9.14Can gold break free from range fluctuations? Analysis of the Trend of Gold and Crude Oil in Evening Futures

The investment market is constantly changing, with long and short positions constantly crossing. We cannot go long when we see an increase, nor should we go short when we see a decrease. Having found the right direction and following firmly, we can only make money in the market for a long time by implementing the trading plan we have made, regardless of profit or loss. The establishment of trading plans is usually done when we are very calm and rational, and the decisions and ideas we make when the market fluctuates slightly are determined by following the fluctuations of the market. Many operations are made in an irrational and calm manner, which is often an addiction that many people cannot quit, leading to the root cause of most people's losses, just like nowgoldAfter an upward trend and a pullback, many people may be afraid. The market will not stop because you are afraid of it. Trading is nothing more than buying up and buying down. From a simple probability perspective, each occupies its own share50%Whether you are afraid or not, you will choose a direction to go, and the trading decisions we make immediately due to market fluctuations generally have a winning rate of50%The following means that most unprofitable individuals have a probability of operating below half. If we want to make money in the market, we need to increase our probability of success. The simplest way is to calmly and rationally make the trading probability before trading, and strictly execute it. Even if you flip a coin, the probability is higher than what you make due to market fluctuations, so strictly executing your trading plan is very important.
　　
Investing in goldcrude oilNot many or empty, two directions, but it reveals that it is not simple. Everyone has their own ideas, whether on trends or short-term, but some people are stubborn. Only those who know how to admit mistakes and make timely adjustments in the gold investment market can win a piece of the market. Just like life, there are too many principles of being a person that everyone understands, but ultimately they cannot overcome their own personality weaknesses. So, if you want to seize your own in this market-To share profits, you must abide by the rules of this market. Lianzhen - Gold and Crude Oil Investment Strategy Analyst Guidance on Call for Orders at Current Prices in Real Trade（jy85839）
　　
Gold Message:
　　
Gold face, this week the Federal Reserve9The monthly interest rate meeting will be held, which is9In the second half of the month and even throughout the entire month9The most significant event of the month. At the beginning of the month8The monthly non farm report has little impact on the trend of gold, and since then, gold prices have remained volatile. Normally, non farm employment reports may trigger a band trend, given that9The mid month Federal Reserve's interest rate meeting, which is also a quarterly meeting, therefore the market is concerned about8The monthly non farm payroll report is not very cold. Federal Reserve9The monthly interest rate meeting is clearly a big concern for investors, and the market is eagerly anticipating whether the Federal Reserve will revise its forward-looking guidance during this meeting.
　　
Federal Reserve Chairman Powell made it clear at the World Bank's annual meeting earlier that the Federal Reserve will adopt a new "average inflation" target, sparking market attention and debate. Federal Reserve9Before the monthly interest rate meeting, economists expected the Federal Reserve to link interest rate hikes to inflation in its new forward-looking guidance, while opponents believed that monetary policy would become very arbitrary unless the Federal Reserve clarified a timetable for average inflation levels. The mainstream market view is that it is unlikely that the Federal Reserve will release new forward-looking guidance at this meeting, as the current US pandemic is still severe and the economyVThere is no hope of recovery. Gold awaits confirmation of direction.
　　
Analysis of Gold Market Trend:
　　
Looking at gold this week, the overall price trend is still in a downward trend of volatility. At the beginning of the week, the volatility hit the bottom and rebounded, and the high point was under trend pressure, turning to continue to decline. The major monthly line is still bearish, and both the weekly high and low points are moving downwards, indicating that the adjustment of gold is still ongoing. The weekly price isMA5Daily line and10At the junction of the daily moving average, the technical indicators tend to fall, and at the same time, on Friday, it closed with a bearish candlestick, which is below the pressure fluctuation of the daily moving average.
　　
From a technical perspective, gold prices rebounded strongly on Thursday1966Above1970-1975It is the pressure range of the general trend rebound, where the price rebounds before it is touched and loses the daily increase, indicating that the current bearish energy is still relatively strong. After the daily line rises, it has closed at a negative line for two consecutive days, turning into a lower middle track, indicating that it is still in a volatile range and in the short term4On an hourly cycle, prices remain constant for two consecutive days1935-1940The upward trend of the nearby support oscillation did not break through the previous high on Friday, nor did it show a new low. There are not many directional signals in the short term. It is recommended to judge the trend of gold next week based on Monday's trend, and focus on a few points in the operating space. Pay attention to the upper level1955-1960Nearby pressure, followed by1958-1960Short term resistance, focus on below1930-1936Short term support, followed by1920-1925Nearby, the downward trend may touch again1900Near the checkpoint. Overall, in terms of gold trading strategy, the personal suggestion of Shangpin Yuan is to focus on a pullback and buy long, supplemented by a rebound at high altitudes, with a focus on short-term attention above1955-1960Frontline resistance, short-term focus below1930-1925Frontline support. In terms of investment, operational issues can be added to the author's communication. Attitude determines everything, and details determine success or failure. The article can only provide a temporary direction and idea. As for the specific entry points and timing of resolving the situation, please follow Lianzhen's official WeChat account:jy85839Will be provided in real-time.
