许卫钟：满城黄金甲今天你的单子还好吗？

goldMarket trend analysis


　　黄金消息面：周三（9month16Japanese goldT+Dfall0.18%to416.24element/Gram; silverT+Dfall0.17%to5881element/千克。现货黄金升至1960上方，欲再度冲击1970，美联储利率决议前，美元跌跌不休，瑞银集团预计，美联储将会明确强调，在一年期通胀率预期至少达到2.25%的目标之前，将维持当前下限为零的政策利率区间不变，而这料令美元指数进一步承压。此次美联储利率决议是美国大选之前的最后一次，更使其意义重大。但人民币的升值限制了国内黄金的走高，美元兑人民币离岸价创2019year5月以来的逾16个月新低。许卫钟认为目前各种利好黄金的基本面因素都还在，包括了围绕疫情的经济不确定性、地缘风险和股市风险等，都为黄金带来避险需求的提振。此外，通胀压力升温也将推高金价。美联储调整至平均通胀2%，就意味着通胀能够涨至2%上方，也就是说利率会长期维持在低水平，这对黄金来说绝对是个好消息。


　　黄金技术面：许卫钟徽xwz2535芯黄金行情还是震荡反复，并且波动空间减小，操作布局上就必须锁定精准的阻力和支撑，在中间价位保持观望为主。日线反复横盘17个交易日，周线阴阳交替，大小区间均是多空方向不明，这种行情强弱不延续，大阴大阳勿追涨杀跌，等待行情明朗进行布局更安全。黄金大区间分析：价格短线横盘震荡反复。市场多空方向不明，那么最为临近的支撑和阻力，形成了价格的运行区间。


　　黄金价格处于高点下移和低点上移的盘整走势之中，目前正在测试下降自8Resistance to the downward trend line since the beginning of the month1970First line. On the one hand, due to the expected increase in economic recovery, goldETF持仓跌至一个半月新低，警惕存在进一步下滑的空间。金瑞目前从4Analyzing the hourly trend: The Bollinger Belt's three tracks are slightly upward sloping,MACDAdhesion, weak kinetic energy,KDJSame adhesive, index located at35Nearby. Short term gold is expected to maintain a volatile trend. Gold Price Test Triangle Lower Track1937Nearby support rebounds, although gold is currently in a volatile trend, below1937-40区域的支撑非常明显，1937位置即是回踩支撑位置，也是30The long-term moving average support position on the minute trend chart, at which there is only one possibility to do more. The current gold has risen to the initial pressure1976区域，是否突破再次拉升暂时不确定。综合来看，今日黄金短线操作思路上许卫钟徽xwz2535芯建议低多为主，高空为辅。上方关注1980-1985One line of resistance, pay attention below1940-1945Frontline support.


　　crude oilMarket trend analysis


　　原油消息面：周三（9month16日）油价上涨，延续上日的升势，美原油一度创一周高点至39.39dollar/桶，涨幅逾2%；布油最高触及41.49dollar/桶。因飓风影响美国海上油气生产，且一份行业报告显示，美国原油库存大幅下降。尽管如此，石油市场整体仍相对疲软，因不确定全球燃料需求何时能从大流行引发的崩溃中反弹。眼下，一些全球最大的石油供应商正在描绘一幅黯淡的原油需求前景。OPEC+联盟本周不太可能宣布进一步限制石油产量，不过OPEC+将延长伊拉克和尼日利亚等国实施补偿性减产的时间。据报道，OPEC+联合减产监督委员会（JMMC）可能会在9月份会议上允许伊拉克等产油国将补偿性减产行动延长至10-11月份。此外，沙特无意通过额外的自愿减产来提振油价。在最新一轮减产中，OPEC+的减产力度为77010000 barrels/日，约占全球需求的8%，同时要求伊拉克和其他国家在9月低于配额生产，以弥补5Month to7月的超配额生产。媒体报道称，该联盟可能会将补偿性减产实施期延长至10Month and11月，以让伊拉克和其他国家达到他们的减产目标。而将于周四举行的OPEC+Joint Ministerial Supervisory Committee(JMMC)线上会议也不太可能建议调整产量目标。


　　原油技术面：日线上看，隔日原油自低点36.11The US dollar has rebounded and rebounded around, but still closed at5On a daily basis, crude oil was suppressed and hit an intraday high before falling back, closing with a bullish candlestick. On a daily basis, crude oil was suppressed and hovered below, and may continue to rise and fall within the day;4From an hourly perspective, the next day crude oil began to fluctuate upwards from a low level and fell back after hitting the middle track. Currently, the Bollinger Bands are in an opening period,MA5AndMA10After stepping out of the golden fork, turn your head forward,KDJThe random indicator reaches overbought on the third line, with a slight downward hook,MACDThe red kinetic energy column of the indicator continues to increase in volume, with the fast and slow lines crossing upwards. Currently, the increase in crude oil is limited, and the technical side is facing overbought, with the possibility of a decline.

　　原油走势来看，高点不断下移，低点也在逐步创新低，1A downward trend at the hourly level. AndMACDAlso in the0Below the axis, descriptionWTIThe short selling power of crude oil has been relatively strong recently, and it is difficult to change the rhythm of the decline in the short term rebound. The rebound of crude oil will not break through38.5It means giving the opportunity to dry up, and the oil price continues to rise5The day is closing in shade, and bears are fierce.4Hour levelK线在布林线中轨及均线下方运行，小时线级别也是受到压制，同时并未观察到任何的指标背离。原油价格日内将延续下跌。综合来看，今日原油短线操作思路上许卫钟个人建议以反弹高空为主，回调做多为辅，上方短期重点关注41.0-41.5Frontline resistance, short-term focus below37.0-37.5Frontline support.