month22日以来新低，周跌幅达到15%, also3month13日当周以来最大跌幅。美国原油本周也因为市场风险情绪降温而遭遇抛售，最低跌至38.87dollar/桶，周一连破40、39Two major checkpoints.
　　
　　接下来的一周，适逢长达八天的国庆假期，但经济数据则更多，包括中国PMI、各国GDP、以及重要的美国非农数据；事件方面，英国和欧盟开始新一轮脱欧贸易磋商，美国大选辩论将上演，另外欧洲央行及美联储官员都有一些重要讲话。
　　
1、 Analysis of the trend of spot gold:
　　
Spot gold fell below on Monday1900The important support level of the US dollar once fell1880Near the checkpoint, the decline is close70USD, briefly returning on Tuesday1990Above the checkpoint, Wednesday and Thursday saw another decline, especially Thursday when it fell to7month22New low in recent days1848.89US dollars. After rising on Friday, there was a slight decline and the final closing was at1860Near.
　　
From the daily chart, the Bollinger Bands open downwards, and gold prices are under pressure on the lower track,MACDandKDJThe dead cross signal continues, with short positions on the short-term moving average, indicating that gold prices are still trending downwards; Below support, focus first on the daily low point1861.58Further support attention100Daily moving average1845.46If it breaks through this position, a new downward space will be opened, providing strong support7month20Daily high point1820.53Nearby, in addition1451-2075Upward trend38.2%Retreat position1837.17There is still some support;
　　
However, due to the continued persistence of gold prices100The daily moving average and a positive cross star were recorded on Thursday, and there are also some opportunities for short-term gold prices to adjust or even rebound; The upper resistance first refers to the lower track of the Bollinger band1872.96At this position, it is also close to Friday's high. If it recovers, it will weaken the short-term bearish signal and further resistance5Daily moving average1881.12Nearby9month21At the daily low point, strong resistance8month26Daily low point1902.89Nearby (can also refer to1900The integer level represents the recent bearish/bullish divide, and gold prices need to stabilize above this level to effectively reverse the current decline. If they can rebound above this level, it will increase the short-term bullish signal.
　　
Overall, the gold price has stopped falling in the past two trading days1850Under pressure1880More important resistance lies in1900The US dollar, this integer level, is the focus of future attention, and it is expected that the short-term trend will still be slightly rebounding, but1900下方应该保持积极的波段看跌倾向，所以短线操作思路上周鸿金（微：zh66646）Suggest prioritizing low altitude and supplementing high altitude; But after effective recovery1900Before the checkpoint, the midline is mainly bearish;
　　
Focus on resistance above:1875.2、1881.49；
　　
Focus on support below:1848.89、1845.48；
　　
Real time market changes, strategy for reference only, consult Zhou Hongjin for real-time entry and exit points and medium to long term layout!
　　
　　二、美原油走势分析：
　　
　　因市场愈发担忧病例大范围反弹将打击燃料需求，同时利比亚恢复原油出口的可能性也引发一些疑虑，油价周五收盘下跌：美国WTIcrude oil11monthfuturesfall6Cents, decline0.2%Report40.25dollar/Barrel; Brent crude oil11Monthly futures closed lower10Cents, or0.2%Report41.84dollar/桶。本周，WTI原油价格累计下跌2.1%，布油下挫3%。
　　
Looking at the daily chart,MACD金叉，但红柱动能较弱，KDJ金叉，布林带轻微收口并向下倾斜，油价近期持续受到中轨压制，短线面临重回跌势的风险；下方支撑首先关注100Daily moving average38.87，该位置仍可视作近期的多空分水岭，若失守则增加短线看空信号；进一步支撑在9month14Daily low point36.82Nearby,9month8Daily low point support at36.13附近，若持续下破，则新的下行空间将被打开；
　　
　　不过，随着油价收复并初步企稳100日均线上方，市场看空情绪已经明显减弱，若后市有加能坚守100日均线上方则仍然存在震荡反弹的机会；上方阻力首先关注布林带中轨40.42Further resistance55Daily moving average41关口附近，若顶破该位置则当前的弱势将可能扭转；强阻力关注9month4Daily high point41.87，若持续上破则增加后市看涨信号；综合来看，在油价有效突破41美元关口之前，短线仍偏弱势，短期关注38.87-41.00区域突破情况，短线操作思路上周鸿金（微：zh66646）建议，区间不破，暂时以震荡偏空对待，破位则顺势操作；
　　
Focus on resistance above:41、41.87；
　　
Focus on support below:38.87、36.82；
　　
Real time market changes, strategy for reference only, consult Zhou Hongjin for real-time entry and exit points and medium to long term layout!
　　
Disclaimer: The above analysis only represents the author's personal opinion and does not constitute specific operations. The article has a lag effect, and based on this, profit and loss are the responsibility of the author. Investment is risky, and caution should be exercised when entering the market.
　　
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