　　
Crude Oil Message:
　　
Last week, crude oil prices broke free from the volatile market and continued their downward trend. Concerns about demand also quickly spread pessimistic expectations. Lianzhen believes that the decline in crude oil prices is not due to a significant deterioration in fundamentals, but rather to the accumulation of adjustment expectations and macroeconomic risk releases in the previous three months. The high decline of the US stock market has brought more uncertainty to the macro market, and the delayed implementation of the new round of economic stimulus plan in the US has cast a psychological shadow on the market. Coupled with Saudi Arabia's reduction in sales official prices, it confirms pessimistic sentiment. Due to a series of uncertainties, the current range of crude oil prices may not necessarily be at the bottom. But the short-term decline in oil prices lays the foundation for the upward trend in the fourth quarter, as oil prices45dollar/If there is a significant upward trend near the bucket, there must be strong cooperation from the demand side. The short-term downturn has suppressed potential supply growth while also promoting partial demand release, which is not a bad thing for the future, according toOPEC+Production reduction agreement, oil producing countries alliance to reduce production capacity every day by the end of the year770Million barrels to cope with the decline in demand caused by the COVID-19 pandemic and the global economic recession. from2021year1Starting from the month, the production reduction will be further reduced to58010000 barrels/Day, expected to continue until2022year4Saudi Arabia and Russia currently have the highest quota levels in the agreement.
　　
Analysis of crude oil market trend:
　　
From a daily perspective, crude oil rebounded and stabilized after a downward trend last Friday. The daily small bullish line closed, and after continuous declines, the daily line temporarily slowed down and did not continue to maintain a weak trend, indicating that bears are starting to slow down, and this round of decline is basically under pressure5The daily moving average is down, and currently standing at a preliminary level5Above the daily line, plusKDJTurning the corner in the oversold area of the third tier suggests a turning point, and a rebound in crude oil is imminent!
　　
From a four hour perspective, the downward trend has temporarily slowed down and turned into a volatile trend. After consolidation, it did not further weaken and break through the low point, but instead started to stabilize above the low point and fluctuate. Currently, the Bollinger Bands are starting to shrink,MACDGolden Fork Red can continue to increase in volume,KDJGolden cross, index50Nearby, the short-term moving average is in a sticky state, and the price is running above the medium track, indicating that the short-term trend will continue to rebound. Pay attention to the lower track below36.7Support bullish sentiment, upper level attention38.2Resistance, further attention39Nearby! Overall, in the short-term operation of crude oil today, Lianzhen's personal suggestion is to focus on rebounding at a high altitude, supplemented by a pullback and a long position, with a focus on short-term operations above38.5-39.0Frontline resistance, short-term focus below36.5-36.0Frontline support. Due to the fact that the author Lianzhen is not aware of the details of your trading positions and positions, it is difficult to provide corresponding strategies for unwinding. For those who need to unwind, please refer to the individual (official WeChat account:jy85839)
　　
————How should beginners correctly invest in gold and crude oil?
　　
　　1Control emotions - Investors must be calm and control their emotions. They must calmly respond to sudden changes in the market, otherwise they will miss out on opportunities due to indecision. It is best to be prepared to deal with various possibilities before entering the market, so that when encountering sudden changes in the market, one may not feel too surprised and at a loss.
　　
　　2Starting with small-scale trading - For beginners in the market, it is necessary to start with small-scale trading, gradually grasp trading patterns and accumulate experience, and then gradually increase positions.
　　
　　3Avoid being eager for quick success and instant benefit - there should be no desire for quick success and instant benefit in transactions. Investors should not enter the market based on their subjective desires in trading. Successful investors generally strictly separate their emotions from trading activities, and bear heavier risks based on the opposite market trend and personal wishes.
　　
　　4Be prepared to accept failure at any time - Gold investment carries risks, and trading failure is inevitable throughout the entire transaction. It is also an important way for investors to gradually learn from and accumulate experience. When faced with investment failure, only by carefully summarizing can investors gradually improve their investment ability, avoid risks, and strive for profitability.
　　
　　5Better miss than make mistakes - opportunities are always present, and seizing them requires a pair of bright eyes rather than quietly waiting for an empty opportunity.
　　
　　6Develop investment plans that are suitable for oneself - life requires planning, investment requires planning, and investment is not an overnight process. Only by strictly executing can one profit from it. So how to become a profiteer in the gold investment market is crucial.
　　
The above are some sincere suggestions from Lianzhen. If you are currently losing money, consolidate and consolidate the above knowledge points, and don't just be discouraged. The mentality is important on the road of investment, failure is not scary, what's scary is your unwillingness to summarize. If you always remain unchanged on the road of investment, then you are the true failure! No matter what kind of situation you are in now, Lianzhen hopes that these words can bring you some help! I am Lianzhen, an analyst who shares the same boat with you. I am accurate in my trading, ruthless in my stop loss, and stable in my profits without being trapped or locked in!
　　This article is written by Lianzhen (WeChat:jy85839）Contributing, I interpret the world economic news, analyze the global investment trends, and analyze the impact of crude oil, gold We have conducted in-depth research on commodities such as silver and others. Due to the delay in online push notifications, the above content is my personal suggestion. Due to the timeliness of online publications, it is for reference only and at our own risk. Please indicate the source when reprinting.