MBG Markets:上周脱欧忧虑又起英镑回落，本周杰克逊霍尔全球央行年会来袭

Quantitative trading strategy
虽然前几周我们的量化交易策略净值有所回落，但回撤幅度相对有限，并且在上周基本已经企稳；值得大家注意的是，货币市场在2020年依然展现出了稳固并明显的动量反转效应。投资者下半年可继续参考我们的每周建议组合。
MBGQuantitative strategy year to date relative benchmarkS&P 500 Total Return IndexAnnualized alpha（ α） by13%. The quantitative model adjusts positions weekly and places orders at the opening on Mondays and closes positions on Fridays. Each currency is paired with a standard hand, and it is recommended to set a stop loss at0.3%. Without considering actual leverage,MBGThe quantitative strategy has significantly outperformed the target since the beginning of the year. For details, please refer to the "Quantitative Topic: Construction Based on Momentum Reversal Strategy"G7Currency Hedge Portfolio. The net value of the portfolio increased last week0.06%。本周组合及截至北京时间8month24day6:23The profit and loss are as follows, with a positive spread (storage fee).

Focus of foreign exchange market

避险货币方面，上周五，美元指数上涨0.48%；基本面来看，主要是因美国制造业和服务业PMI走强，暗示企业活动出现了扩张；另外，佛罗里达州和其他州的疫情缓解也增加了经济乐观情绪，支持美元。技术面来看，其实上周我们一直提示大家，有底背离的现象，有修复的可能。总体来看，反弹还未结束，但由于指标还在空方区间，行情会比较反复一些。

On the European side,上周五，欧元回吐涨幅，一是因经济数据的疲弱；二是因德国、法国和意大利的冠状病例增加。而英镑大跌，主要是因为上周五欧盟首席谈判代表巴尼耶称：谈判进展缓慢，完成脱欧谈判的时间已经所剩无几了，现阶段与英国达成协议似乎不太可能。鉴于今日欧洲数据方较为清淡，因此，短线维持欧元、英镑均有调整预期。

In terms of commodity currency，上周五，澳元回落。主要是因美元的走强，此外，澳大利亚疫情仍然未得到有效控制，也承压澳元。纽元方面，此前奥克兰新冠肺炎病例新增，也打击了消费者信心，并迫使政府推迟大选。掉期利率显示，在2021year7月之前，新西兰联储将降息40个基点左右，这也使得纽元承压下行。不过，随着新西兰继续遏制疫情，以及汇价基本已经反映了负利率预期，预计纽元短线下跌空间有限。

commodity market

goldaspect，上周五，金价一度大跌1.83%，主要是因美元走强以及美国经济数据强于预期，缓解了市场对经济复苏步伐的担忧。不过后面随着美元指数回落以及美债收益率下跌，金价尾盘较日低回升近30美元。鉴于美元目前仍有走强的预期，短线维持黄金为震荡偏弱结构，但目前下跌空间相对有限。

In terms of oil prices，上周五，油价跌逾1%，主要是因为欧洲的一些主要经济体经济复苏步伐的缓慢令需求反弹推迟施压油价。不过，鉴于美国热带风暴“马尔科”的影响，美国墨西哥湾区crude oil生产关停近6成，可能提振油价，因此，维持油价为震荡结构。

stock market indexprospect
港股方面，上周五，恒指收涨1.3%。盘面上，博彩股、在线教育板块走高，半导体板块、黄金及贵金属板块走低。鉴于美国经济数据显示，商业活动回升至扩张水平，道指走强，港股短线或有一定支撑。技术上看，继续关注24500Support and26000The pressure.

abstract
CFTC资金流数据显示，加元、美元空头仍处于极值，因此，预计短期随着资金流入并支持其回涨，另外，欧元、纽元、澳元多头也处于极值。

Europe/美、镑/USA and Australia/US bears can continue to hold.

Economic Calendar

Risk Statement and Important Notes
transactionforeign exchangeMargin and contract for difference trading involve high risks and may not be suitable for all investors. You may encounter losses exceeding the principal amount during trading.
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