MEXGroup：晚间专题技术报告2020-09-02

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Focus of foreign exchange market
In terms of safe haven currencies,日内，美元指数继续回升。一方面是因美国昨日8monthISMmanufacturingPMI好于预期提振了美元。另一方面，今晚20:15美国将公布8monthADP就业报告，目前市场预期为新增95万人，考虑到美国8月新增疫情确诊人数有所下滑，市场押注美国劳动力市场向好，较好的预期也提振了美元。投资者今晚可重点关注ADP就业人数，这或许会给本周五的非农就业报告提供前瞻指引。整体来看，虽然美元仍然较弱，但有企稳的预期。

On the UK side,日内，英镑小幅回落。一是因美元的企稳施压英镑;此外，今晚21:00 英国央行行长贝利即将发表的讲话，目前市场预计贝利将维持鸽派论调，强调需要用更多工具来恢复经济，不排除使用负利率。总的来说，这次讲话可能和上次的内容不会有太大的出入;但需警惕的是如果贝利的言论加强了市场对英国央行推出负利率的预期，英镑可能承压。

In terms of commodity currency，日内，澳元、纽元分化严重，澳元大幅走低，纽元大幅走高，并创一年多新高。主要是因日内澳大利亚二季度GDP萎缩严重，而维多利亚州的疫情也使得复苏之路蒙上了阴影。而纽元的上涨，主要是因新西兰联储主席奥尔在讲话中称他不担心汇率，汇率的走势和预期的一样，提振了纽元。

MEX Quantitative strategy year to date relative benchmarkS&amp 500 Total Return IndexAnnualized alpha(α)by13%。The quantitative model adjusts positions weekly and places orders at the opening on Mondays and closes positions on Fridays, with each currency facing a standard hand,Suggest setting stop loss at0.3%。在没有考虑实际杠杆下，MEXThe quantitative strategy has significantly outperformed the target since the beginning of the year. For details, please refer to the "Quantitative Topic: Construction Based on Momentum Reversal Strategy"G7货币对冲组合》。组合净值上周下跌1.97%。This week's combination and as of Beijing time9month2day16:23盈亏如下，利差(库存费)为正向。

commodity market
goldaspect,日内，金价承压回落。主要是因美元相对较为强势;此外，僵持已久的美国新一轮疫情刺激法案终于有了新进展，两党在薪酬保障计划和学校资金问题上达成了一致，金价承压。考虑到CFTC持仓数据显示，市场看多意愿有所降温，投资者依旧青睐于高涨的全球股市。因此，短线维持黄金为震荡偏弱结构。

In terms of oil prices,日内，油价整体较强。一方面是因美国经济数据较强。另一方面，今天凌晨的APIcrude oilInventory reduction636Ten thousand barrels, with a decrease exceeding expectations. Based on past experience,APIInventory data andEIAInventory data has a strong positive correlation, soEIA原油库存也可能下滑并支撑油价。

abstract
CFTC资金流数据显示，美元空头处于极值，但考虑到空头仍在持续增加，因此，短线美元回升将较为困难;后续可关注空头增加乏力时，预计才有资金流入并支持其回涨。另外，欧元、纽元多头也处于极值，同样可以参考美元分析逻辑。

Europe/美、镑/USA and Australia/US bulls can cash in some profits.

Economic Calendar

(The above analysis only represents our views on the market and is for reference only;There are risks in the foreign exchange market, and investment needs to be cautious.MEXNot for(Direct or indirect)Responsible for any profit or loss that may arise from the use of this information.)
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