MEXGroupEvening briefing2020-09-18

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Focus of foreign exchange market
避险货币方面，日内，美元指数震荡下行，主要是因近日公布的一系列美国经济数据较差：初请失业金人数降幅小于预期，且之前一周初请失业金人数上修;财政刺激措施减弱，就业市场复苏转入低档。此外，市场还预期负的实际收益率将使美元空头趋势保持不变，因此，短线继续维持美元为偏弱结构。

In terms of European currencies,日内，欧元、英镑均出现小幅回升，主要是因美元的疲软。但考虑到欧洲新增病例数量的持续增长，短线欧元还是有一定压力。英国方面，虽然委员们讨论了负利率的有效性，这也使得英镑承压。但考虑到英国在实施《内部市场法案》方面做出部分妥协，以及近期英国经济数据有所企稳，英镑或许有企稳的可能。

In terms of commodity currency,日内，商品货币集体走强。其中，纽元创出了2019year4月以来的新高。主要是因疫苗的利好，以及亚洲股市的大幅走高，市场风险偏好情绪回暖。此外，目前市场普遍认为，新西兰联储在下周的政策会议上不会有更激进的货币宽松政策措施祭出，也提振了纽元。因此，短线继续维持澳元、纽元为震荡略微偏多结构。

commodity market
goldaspect,日内，黄金小幅上涨，主要是因美元的走弱，而且法国新冠疫情继续恶化，再加上英国考虑11月份推出负利率，均支撑了金价。因此，短线维持黄金为震荡偏多结构。

In terms of oil prices,日内，油价继续走高。一方面是因沙特阿拉伯再次强力敦促OPEC+成员遵守其生产配额;另外一方面美国墨西哥湾区crude oil生产关停超三成也提振了油价。因此，短线油价还是有一定支撑，但空间不一定很大。

abstract
CFTCThe cash flow data shows that the short position in the US dollar is at its extreme value, so it is expected to rise in the short term with the inflow of funds and support. In addition, the long position in the euro is also at its extreme value.

Europe/USA and Australia/美多头可兑现部分利润，镑/美多头可继续持有。

Economic Calendar

(The above analysis only represents our views on the market and is for reference only;There are risks in the foreign exchange market, and investment needs to be cautious.MEXNot for(Direct or indirect)Responsible for any profit or loss that may arise from the use of this information.)
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