MEXGroup：英国负利率预期大增英镑重挫逾，短线美元或将继续承压

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Focus of foreign exchange market
美元方面，周四，美元创逾一周新高后大幅回落，主要是因昨晚公布的一系列美国经济数据较差。其中，初请人数录得86万人，超预期;房屋开工和费城联储制造业指数也均有所下降。就目前来看，市场预期负实际收益率将使美元空头趋势保持不变，因此，短线继续维持美元为偏弱结构。

日元方面，周四，避险日元升至七周高位，主要是因美国公布的一系列数据普遍疲弱，且经济前景整体存在不确定性，支持美联储对复苏速度的担忧。因此，短线继续维持美/日为偏弱结构。

In terms of European currencies,周四，欧元V形反弹，主要是因美元的疲软。考虑到近期德国经济较强，欧元还是有一定支撑。但欧洲新增病例数量的增长或许也会限制欧元的上升空间。

On the UK side,周四晚间，英国央行利率决议出炉。英国央行维持基准利率在0.1%不变，维持资产购买总规模在7450亿英镑不变，符合市场预期。但委员们还讨论了负利率的有效性，这也使得英镑承压。因此，短线维持英镑为震荡偏弱结构。

In terms of commodity currency,周四，商品货币震荡走强，主要是因美元的疲软。不过中线来看，随着中国经济稳步增长，澳元、纽元还是有一定支撑的;但短线考虑到股市较弱，风险情绪下降，短线上升空间或有限。

commodity market
goldaspect,周四，金价整体回落。主要是因美联储未就货币刺激政策给出任何新的具体措施令多头感到失望。此外，美联储预计今年经济萎缩幅度将小于此前预测，也令黄金承压。因此，短期继续维持黄金为震荡结构。

In terms of oil prices,周四，油价大涨逾2%。一方面是因沙特阿拉伯再次强力敦促OPEC+成员遵守其生产配额;另外一方面美国墨西哥湾区crude oil生产关停超三成也提振了油价。因此，短线油价还是有一定支撑，但空间也不大。

stock market indexprospect
港股方面，周四，恒指跌1.56%Report24340.85spot;盘面上，大科技股重挫，纸业股、汽车股延续昨日强势。考虑到美股三大股指全线下跌，短线港股还是有一定压力。技术上看，继续关注24000Support and25000The pressure.

abstract
CFTCThe cash flow data shows that the short position in the US dollar is at its extreme value, so it is expected to rise in the short term with the inflow of funds and support. In addition, the long position in the euro is also at its extreme value.

Europe/USA and Australia/美、镑/US bulls can cash in some profits.

Economic Calendar

(The above analysis only represents our views on the market and is for reference only;There are risks in the foreign exchange market, and investment needs to be cautious.MEXNot for(Direct or indirect)Responsible for any profit or loss that may arise from the use of this information.)
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