MEXGroup：美联储利率决议来袭，市场波动加剧

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Focus of foreign exchange market
美元方面，上周五，美元指数跌0.14%，主要是因欧元的走强施压美元。数据方面，美国8monthCPIUp from last month0.4%，基本符合市场预期，对美元影响也相对较小不大。但考虑到全球疫情仍然严峻，经济复苏的不确定性或将继续支撑美元。因此，短线预计美元下行空间有限，仍有走强的预期。

日元方面，上周五，美/日并没有什么波动。一方面日元受益于脱欧的不确定性，以及美国科技股的修正;但美元的相对强势，抵消了美/日的波动空间。此外，今日13:00，日本自民党总裁选举将进行投票，日元走势可能会出现较大波动，投资者可留意交易机会。

欧系方面，上周五，欧元涨0.26%，主要是因拉加德对欧元区经济的基调也不那么鸽派，并表示该行不以汇率为目标。但考虑到欧洲疫情重回三月水平，短线或将继续施压欧元。

英镑方面，英镑下滑0.08%。主要是因脱欧谈判的负面消息仍在继续发酵，市场担心英国与欧盟的贸易谈判可能破裂。短线继续维持英镑为偏弱结构。

In terms of commodity currency,上周五，商品货币集体上涨。一方面是因美元的回落;另一方面是受益于市场风险偏好情绪回暖，亚洲股市的走高以及美股的企稳，也提振了市场买入商品货币的预期。整体来看，短线维持澳元、纽元为震荡偏强结构。

commodity market
goldaspect,上周五，金价小幅下跌。主要是因欧洲央行和美国政府均未祭出进一步刺激措施;不过鉴于市场对经济复苏的担忧，以及全球股市的动荡。，短期维持其仍在1920-1960区间横盘整理。

In terms of oil prices,上周五，油价微幅上涨0.24%。主要是因股市的企稳，带动了风险情绪的回升。考虑到热带风暴“莎莉”在墨西哥湾形成 石油生产商开始撤离，短线油价还是有一定支撑;中线仍然偏弱。

stock market indexprospect
港股方面，上周五，恒指开盘高开高走，收盘上涨0.78%。考虑到美股三大指数涨跌不一，短线港股还是有一定压力。技术上看，继续关注24000Support and25000The pressure.

abstract
CFTCThe cash flow data shows that the short position in the US dollar is at its extreme value, so it is expected to rise in the short term with the inflow of funds and support. In addition, the long position in the euro is also at its extreme value.

Europe/USA and Australia/美空头可兑现部分利润，镑/US bears can continue to hold.

Economic Calendar

(The above analysis only represents our views on the market and is for reference only;There are risks in the foreign exchange market, and investment needs to be cautious.MEXNot for(Direct or indirect)Responsible for any profit or loss that may arise from the use of this information.)
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